Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models suggest that a west-to-east cold front will move slowly southward across the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Monday/Day 4, as an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across the eastern CONUS. Ample instability should evolve along the front to support afternoon storm development, but quasi-unidirectional flow with height, weak at low levels, may hinder prospects for severe storms despite ample mid-level flow. At this time, while some severe risk is apparent, potential appears too low to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. The front should continue shifting southward while weakening Days 5-6 (Tuesday and Wednesday), as weak surface high pressure settles into the eastern states. While thunder will be possible near the Gulf Coast Tuesday, and lingering over Florida Thursday, severe risk appears to be low. Model differences begin to increase substantially beyond Wednesday/through the end of the period. The ECMWF depicts a substantial mid-level short-wave trough and accompanying surface system moving into the Plains Day 8, while quasi-zonal flow aloft is depicted by the GFS. As such, predictability concerns preclude assessment of severe potential beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models suggest that a west-to-east cold front will move slowly southward across the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Monday/Day 4, as an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across the eastern CONUS. Ample instability should evolve along the front to support afternoon storm development, but quasi-unidirectional flow with height, weak at low levels, may hinder prospects for severe storms despite ample mid-level flow. At this time, while some severe risk is apparent, potential appears too low to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. The front should continue shifting southward while weakening Days 5-6 (Tuesday and Wednesday), as weak surface high pressure settles into the eastern states. While thunder will be possible near the Gulf Coast Tuesday, and lingering over Florida Thursday, severe risk appears to be low. Model differences begin to increase substantially beyond Wednesday/through the end of the period. The ECMWF depicts a substantial mid-level short-wave trough and accompanying surface system moving into the Plains Day 8, while quasi-zonal flow aloft is depicted by the GFS. As such, predictability concerns preclude assessment of severe potential beyond Day 6. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for locally damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough crossing the central/northern Plains is forecast to evolve into a closed low, that is then progged to drift eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region through the period. As this occurs, a surface low -- initially over the Minnesota vicinity -- will become increasingly occluded, and likewise will drift eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak triple-point low is forecast to shift northeastward across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through the day, while a cold front sags southward into western Kentucky/western Tennessee/Arkansas/Texas. By the end of the period, this front should extend from western Pennsylvania to the southern Appalachians, and then westward into Texas. ...East Texas to the Tennessee Valley... Daytime heating ahead of the cold front will combine with ample warm-sector dewpoints to support airmass destabilization. Mixed-layer CAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg in western Tennessee to 1500 J/kg or so into eastern Texas seems likely evolve, and should be sufficient to support development of scattered strong/locally severe storms. Updraft intensity will be aided by weakly veering/increasing flow with height through the mid troposphere, with shear sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. While a tornado or two may be possible, greater risk appears to be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. This risk should peak through late afternoon, after which diurnal cooling/stabilization should result in a gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe potential. ..Goss.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for locally damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough crossing the central/northern Plains is forecast to evolve into a closed low, that is then progged to drift eastward into the Upper Great Lakes region through the period. As this occurs, a surface low -- initially over the Minnesota vicinity -- will become increasingly occluded, and likewise will drift eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak triple-point low is forecast to shift northeastward across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys through the day, while a cold front sags southward into western Kentucky/western Tennessee/Arkansas/Texas. By the end of the period, this front should extend from western Pennsylvania to the southern Appalachians, and then westward into Texas. ...East Texas to the Tennessee Valley... Daytime heating ahead of the cold front will combine with ample warm-sector dewpoints to support airmass destabilization. Mixed-layer CAPE ranging from around 500 J/kg in western Tennessee to 1500 J/kg or so into eastern Texas seems likely evolve, and should be sufficient to support development of scattered strong/locally severe storms. Updraft intensity will be aided by weakly veering/increasing flow with height through the mid troposphere, with shear sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. While a tornado or two may be possible, greater risk appears to be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. This risk should peak through late afternoon, after which diurnal cooling/stabilization should result in a gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe potential. ..Goss.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will continue Saturday as a shortwave trough and mid-level jet move over the central Rockies and Plains. A lee low will deepen over the northern Plains with a surface trough trailing south into the southern Plains. Strong downslope winds are likely, along with dry conditions, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. ...Northern/Central Plains... Near the strong lee low, northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. While area fuels remain of mixed receptiveness, some antecedent drying Friday should allow for more widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions. ...West Texas and southern High Plains... As the lee trough intensifies, westerly downslope winds are likely across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will aid in bolstering surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong winds likely across the Rio Grande Valley to the Davis Mountains. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong diurnal mixing will favor low afternoon RH of 10-20%. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, several hours of critical conditions appear likely across southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, given stronger surface winds and little recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will continue Saturday as a shortwave trough and mid-level jet move over the central Rockies and Plains. A lee low will deepen over the northern Plains with a surface trough trailing south into the southern Plains. Strong downslope winds are likely, along with dry conditions, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. ...Northern/Central Plains... Near the strong lee low, northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. While area fuels remain of mixed receptiveness, some antecedent drying Friday should allow for more widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions. ...West Texas and southern High Plains... As the lee trough intensifies, westerly downslope winds are likely across much of eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will aid in bolstering surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong winds likely across the Rio Grande Valley to the Davis Mountains. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong diurnal mixing will favor low afternoon RH of 10-20%. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, several hours of critical conditions appear likely across southeastern New Mexico and southwest Texas, given stronger surface winds and little recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely this afternoon and evening over parts of the central US. A shortwave trough within northwesterly flow will move from the central Rockies to the southern Plains. A weak surface low will shift eastward over the Midwest as a cold front moves south into the Plains. Gusty winds and low humidity are expected near the front, supporting widespread fire-weather concerns amidst dry fuels. ...Southern Plains... South of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, southerly flow is forecast to intensify over much of the southern Plains and parts of the central MS valley. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph are likely through peak heating. The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted the majority of appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the northwest Gulf coast. This will support continued dry return flow, with afternoon RH values of 20-25%, colocated with the strong gusts. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over much of the southern Plains and central MS Valley, given the dry fuels and fire activity in recent days. A more focused corridor of critical conditions is expected across north-central Texas early this afternoon. Stronger surface winds are expected along and behind the front with gusts of 20-25 mph likely. Along with the stronger gusts, strong diurnal heating and the dry return flow will favor lower RH below 20% atop dry fuels. ...Central High Plains... Northwesterly downslope flow is likely over portions of the central high Plains today and tonight as the upper trough and cold front move south. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should support RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind gusts of 15-25 mph. While area fuels are only partially supportive given recent rainfall/snow, enough dryness exists to support sufficient fire-weather risk to maintain the Elevated area. ...Florida... Offshore flow is likely over much of the Southeast today as surface high pressure builds over the central Gulf Coast. Northerly flow is likely over the Peninsula with a relatively dry air mass. While winds most of the day will be modest, occasional gusts of 10-15 mph may overlap with RH values below 30% and areas of dry fuels. This could support several hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns given recent fire activity and little rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely this afternoon and evening over parts of the central US. A shortwave trough within northwesterly flow will move from the central Rockies to the southern Plains. A weak surface low will shift eastward over the Midwest as a cold front moves south into the Plains. Gusty winds and low humidity are expected near the front, supporting widespread fire-weather concerns amidst dry fuels. ...Southern Plains... South of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, southerly flow is forecast to intensify over much of the southern Plains and parts of the central MS valley. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph are likely through peak heating. The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted the majority of appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the northwest Gulf coast. This will support continued dry return flow, with afternoon RH values of 20-25%, colocated with the strong gusts. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over much of the southern Plains and central MS Valley, given the dry fuels and fire activity in recent days. A more focused corridor of critical conditions is expected across north-central Texas early this afternoon. Stronger surface winds are expected along and behind the front with gusts of 20-25 mph likely. Along with the stronger gusts, strong diurnal heating and the dry return flow will favor lower RH below 20% atop dry fuels. ...Central High Plains... Northwesterly downslope flow is likely over portions of the central high Plains today and tonight as the upper trough and cold front move south. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should support RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind gusts of 15-25 mph. While area fuels are only partially supportive given recent rainfall/snow, enough dryness exists to support sufficient fire-weather risk to maintain the Elevated area. ...Florida... Offshore flow is likely over much of the Southeast today as surface high pressure builds over the central Gulf Coast. Northerly flow is likely over the Peninsula with a relatively dry air mass. While winds most of the day will be modest, occasional gusts of 10-15 mph may overlap with RH values below 30% and areas of dry fuels. This could support several hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns given recent fire activity and little rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern Kansas. ...Synopsis... Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio Valley, and a second over the northwestern states. With time, the eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will likewise cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail. A few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to remain below 10% Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second half of the period. In tandem, a developing surface cold front is expected to shift across the Plains states overnight. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri vicinity overnight, ahead of this system. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri... As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late evening. Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas into northern and central Missouri. Given fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become capable of producing large hail. ..Goss.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A northwest flow regime will exist across the CONUS today, with multiple embedded waves. In general, minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast due to a relatively stable air mass due to high pressure. One such high will be situated over the Southeast and into the Gulf through the period, with minimal moisture return into southern TX. Another surface high will be centered over the Great Basin for much of the period. That said, thunderstorm chances will be limited to a small part of the Pacific Northwest, and from southeast SD across IA and into IL. Both areas will be beneath their respective shortwave troughs, with cool temperatures aloft supporting weak convection. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A northwest flow regime will exist across the CONUS today, with multiple embedded waves. In general, minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast due to a relatively stable air mass due to high pressure. One such high will be situated over the Southeast and into the Gulf through the period, with minimal moisture return into southern TX. Another surface high will be centered over the Great Basin for much of the period. That said, thunderstorm chances will be limited to a small part of the Pacific Northwest, and from southeast SD across IA and into IL. Both areas will be beneath their respective shortwave troughs, with cool temperatures aloft supporting weak convection. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more