SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...20z Update... The Slight Risk was removed from portions of northeastern Kansas into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri. It appears there remains a conditional risk of a storm or two redeveloping in this region through the afternoon/late evening, but overall coverage of severe risk will remain low. Within this region, a pseudo stationary front/warm front is located, with large scale forcing weak in the absence of any pronounced upper-level trough. Through the afternoon and evening, low-level jet response is expected which will help augment weaker forcing and aid in thunderstorm development but consensus is mainly for storms across far western Missouri into central Iowa. Within this region, storms are expected to be largely elevated, with potential primarily being large hail and a severe gust or two. Overall, the severe threat is appropriately covered with a Marginal Risk given the likely low coverage of the severe threat. Across southern Texas, the Marginal Risk removed across the upper Texas Coast region to mainly encompass the area from Corpus Christi to Brownsville westward. The northern extent of the Marginal Risk continues along the Rio Grande into Big Bend. Damaging wind risk will continue across south Texas through the afternoon before redevelopment is expected across Mexico through the evening. This secondary round of convection will pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid- to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat. Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ...South Texas... Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning. This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However, considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau) and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe threat may occur with the stronger storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK TO NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail could be the primary hazard, but severe gusts and a couple tornadoes may occur. ...Central States... Primary changes with this outlook are to add a level 2-SLGT risk and expand the level 1-MRGL along the dryline through TX. A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough, with at least a few embedded shortwave impulses, will shift east from the West into the Central States by early Sunday. A northern/leading impulse will aid in cyclogenesis into Saturday evening over the Lower MO Valley. A southern/basal impulse will yield a separate cyclone over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border area. Boundary-layer moisture will be richer ahead of the southern cyclone beneath a stout EML. Guidance consensus suggests early evening thunderstorm development should occur along the northwest edge of the low to mid 60s surface dew point plume, centered on south-central KS/north-central OK. Additional storms will probably form northeastward along the front into the Lower MO Valley. The degree of convective coverage with southern extent is more nebulous, but there are signals for isolated cells as far south as the Edwards Plateau. Convection along much of the front northeast of OK should tend to grow upscale into clusters given the flow orientation relative to the boundary and initially moderate mid-level winds. A more favorable discrete supercell wind profile exists in OK, posing a conditional very large hail and tornado threat along this portion of the dryline Saturday evening. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast reasoning remains largely valid. Minor changes were made to the Southwest/southern High Plains Elevated area to account for recent guidance. Within the Blue Ridge Vicinity, dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible. Sustained winds still appear too light for highlights, however. Elsewhere, changes are as follows: ...Central Plains... An Elevated area was added to portions of central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. The expectation is for RH to fall to around 20% behind the surface trough where downsloping will occur. Duration will be the main uncertainty, but enough of the region should see Elevated conditions for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. ...Western Florida Peninsula... Wind speeds will be slightly higher than on Thursday while RH will probably be similar. Winds of 10-15 mph over very dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat along the western coast. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast reasoning remains largely valid. Minor changes were made to the Southwest/southern High Plains Elevated area to account for recent guidance. Within the Blue Ridge Vicinity, dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible. Sustained winds still appear too light for highlights, however. Elsewhere, changes are as follows: ...Central Plains... An Elevated area was added to portions of central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. The expectation is for RH to fall to around 20% behind the surface trough where downsloping will occur. Duration will be the main uncertainty, but enough of the region should see Elevated conditions for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. ...Western Florida Peninsula... Wind speeds will be slightly higher than on Thursday while RH will probably be similar. Winds of 10-15 mph over very dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat along the western coast. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS / LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...far southern Texas / Lower Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271841Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong gusts cannot be ruled out eventually over parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. DISCUSSION...A large, heavy-rain producing convective system continues to slowly propagate eastward, with newer development upstream into Mexico (see WPC MPD #0088). Midday soundings reveal deep, moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a high LFC. While the 18Z BRO sounding shows winds veering with height and substantial 0-1 SRH, the combination of poor low-level lapse rates and lack of any baroclinic boundary (outflow) thus far suggests little brief tornado risk. In addition, overall wind potential remains low as the deep moist profiles mitigate downdraft/evaporation potential. Although radar indicates little outflow at this time, a few strong gusts may eventually be generated as heating persist. For any brief/QLCS type tornado potential, this appears highly conditional on a substantial outflow boundary first materializing. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BRO... LAT...LON 26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759 26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850 26089895 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night. ...TX Coastal Plain to LA... After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening. These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night. ...Upper Midwest to NE.. Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing, but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving, highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume. Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential appears likely to remain marginal. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid- to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat. Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ...South Texas... Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning. This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However, considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau) and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe threat may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/27/2025 Read more

MD 0269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...Northeast KS into northern MO and far southern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271503Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe wind gusts will remain possible into late morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has persisted this morning from southern IA/northern MO into eastern KS, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While this convection has generally been sub-severe, some intensification has recently been noted near/south of Topeka, in closer proximity to the leading edge of very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z DDC sounding). With the low-level jet expected to veer and weaken with time, the longevity of the ongoing elevated storms remains uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail and strong to locally severe wind gusts may continue into late morning, given steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, and sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38999229 38839314 38539453 38009629 38119636 38749622 39329602 40509518 40899433 40539277 39979247 39399239 38999229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous forecast below for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous forecast below for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South Texas... The slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico toward deep South Texas by the end of the period. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. A low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas and multiple rounds of deep convection are expected. While regenerative convection and outflow will limit the northern extent of more appreciable destabilization, adequate buoyancy, a modestly steep lapse rate environment, and deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts and storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main threats, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning. As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region. Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South Texas... The slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico toward deep South Texas by the end of the period. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. A low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas and multiple rounds of deep convection are expected. While regenerative convection and outflow will limit the northern extent of more appreciable destabilization, adequate buoyancy, a modestly steep lapse rate environment, and deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts and storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main threats, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning. As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region. Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/27/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 27 13:00:02 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability remains a concern during the medium-range period. Models reveal notable differences even in the Day 4-5 time frame with respect to strength of the eastern U.S. upper trough, and associated evolution/development of the surface pattern. As the initial surface system moves offshore late in the Day 5 period (Tuesday morning), substantial divergence in solutions is evident with the next trough moving into/across the western CONUS. Given these differences, any severe potential beyond Day 5 cannot be quantified with any degree of confidence. With that said, a fairly widespread area of severe potential remains evident Day 4/Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving eastward across the Mississippi and Ohio and eventually the Tennessee Valleys. Northward advection of 60s dewpoints is expected ahead of this front, which will combine with daytime heating to boost mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, and potentially above 2000 J/kg farther southwestward along the front from East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the moistening/destabilizing pre-frontal boundary layer, development of strong/severe storms is expected near and ahead of the boundary during the afternoon -- potentially extending as far southwestward as East Texas. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, likelihood for supercell storms suggests potential for a few tornadoes as well. Risk will spread eastward through the evening across portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states overnight -- likely persisting through the end of the period. Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon, the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability remains a concern during the medium-range period. Models reveal notable differences even in the Day 4-5 time frame with respect to strength of the eastern U.S. upper trough, and associated evolution/development of the surface pattern. As the initial surface system moves offshore late in the Day 5 period (Tuesday morning), substantial divergence in solutions is evident with the next trough moving into/across the western CONUS. Given these differences, any severe potential beyond Day 5 cannot be quantified with any degree of confidence. With that said, a fairly widespread area of severe potential remains evident Day 4/Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving eastward across the Mississippi and Ohio and eventually the Tennessee Valleys. Northward advection of 60s dewpoints is expected ahead of this front, which will combine with daytime heating to boost mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, and potentially above 2000 J/kg farther southwestward along the front from East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the moistening/destabilizing pre-frontal boundary layer, development of strong/severe storms is expected near and ahead of the boundary during the afternoon -- potentially extending as far southwestward as East Texas. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, likelihood for supercell storms suggests potential for a few tornadoes as well. Risk will spread eastward through the evening across portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states overnight -- likely persisting through the end of the period. Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon, the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Saturday evening may pose local risk for hail and potentially strong wind gusts. ...portions of Oklahoma northeastward into Iowa/Illinois... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the forecast for Saturday across the central U.S. -- with models exhibiting notable differences with respect to evolution of the surface pattern. Additionally, the NAM in particular maintains strong capping across the warm sector, which will likely hinder convective development for much of the period -- and potentially limiting convective to being primarily elevated/nocturnal. At this time, it appears that a corridor for initial storm development will be over the eastern Kansas vicinity, as a cold front moves across the area trailing from a frontal wave/low shifting eastward across roughly the Kansas City area during the evening. Convection may evolve mainly to the cool side of this boundary as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops, though a few at least nearly surface-based storms are expected. Though mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms to evolve -- aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Large hail will likely be the primary risk, though a strong gusty or two may also occur. Expect adjustments to the risk area and/or risk level, as greater certainty evolves with time in this complex scenario. ..Goss.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more