SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern through north central Virginia and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161755Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany showers spreading east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, across the Mid Atlantic, this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling (generally in the 850-500 mb layer) spreading across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, insolation is contributing to modest steepening of lapse rates and destabilization sufficient for low-topped convective development. As this spreads east-northeastward toward the coastal plain through 3-5 PM EDT, it remains unclear whether this will deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. However, to the south of a large and still deepening cyclone, activity is embedded within strong southwesterly to westerly deep-layer mean wind fields, which still appears to include 50-60 kt in the lowest 3 km AGL. Although a relatively cool and moist near-surface environment may not be particularly efficient contributing to the downward mixing of momentum, heavier precipitation in the stronger convection may still support occasional potentially damaging gusts reaching the surface. ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 39307913 39667718 38727610 36117916 35598103 35918088 36978026 39307913 Read more

MD 0109 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern New York...Northern New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 161328Z - 161930Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will likely develop across parts of northern New York and northern New England this morning. Further south into parts of east-central New York and central New England, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough will quickly move through the southern and central Appalachians this morning. A surface low will deepen and move northeastward into the Northeast. Ahead of the system, a band of strong warm-advection was located from New York eastward into the southern New England, where widespread precipitation is ongoing. The freezing line is currently located from southern New York eastward into southern New England. A zone (about 100 miles wide) of freezing rain and sleet is located to the north of the freezing line. This freezing rain and sleet will spread northward over the next few hours. A changeover to rain will occur as the freezing line moves northward. In addition, areas that are experiencing snow may changeover to freezing rain. Freezing rain rates could exceed 0.05 inches per hour. Further north into northern New England, surface temperatures are in the teens and single digits. The cold air in the low to mid-levels will make snow the primary precipitation type. As strong warm advection and isentropic lift increase across the region, the development of heavy snow will likely occur in many areas. Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43197054 42797083 42357095 42227144 42257364 42237611 42237809 42297855 42527872 42797875 43207863 43387841 43667772 43957661 44097625 44377600 44717549 44937500 44987440 44997194 45087130 45287091 45867027 46206992 46346945 46366911 46216857 46036820 45266735 44906732 44666748 44396787 44166854 43756959 43407029 43197054 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may occur over parts of southern Florida and the Keys on Monday. ...Synopsis... As upper short-wave troughing departs the Northeast Monday, briefly zonal/westerly flow aloft will prevail. Later in the period, however, gradual amplification of the flow field will begin over the West, as a short-wave trough digs southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic will trail southwestward into southern Florida early in the period. Meanwhile, a broad area of lee-side low pressure will prevail over the central/southern High Plains, as strong westerlies aloft persist ahead of the gradually amplifying western trough. A resulting, broad zone of low-level warm advection will remain across the central and southern Plains region through the period. ...South Florida and the Keys... As the trailing portion of the cold front drifts slowly southward across southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the first half of the period, showers and isolated thunderstorms appear likely. The convection should shift southward with time in tandem with the progression of the front, with any lingering lightning overnight likely to have moved south of the Florida mainland. ...Elsewhere... Showers -- and a few sporadic lightning flashes -- are expected to occur with a diurnally driven peak in activity, from the Pacific Northwest east-southeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity, in tandem with progression of the short-wave trough. Any lightning activity should remain sparse, thus precluding the need for a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

MD 0110 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTHERN CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern Florida...Southeast Georgia...Eastern Southern Carolina...Far Southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 161348Z - 161545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind gusts will continue this morning from parts of northern Florida northeastward into southeast Georgia and the Carolinas. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the central Carolinas. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints in the 60s F are contributing to weak instability. The RAP has MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg in most areas across the Atlantic coastal plains. In spite of this, frontal forcing is strong near the line, which will likely help the line to maintain strength over the next few hours. With the strong low to mid-level flow in place, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, the line is expected to continue to produce isolated damaging gusts, especially along the parts that are more organized. The wind-damage threat will likely persist into the mid to late morning as the line moves through the Atlantic coastal areas. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 34418045 34568024 34737997 34937948 35057909 35057872 34797820 34577794 34147788 33797819 32927916 32018041 31068128 29818247 29698323 29918374 30338399 30818389 31358330 32418216 34038081 34418045 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE VLD TO 30 S SAV TO 25 NW CHS. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-089-121-161640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON NASSAU SUWANNEE GAC039-049-051-127-191-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM GLYNN MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-161640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER Read more

WW 13 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 161230Z - 161800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southeast/Coastal Georgia Southern/Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 730 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east-southeastward to the Atlantic Coast this morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity, although a brief tornado may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Charleston SC to 40 miles west of Jacksonville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 11...WW 12... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0014 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 14 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 161440Z - 162000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving convective line will move east across the Watch area. Scattered damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard before the severe threat moves east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 35 miles southwest of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 26050. ...Smith Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH TO 30 E TLH. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 12 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/15Z. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC185-161500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ABY TO 40 NNW VDI TO 10 W AGS. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC091-107-175-209-271-279-283-309-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE EMANUEL LAURENS MONTGOMERY TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161052Z - 161315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are expected this morning across parts western and central South Carolina. Weather watch issuance remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a squall line across parts of central Georgia extending northeastward into far western South Carolina. The line is being supported by strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and by forcing along a fast-moving cold front. Ahead of the line, instability is very weak, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F across western South Carolina and northeast Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Greenville/Spartanburg has about 85 knot of 0-6 km shear with 40 to 50 knots of south-southwesterly flow located just above the surface. An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible with the stronger cells within the line. Given the very strong low-level shear, meso-scale vorticies will be possible in the line with embedded cells that remain surface-based. However, forecast soundings in far western South Carolina have a sharp near surface temperature inversion, which should keep any severe threat isolated and localized. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 35208161 35168219 35048258 34768279 34268314 33768337 33478343 33058296 33018208 33158120 33408066 33838035 34298023 34458026 34728042 34848055 35088106 35208161 35208161 Read more

MD 0108 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 11...12... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Georgia...Far Southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...12... Valid 161132Z - 161330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11, 12 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible as a squall line moves eastward across the remainder of Georgia this morning. Southern South Carolina will also be affected. Weather watch issuance may become necessary later this morning, to the east of the ongoing watches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a squall line located in Georgia from Albany northeastward to about 50 statute miles west of Augusta. The line is located ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are mostly in the 60s F, with the RAP showing weak instability in place. In spite of this, the line has remained organized likely due to strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and frontal forcing. Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will remain intact for several more hours this morning, as it approaches the Atlantic coast. The strong low to mid-level flow, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will likely enable the line to produce severe gusts, especially with bowing segments that form within the line itself. Very strong low-level shear will also likely support an isolated tornado threat in the short-term. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31238148 31728108 32248076 32668075 32948117 33148191 33218289 32988335 32238389 31798434 31478461 31278464 30998454 30818373 30798235 31238148 Read more

WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ABY TO 35 NE MCN. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC023-081-091-093-107-125-153-163-167-175-209-235-271-279-283- 301-303-309-315-319-161240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS MONTGOMERY PULASKI TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 11 TORNADO GA TN 160705Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 11 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Western Georgia Far Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning from 205 AM until 900 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging winds up to 60-70 mph as it moves quickly eastward early this morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Chattanooga TN to 55 miles south southwest of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Gleason Read more