SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SEP TO 15 ESE GYI TO 20 WNW JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-005-021-023-041-061-077-079-089-091-101-115-121-127-135- 042240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA CHEROKEE CHOCTAW DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-113-119-139-147-159-223-231-251-257-277-379-387-397-449- 467-499-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FANNIN FRANKLIN HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS Read more

WW 704 TORNADO OK TX 041655Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon across the watch area, with supercells and bowing lines capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. A strong tornado or two is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles northwest of Grove OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening. Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across central Oklahoma and western North Texas. ..Guyer.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with a slight expansion of ongoing Elevated highlights made to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18. ...FL Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18 to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A compact upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the Middle and Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. As the same time, another upper trough over the northern Rockies will dig south/southeast through the period, maintaining broad upper troughing over the West and into the Plains. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with the initial shortwave trough over the MS Valley will overspread east TX to the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure initially over northeast KS/northwest MO/southeast NE will lift northeast into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning. A cold front/composite outflow will extend from the Mid-MS Valley into east TX and the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will slowly shift east through the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. Strong mid/upper level flow and these low-level boundaries and surface low will focus some potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over WI and parts of southeast Texas to the Lower MS. ...East TX/Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning across east TX toward the TX coast as a cold front slowly progresses east. A corridor of modest instability will be in place ahead of the front from the TX coast/Sabine Valley into LA. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain poor. However, a moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F) and moderate low-level and deep-layer shear will support organized convection. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged, looping hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km. This suggests rotation may accompany convection, and a tornado or two will be possible, particularly across parts of LA into southwest AR where low-level shear will be somewhat more favorable compared to points further south near the TX coast. Otherwise, line segments and cells may also produce locally strong gusts. The severe risk should move offshore the TX coast by around midday/early afternoon, while persisting through the afternoon to early evening further north across LA and the southeast AR vicinity. Overall, severe risk should be tempered by poor lapse rates and only modest destabilization, along with generally weak large-scale ascent further removed from the ejecting upper shortwave trough. ...WI... Warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front moving from IA into WI will result in showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover through the morning. This will limit diurnal heating, through forecast soundings suggest some areas could warm into the mid 50s to near 60 F by mid afternoon. This could allow for weak destabilization, though may be ill-timed as low-level winds begin to veer with time. While this lends to uncertainty in severe potential, at least a low-end/conditional risk for a tornado or two, or locally strong gusts appears possible. ..Leitman.. 11/04/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 4 17:30:26 UTC 2024.

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0704 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Current surface observations show strong offshore flow over terrain-favoring areas of southern California, with sustained winds exceeding 20 mph, with higher gusts noted. Current observed surface RH values are in the 15-20 percent range, and these may lower further through afternoon with daytime heating. As such, Elevated highlights have been maintained over portions of southern California. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Northwest will reinforce a surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin through the afternoon, before the ridge deamplifies into the evening hours. As a result, a tight offshore pressure gradient will yield strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern California into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will peak early in the forecast period, when gusts upwards of 50-60 mph are expected across the wind-prone mountains and valleys of Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. Aided by downslope-enhanced warming/drying, these strong/gusty winds will overlap areas of 15-25 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, strong deep-layer westerly flow rounding the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Rockies will overspread the Texas Trans-Pecos region during the day. This will promote strong westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels are dry, the overall risk appears too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...OK/TX/MO/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather event later today as the upper speed max approaches. Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line. ..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 4 14:40:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041437Z - 041700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe/tornado threat is likely to increase by late morning. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is present from north Texas to much of eastern Oklahoma with dewpoints in the upper 60s. This has already yielded 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal surface heating. Given the minimal inhibition (per SPC mesoanalysis and regional 12Z RAOBs), expect widespread thunderstorm development by late morning to early afternoon. Moderate instability and strong shear will support supercells capable of all hazards. Parts of central and south-central Oklahoma (near the I-35 corridor) have the greatest uncertainty. Outflow from this mornings storms has advanced east of I-35 with low 60s dewpoints and northerly/westerly flow. However, strong, southerly flow is trying to stall this boundary and lead to northward/westward airmass recovery within this corridor. A tornado watch will eventually be needed, but it is unclear whether the threat will start to increase in the next 1 to 2 hours or closer to mid-day when the primary ascent overspreads the region. Trends will be monitored and a watch will be issued when an organized severe threat appears imminent. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33889847 34679833 35399776 36279652 36399579 36329531 35929498 34839505 34099554 33789591 33519652 33349771 33369825 33489886 33889847 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions -- the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX, somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm- frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK, moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK, then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to deep south TX. ...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term details. Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH), embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL, and enlarging hodographs. The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it. Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward- expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km. The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep ascent somewhat weaker than farther north. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024 Read more

MD 2201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest/South-Central/Central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041101Z - 041300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts is increasing across central Oklahoma, with some increase in the threat across southwest Oklahoma and adjacent far northwest Texas as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low between SNK and SWW in the Low Rolling Plains region of TX. A warm front extends northeastward from this low through northwest TX and south-central OK into southeast OK. Location of this front is roughly demarcated by the 70 deg F isotherm. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this boundary from far northwest TX into southwest OK, supported by both low-level warm-air advection and increasing large-scale ascent (attendant to the approaching shortwave trough). A few of the cells over west-central/southwest OK have become better organized over the past hour or so, with the cell in Tillman County exhibiting a notable forward surge while also producing a 55 kt gust at FDR. The threat for damaging gusts will continue with this developing line as it continues northeastward into central OK. The tornado threat should be limited by the low buoyancy and persisting modest convective inhibition. That being said, if this line is able to become surface-based, or even near-surface-based, there is enough low-level shear to promote circulations embedded within the line. While not evident at the moment, a similar evolution, where the elevated storms become organized into a more coherent line, is also possible farther south across far northwest TX. Overall convective trends will be monitored for a potential watch or watches across this region. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33060030 33800046 35769829 35969648 34619633 33819842 33060030 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX in later outlooks. Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies vicinity on D9/Tuesday. Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along some portion of the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad large-scale trough centered over the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread northern and central California. Over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range, boundary-layer heating and related mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15 percent RH. While fuel receptiveness may be a limiting factor in some areas, the Elevated highlights have been confined to areas that received less rainfall over the last week, and fuels should at least modestly support large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more