SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The notable changes on this update are to expand the Isolated Dry Thunder area into Nevada and to add an Isolated Dry Thunder area in portions of northeast Washington. Both of these changes reflect greater confidence in lightning occurrence in an environment with dry fuels and precipitable water values between 0.5-0.75 inches. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081540- VA Read more

WW 613 TORNADO NC VA CW 080645Z - 081700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 245 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...The tornado threat with T.S. Debby is expected to gradually expand northward and somewhat westward through midday, while lingering for several more hours (potentially past original Tornado Watch 612 expiration) in NC coastal areas formerly covered by that watch. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Goldsboro NC to 35 miles east northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 612. Watch number 612 will not be in effect after 245 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 14035. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1865 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1865 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 613... Valid 081259Z - 081430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue through the morning, and gradually spread northward with time. DISCUSSION...Occasional small supercells and possible tornadoes continue to be noted within the northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby, which is forecast by NHC to gradually accelerate northward through the day. The northeast quadrant will continue to be the favored area for tornado potential, due to having the most favorable wind profiles (with regional VWPs and the 12Z MHX sounding depicting 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2), as well as somewhat stronger instability, along the eastern periphery of the larger precipitation shield. This area of favorable buoyancy/shear overlap will gradually spread northward through the day, with some tornado potential eventually moving into parts of northeast NC and southeast VA, where very moist and relatively warm conditions are already in place. ..Dean.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34467739 34977877 35767911 36327903 36737772 37457663 37277618 36557572 35997554 35537549 35127563 34617649 34467739 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-weather threat today is for tornadoes from Tropical Storm Debby, in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper-level ridging has been suppressed considerably over the West, as a highly amplified northern-stream pattern takes shape over Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS. A compact but well- defined cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern MB -- will pivot southeastward then eastward over the MN/ON Boundary Waters region, then Lake Superior and adjoining portions of northwestern ON. As that occurs, height falls and strengthening cyclonic flow will spread over the Great Lakes, contributing to greater poleward advance of the deep-layer low accompanying T.S. Debby. At the surface, 11Z analysis shows a cold front from northwestern ON across western Lake Superior to west-central KS and southeastern CO, preceded by a strong outflow boundary across western MO, northwestern/central/southwestern OK, the southern TX Panhandle, and eastern NM just south of I-40. While supporting thunderstorm formation today, lack of greater shear will preclude enough severe potential near the boundary or front for an accompanying, unconditional severe risk. ...T.S. Debby: NC/VA... The tornado threat from T.S. Debby ramped up again overnight, with several strong mesocyclones and a few tornadic-debris signatures noted. Most of this activity has been occurring in response to two internal factors that continue: 1. Stronger low-level convergence/lift over the northeast quadrant of the system, helping to sustain both a persistent spiral band of embedded supercells and an occasional discrete/semi-discrete supercell outside the band; 2. Northwestward shift of favorable boundary-layer theta-e/buoyancy, as the inland rain shield and its stabilizing effects have shifted likewise, and as the cyclone as a whole has made landfall and moved roughly the same way. Though the more deeply overland path of Debby will foster gradual weakening of the wind fields overall, per NHC wind-radii forecasts, sufficiently strong low-level wind shear and enlarged hodographs will remain over a favorably moist and unstable sector well northeast of center. In that sector, both band-embedded and discrete supercells should continue to form and move northwestward as the system (and favorable sector) shift poleward. This will spread the tornado threat into more of northeastern NC and into southeastern VA with time today, perhaps reaching parts of central VA by evening. See SPC Tornado Watch 613 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat. Refer to NHC advisories for latest track/intensity forecasts for Debby, as well as tropical watches/warnings. ...Southern Great Basin, southwestern Colorado Plateau... Isolated severe gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening from thunderstorms over portions of northern AZ and southern UT. The northern periphery of a trough in the easterlies (equatorward of the remaining ridge) will continue to move slowly westward over western AZ and the lower Colorado River Valley today. This includes a well-defined MCV -- produced by yesterday's convection over southern AZ -- and now moving west-northwestward roughly over I-10 in western AZ. These features are expected to tighten the midlevel flow gradient northward toward the ridge just enough to encourage slow westward motion of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the Mogollon Rim, North Rim/Kaibab Plateau, and other higher- elevation areas, where heating will preferentially remove MLCINH soonest. Activity in the transition zone between richer moisture to the south, and deeper mixing/dry-thunder potential to the north, will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts from either wet or dry downbursts, with small clusters/cold pools possibly forming also. Peak MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range should overlie a very deep subcloud mixed layer supporting even larger vales of DCAPE, with surface dewpoints commonly remaining in the 40s to low 50s at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Dean.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081340- VA Read more

MD 1864 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 613... Valid 080947Z - 081145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes will continue through and after dawn. DISCUSSION...Multiple small but tornadic supercells have moved across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby. Thus far, the tornadic cells have occurred along the eastern periphery of a larger precipitation shield, where rich moisture and upper 70s F temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg. Some increase in low-level flow has been noted from the KRAX and KMHX VWPs, with 0-1 km SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 for observed storm motions. This magnitude of low-level shear/SRH will continue to support tornado potential with any sustained supercell structures through and after dawn. The greatest short-term threat may continue in the vicinity of a convective band from east of Raleigh to near/west of Morehead City. However, the threat may expand to the north and east with time, into areas where little precipitation is currently occurring, and somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible after sunrise. An eventual increase in tornado threat is also possible to the west of WW 613, depending on trends regarding ongoing precipitation and potential for modest destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36167904 36857767 37357631 36447563 35917538 35477544 34697619 34427693 34337760 35217924 35937935 36167904 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081040- Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

MD 1863 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 612... FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 612... Valid 080619Z - 080815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat will continue overnight. New watch issuance to the west of WW 612 is possible. DISCUSSION...Occasional small supercells have been redeveloping across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within an environment characterized by rich tropical moisture and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2 per the KMHX VWP). This process may continue through the overnight, as convection continues to spread inland within the northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby, with an attendant tornado threat. Thus far, the western extent of the threat has been limited by an extensive rain shield further inland across parts of central/eastern NC. However, this rain shield may tend to shift somewhat westward with time, with potential for some destabilization and an increasing tornado threat to the west of WW 612. New watch issuance is possible in order to address the potentially expanding threat. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34267806 34467830 34827849 35327842 35837807 36237759 36357623 36327611 36087561 35707538 35127562 34547622 34277685 34117752 34157777 34267806 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-080840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-080840- VA Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... As a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains suppresses the western US ridge today, flow aloft will shift to become more northwesterly with monsoonal moisture shifting southward. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will be possible along the fringes of the deeper monsoonal moisture across southern/central Utah into western Colorado and western Wyoming. In these regions, precipitable water values around 0.50-0.75 inch and mainly mid-level moisture will result in high-based convection, with potential for new ignitions amid receptive fuels, and little precipitation. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more