SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0022 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into north central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 091242Z - 091515Z SUMMARY...A mix of snow, freezing rain and occasional sleet is expanding from West Texas to the Red River. DISCUSSION...A precipitation shield has expanded across West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and southern Oklahoma as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Many observation sites across West Texas have observed freezing rain this morning with relatively light accumulation. However, as precipitation intensifies, isolated greater accumulation amounts have been observed (KABI reported 0.14 inches of ice accretion between 11Z and 12Z), with this likely continuing through the morning. While some mixed phase precipitation may occur this morning while the boundary layer is moistening across Oklahoma and North Texas, expect mostly snow across this region by mid-morning given the thermal profile from the KOUN 12Z RAOB. Farther south, expect freezing rain to persist this morning before temperatures should rise above freezing by late morning as low-level flow/warm air advection strengthens. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31920225 33740148 34269947 34449781 34379690 33129725 31239960 30620038 30140132 30220209 31050242 31920225 Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...far east-central New Mexico...much of the TX Panhandle...and southwest and south-central Oklahoma. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091326Z - 091630Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates expected this morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate snowfall has expanded across the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. As the boundary layer continues to moisten and isentropic ascent maximizes this morning, expect heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour from far eastern New Mexico to south-central Oklahoma. The heaviest rates are expected from 14Z to 17Z. Some locally higher rates, perhaps approaching 1.5 inches per hour, are possible across parts of the southern Texas Panhandle where a deeper dendritic growth zone and elevated convective instability (185 J/kg MUCAPE on the 12Z AMA RAOB) are present. After 17Z, snowfall rates will likely weaken across the entire region amid veering/weakening 850-700mb flow. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35040353 35520178 35560014 35429764 35189639 34929581 34369598 34219790 34460187 34270346 34620373 35040353 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 9 09:43:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday at mid-levels, a trough will move eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard as another trough moves through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast, as another strong cold front moves southward through the central states. A relatively cold and dry airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday morning. While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west-central into southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... Temporary upper ridging will occur over the southern Plains tonight, as the large-scale eastern trough moves out of the OH Valley, and a deep shortwave trough swings east across northern Mexico. Given high pressure over much of the Plains and eastern CONUS, the surface air mass will remain relatively cool and stable. Ahead of the Mexican wave, warming/moistening will occur atop the cool stable layer, with expanding areas of precipitation over NM, TX, and into OK late. 00Z soundings from EPZ to MAF already shows modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, with little CAPE currently. However, weak elevated instability is expected to develop overnight, primarily from the latitude of El Paso to Midland TX southward. Even so, lift will be weak, with only sporadic lightning flashes expected. ..Jewell.. 01/09/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 8 23:36:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 8 23:36:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to the southern CA coast through the extended period where dry, and at times windy, conditions are expected to continue for the next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of recent precipitation, rain/snow chances, and cold temperatures should limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Fri and D6/Mon to D7/Tue - Southern California Coast... Moderate easterly low to mid-level winds are expected to persist from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday morning across far southern CA as an upper shortwave trough slowly translates east/southeast. 15-25 mph winds will likely be ongoing along the western slopes of the coastal terrain at the start of the forecast period. The ongoing offshore wind event has established a very dry air mass along the southern CA coast that is expected to persist through Friday. While winds are expected to diminish through the day, a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the morning hours. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough along the West Coast with a building surface high over the northern Great Basin during the D6/Mon to D7/Tues period. This synoptic regime is characteristic of previous critical fire patterns for the southern CA coast, and the signal for this regime has been fairly consistent in sequential model runs and among various deterministic/ensemble solutions. Confidence in forecast details remains very low at this range due to considerable spread regarding the evolution and intensity of the upper wave, though the general consensus appears to be that mid/upper-level winds for the Mon/Tue system will not be as strong compared to the ongoing offshore flow event. This perhaps signals a less intense offshore flow event overall, though critical LAX-TPH pressure gradient thresholds may be met based on ensemble probabilities. Given the persistent signal and notable fire activity across the Los Angeles region, 40% risk areas have been introduced for D6/Mon and D7/Tue when the offshore flow regime should become established. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The only change from the previous forecast is to extend the Critical risk area southward through San Diego county to the Mexico border. Latest guidance continues to suggest a resurgence in offshore winds Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours/early-morning Friday. Based on recent ensemble guidance, the onset of critical conditions is probable/becoming more prevalent by around 18 UTC in the vicinity of the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana mountains. An easterly wind shift after 00 UTC should lead to more isolated elevated/critical conditions across Ventura and Los Angeles counties, but will promote increasing downslope winds through the San Jacinto mountains and areas southward during the early-morning hours Friday. High-res solutions and ensemble guidance show a sufficiently strong signal for 20+ mph winds and RH values near 15% to warrant a southward extension of the Critical risk area. Fire weather concerns regarding southern Florida remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more