SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. ...FL Keys... NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys. Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night. ...Southeast... General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY, and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL. Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Gulf Coast States... Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to diminish from south to north during the evening. Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/southern WI... A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI. Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper 50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability. Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection, low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted. ..Grams.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely today from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Four Corners region. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the start of the day1 period, then shift into the southern High Plains by 18z as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across northern Mexico/west TX into western OK. During the overnight hours, the mid-level speed max should increase in excess of 100kt as it moves into northwest MO. Latest model guidance suggests a surface low will develop over northwest TX by daybreak, then track into central OK by 18z, ultimately lifting into southern IA late, in concert with the 500mb speed max. Early this morning, leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be spreading across eastern NM into the TX High Plains. Boundary-layer moisture is surging northwest into this region as LLJ strengthens in response to the approaching trough. Deeper convective updrafts are now developing south-east of LBB, and this activity is expected to increase in areal coverage/intensity, leading into the start of the day1 period. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing at sunrise ahead of the mid-level speed max within a focused zone of low-level convergence. Upper 60s surface dew points should advance into southern OK ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings exhibit negligible inhibition with substantial MLCAPE (>2000 J/kg) shortly after sunrise. Additionally, 0-3 SRH should be quite strong (400 m2/s2) as low-level warm advection will remain strong across the southern High Plains due to a 50+kt LLJ. While numerous updrafts are likely early, supercells are expected. Have increased severe probabilities across this portion of the southern Plains to reflect the uncapped, strongly sheared/buoyant profiles at the start of the period. Tornadoes are possible with this activity, along with hail/wind. Strong, dynamic system will eject across the central/southern Plains and this will encourage a notable surface front/dry line into the I-35 corridor by 20z, extending into north-central TX. Weak inhibition should lead to at least scattered strong/severe thunderstorms developing south along the front/dry line across TX, while more concentrated thunderstorms will spread across OK toward the Ozarks, due to focused low-level warm advection. Environmental parameters strongly favor supercells, though a considerable amount of convection may result in complex storm modes from OK into MO/northwest AR. Tornadoes can be expected with this activity, some possibly strong, along with some hail/wind threat. Strong-severe convection will spread across central MO ahead of the short wave late in the period where less unstable air mass will begin to impede updraft strength. It's not entirely clear how far organized severe will extend downstream, but weak buoyancy over the mid MS Valley suggests this will be across northeast MO. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

MD 2199 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 703... FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...much of southeast Oklahoma into far western Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 703... Valid 040359Z - 040600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 703 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible near the warm front, but the overall risk has decreased compared to earlier this evening. However, trends will need to be monitored for changes in storm mode/structure. DISCUSSION...A line of storms, mostly elevated, moved across eastern OK and into western AR earlier this evening, outpacing the warm front to the south. Recently, observations indicate the front is making northward progress across southeast OK and into west-central AR. In addition, radar shows new development near this boundary. A rather tight temperature gradient still exists north of the boundary, suggesting a limited region for storms to produce tornadoes. However, this is also supporting lift and additional cells may regenerate over the next several hours. Given effective 0-1 SRH around 300 m2/s2 along the boundary, a brief tornado will be possible. ..Jewell.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35539589 35619425 35359381 34919378 34719391 34479422 34439481 34589547 34639589 34799621 35109628 35279627 35539589 Read more

MD 2197 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 702... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 702... Valid 040046Z - 040245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may persist through the evening, extending into far western Arkansas. Another watch will likely be needed prior to watch 702 expiration. DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms currently stretches from just south of the Tulsa area southwestward toward Durant OK, with significant lightning activity and cooling storm tops. Surface analysis shows that the boundary has not moved much, however, stronger elevated instability and moisture exists just above the cooler surface layer. GPS PWAT values are near 1.80" at Ft. Smith AR, and the 00Z sounding from SHV measured over 2.00". Given persistent southwest flow just off the surface, with around 40 kt at 850 mb, additional destabilization is possible ahead of the ongoing line of storms, and around the west side of the AR precipitation shield. Thus, theses storms may remain rather robust for several more hours, aided by substantial moisture flux and deep-layer shear. Even with somewhat cooler/skin layer temperatures, a few damaging gusts may occur. Tornadoes appear most likely as the main boundary gradually mixes north, and where it intersects the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33849634 34559603 35109573 35619580 35969516 35989460 35589403 34939379 34049407 33769470 33759606 33849634 Read more

MD 2198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040119Z - 040245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail risk may persist for a few more hours across portions of northwest Texas. The threat should remain too localized for a watch. DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters are ongoing along a trailing northeast/southwest-oriented low-level confluence zone in northwest TX this evening. Nearby VWP data indicates around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to the boundary, which combined with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to support loosely organized clusters for the next few hours. Isolated instances of severe hail (generally 1-1.75 inches) and locally severe gusts could accompany the stronger storms, though the risk appears too marginal/localized for a watch. ..Weinman/Smith.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32460068 32830070 33200022 33769940 33989879 33969844 33769825 33249825 32249971 32200034 32460068 Read more

WW 0703 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0703 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0703 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0703 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 703 TORNADO AR OK 040135Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 735 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and bowing line segments will likely persist this evening into the early overnight across the Watch area. In addition to a threat for severe damaging gusts, a couple of tornadoes are also possible as a low-level jet and enlarged hodographs remains across eastern Oklahoma into western parts of Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Fort Smith AR to 5 miles south southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 702... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are expected. ...01z Update... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will become increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels become uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the Plains. Otherwise, a larger complex of storms, that currently extends from the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor, especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will accompany the late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max. ..Darrow.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are expected. ...01z Update... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will become increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels become uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the Plains. Otherwise, a larger complex of storms, that currently extends from the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor, especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will accompany the late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max. ..Darrow.. 11/04/2024 Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW SPS TO 35 WSW ADM TO 10 SSW ADM TO 45 W MLC TO 40 W MKO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 ..THORNTON..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-029-063-069-077-085-091-095-121-123-127-040040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-277-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 702 TORNADO OK TX 032005Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of intense thunderstorms over southwest OK and northwest TX will track rapidly northeastward this afternoon across the watch area. Strong low-level shear will support a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Sill OK to 45 miles southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 701... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032040Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected and will pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Trends will be monitored for the need for a watch later this evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection has increased in coverage across western OK along the I-40 corridor in response to strengthening low-level warm advection and steady destabilization. MRMS VII and cloud top temperature trends suggest that much of the activity along and north of I-40 remains sub-severe, but signs of intensification have been noted in a few cells. The expectation is thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase as this activity spreads from western OK into northwest OK and south-central KS through the late afternoon and evening hours. While most convection will likely remain elevated, steady warming/moistening in the low levels may support a few surface based storms - especially where temperatures and dewpoints can reach into the low 70s and upper 60s respectively. 40-60 knot mid and upper-level flow over the region is supporting elongated hodographs favorable for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail (most likely between 1.0-1.75 inches) and severe wind gusts. Additionally, the low-level warm advection regime is yielding 0-1 km SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 (per regional VWPs), which will support a tornado threat if surface-based convection can be realized. While this potential is noted, weak inhibition and persistent ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms with a somewhat high probability for storm interactions and unfavorable storm modes as storms spread north/northeast with time. Trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance if semi-discrete, surface-based convection can be realized and pose a greater severe threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35839987 36069983 37699922 37949889 37999855 37809763 37329671 37059659 36699672 36379694 35989720 35779767 35619840 35489951 35589987 35839987 Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SPS TO 35 WNW ADM TO 25 N OKC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..THORNTON..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 702 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-027-029-049-063-067-069-077-081-085-087-091- 095-099-107-109-121-123-125-127-133-032340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LINCOLN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE TXC097-147-181-277-032340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON LAMAR Read more

WW 702 TORNADO OK TX 032005Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of intense thunderstorms over southwest OK and northwest TX will track rapidly northeastward this afternoon across the watch area. Strong low-level shear will support a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Sill OK to 45 miles southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 701... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W ABI TO 20 S SPS TO 25 SSE FSI TO 30 NNE CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 ..MOORE..11/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-077-083-133-237-253-337-363-399-417-429-441-447-497- 503-032240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN EASTLAND JACK JONES MONTAGUE PALO PINTO RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more