SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0017 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Ohio into northern West Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060339Z - 060745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow in the vicinity of Wilmington, OH will spread eastward into West Virginia tonight. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour possible. DISCUSSION...Strong ascent from a potent 850 mb jet as well as an approaching shortwave trough will promote efficient dendritic growth and snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour tonight. Recent observation from Lebanon, OH in conjunction with KILN radar data suggest moderate snow with embedded heavier pockets is occurring. Snowfall is primarily focused north of the Ohio River (per KILN dual-pol data) and the expectation is for that to continue. These heavier snowfall rates will eventually shift eastward into West Virginia. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39468449 39698441 39988331 39788046 39687918 39257873 38737907 38508019 38618173 38888324 39268445 39308458 39468449 Read more

MD 0015 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 052312Z - 060415Z SUMMARY...Additional freezing rain, moderate to heavy at times, is possible through about midnight to 1 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain continues to be observed in portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Continued ascent from low-level warm advection and the approach of the upstream trough will promote continued precipitation into this evening. Regional radar shows some heavier pockets of precipitation moving eastward from western Kentucky/southern Indiana. Dual-pol radar and surface observations indicate that a transition to snow is roughly along the Ohio River and should remain in that general vicinity. By midnight to 1 AM EST, weakening ascent and drier air moving in aloft will likely begin to limit overall precipitation rates and potential for ice accumulations. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38158726 38648664 38558409 38218279 37848256 37628298 37548379 37548469 37768671 37938710 38158726 Read more

MD 0016 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of central Louisiana...much of Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 060002Z - 060200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible across the watch area, along with locally damaging winds. DISCUSSION...A relatively wide squall line with embedded cells extends from northeast MS into central LA as of 00Z. Gusty southerly winds continue to bring warming northward ahead of the line, with the instability/theta-e axis roughly from south-central LA to near Jackson, MS. The warm front remains draped from eastern MS into southwest AL. Shear profiles remain strong just ahead of the cold front, with effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. Stronger low-level shear exists farther east into northeast MS/AL/TN, but the air mass remains stable for surface-based parcels at this time. Hodographs do remain quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes, given a discrete cell and/or stronger core within the line. Otherwise, given the relatively poor condition of the air mass even over the northern Gulf of Mexico (where dewpoints are only in the low to mid 60s F), it does not appear that appreciable instability will be able to develop very far east of the existing watch, at least over the next few hours. As such, an addition watch is not expected, but surface trends will continue to be monitored. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30589275 31539145 32729026 33978934 34088889 33758854 32848825 31968842 31118925 30789078 30389222 30349269 30589275 Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 2 TORNADO AR LA MS 051935Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Arkansas Eastern and Southeast Louisiana Southwest into Central and Northern Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop ahead a squall line this afternoon and evening. The more intense storms will likely be supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. Scattered damaging gusts and a risk for a tornado will also accompany the squall line as it pushes east across the Watch area this afternoon through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Oxford MS to 75 miles south southeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BPT TO 30 SW POE TO 25 W ESF TO 25 NNW ESF TO 25 SSW MLU TO 15 E MLU. ..JEWELL..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-021-043-059-079-115-052340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE RAPIDES VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BPT TO 25 S IER TO 30 SW MLU TO 20 N GLH. ..LEITMAN..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-052240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC003-011-021-043-059-067-069-073-079-115-127-052240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES VERNON WINN TXC199-241-351-052240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER NEWTON Read more

WW 1 TORNADO AR LA TX 051625Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana East and Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify and increase in coverage across the Watch area. A few semi-discrete storms are expected to develop ahead of the main band of storms. The storms developing ahead of the thunderstorm line will pose a risk for a few tornadoes, including the possibility for a couple of strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts will also be possible with the more intense portions of a squall line expected to develop and move east across the Watch area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Monticello AR to 70 miles east southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Smith Read more

MD 0014 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1... FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0014 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...central Louisiana into far southeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 1... Valid 052119Z - 052245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes from central Louisiana into far southeast Texas the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS just ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes, especially across central Louisiana, over the next few hours. Additional more semi-discrete cells have developed across the modestly unstable warm sector ahead of the QLCS. This activity is occurring in a strongly sheared environment, supporting organized convection with intermittent rotation. However, stronger surface pressure falls and large-scale ascent will continue to shift northeast of this area. This may ultimately result in a somewhat suppressed severe risk compared to areas to the northeast across northeast LA into western MS. ..Leitman.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31989299 32149279 32159229 32059201 31839194 31269210 30859237 30369289 30109400 30069458 30329477 31989299 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused along the southern California coast through the extended period as an offshore flow regime becomes established during the middle portion of the work week. Elsewhere across the country, cool/moist conditions will limit additional fire concerns. ...D3/Tuesday to D5/Thursday - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a amplifying upper trough over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D3/Tue into late D4/Wed. Surface pressure rises across the northern Great Basin in the wake of this upper wave will promote an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast. Increasing mid/upper-level northeasterly winds will augment flow across the terrain and contribute to the overall magnitude of downslope winds. Substantial warming/drying is anticipated in the lee of the coastal mountains as the offshore flow regime becomes established, and should result in a prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather concerns beginning D3/Tue and persisting into D5/Thu. Recent 15 UTC RAP solutions show offshore winds beginning to increase by around 18 UTC Tuesday, which aligns with a recent trend in global ensembles that depict 850 mb flow strengthening late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This shift towards an earlier onset of strong downslope winds suggests critical fire weather conditions may begin by Tuesday afternoon/evening and warrants an upgrade to 70% risk probabilities. Peak wind speeds (and hence the greatest fire-weather threat) are still anticipated early Wednesday morning when most guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will be strongest. The pressure gradient will gradually abate on Thursday with some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated to isolated critical conditions remain likely through at least Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts remain the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may still occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change to this outlook was to trim thunder/severe probabilities from the west given the rapid eastward advancement of the mid-level trough, and corresponding surface cold front, progressing across the central MS Valley. Low-level moisture advection continues across the Lower MS Valley as a 50+ kt low-level jet remains in place, contributing to marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and strong low-level shear (evident via sizable, curved hodographs and accompanying 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per recent regional VADs). As such, any supercell or QLCS segment that can intensify and become sustained in the warm sector (especially near or just south of the warm front over central LA/MS) may produce damaging gusts and/or tornadoes. The best chance for a strong tornado this afternoon or evening will be with discrete supercells ahead of the main band of cold frontal thunderstorms. Storms are still expected to outpace the warm sector somewhere in AL, where a decrease in severe potential is likely later this evening. Please see MCDs 11 and 12 for more short-term severe weather information. ..Squitieri.. 01/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. Read more