Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable period will persist through at least Friday/D6 as a large upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS eventually exits the East Coast around Saturday/D7 morning. Behind this large-scale feature, zonal flow may briefly develop before another trough possibly develops to the west. Predictability is very low for the latter part of the D4-8 period with large model spread, and as such no severe areas are warranted. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WEST TOWARDS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to move southward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Southern California late Sunday night into early Tuesday Morning. By Monday afternoon, strong mid-level northerly flow will reach Southern California, with an amplified mid-level ridge following behind the trough and moving east out of the Eastern Pacific. These upper-level features, in combination with strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West, will result in a tight surface pressure gradient directed offshore. The pressure gradient magnitudes suggest strong Santa Ana winds developing as a result, lasting from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Recent high-resolution forecast guidance has increased the confidence in strong surface pressure gradients and strong surface winds enough to introduce an Extremely Critical area, extending from the San Gabriel Mountains westward to the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Susana Mountains. Forecasts continue to show strong surface pressure gradients from LAX->DAG anywhere from -8 mb to -11 mb, resulting in sustained surface winds of 35-40 MPH (gusting 60-80 MPH). These dry and windy conditions, coupled with dry and receptive fuels, will result Extremely Critical conditions supportive of rapid wildfire onset and spread. Critical fire-weather highlights extend into San Diego county, where recent model guidance continues to increase confidence in strong offshore flow and dry conditions overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS from Sunday into Monday. Some dry and windy conditions may develop over northern Arizona, associated with strong mid-level flow aloft, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ..Halbert.. 01/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. On Tuesday, a large upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southwest, and will progress eastward into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another backside speed max will dive southward across the Rockies, while a ridge remains along the West Coast. At the surface, substantial high pressure will be in place from the Great Basin to the East Coast, with dry offshore winds along the Gulf Coast. This high will shift east through the period, but another centroid is forecast over the Intermountain West. There is a low chance of weak elevated instability developing into Wed morning over southern FL, in association with the aforementioned initial upper trough. While some thunderstorms may affect parts of the Gulf of Mexico, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit even weak thunderstorm potential over land. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Jewell.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Seasonably cold, stable conditions will generally prevail across the U.S. through this period and beyond. A blocking mid-level ridge, centered over the northeastern Pacific, may undergo some suppression and shift inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest coast. However, positively tilted, large-scale downstream troughing likely will be maintained across much of the remainder of North America, reinforced across much of the Southwest by another digging short wave trough. A more notable downstream short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate across the northern Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes, after bottoming out across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, as a prominent ridge builds across the subtropical western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models indicate that associated forcing for ascent will support more substantive deepening of an initially modest surface frontal wave, as it migrates offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the Canadian Maritimes mid day through late tonight. In the wake of the cyclone, cold surface ridging will continue to build to the lee of the Rockies, with the frontal zone demarcating the leading edge of the cold intrusion advancing through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Peninsula and away from the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, low-level moistening and daytime heating may contribute to a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization across the central Florida Peninsula. It appears that this will peak during the early afternoon, aided by weak mid-level cooling. However, guidance also suggests that warm sector clockwise curved low-level hodographs may maximize over inland areas prior to mid morning, before tending to shrink and trend more linear as the deepening surface low progresses northeastward into and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. If at least weak boundary-layer destabilization can take place prior to weakening of the low-level shear and forcing for ascent, the environment might become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a tornado or locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, potential for scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development may linger over portions of the central Florida Peninsula into this afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact northeastern Gulf coastal areas between the Florida Big Bend and Tampa, and adjacent portions of northern Florida, overnight. These may pose at least some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...01Z Update... To this point, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization has remained confined to the open northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Within this environment, sustained weak convective development has been occurring along a near-surface confluence zone and more elevated downstream zone of low-level warm advection extending east-northeastward across and inland of the Florida Big Bend vicinity. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with an approaching low-amplitude wave now crossing the northern Gulf, within the subtropical westerlies, further development and gradual intensification of this convection may occur this evening, mainly offshore (to the west-southwest of the Big Bend). More notable intensification may commence toward and particularly after 05-06Z, as a vigorous short wave trough continues digging southeast of the southern Rockies, and contributes to upstream amplification of large-scale mid/upper troughing now encompassing much of North America. More substantive deepening of the northeastward migrating frontal wave is generally not forecast until this mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow. However, at least some model output suggests that pre-frontal southwesterly 850 mb flow may begin to strengthen overnight (to 40-50 kt by 09-12Z) in a corridor along/just ahead of the aforementioned convective band. In addition to contributing to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, it is possible that near-surface moistening and warming may becoming conducive to increasing potential for strong surface gusts or a tornado across coastal into adjacent interior portions of central/northern Florida. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Southern California - Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On the upstream side of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough and belt of strong low/midlevel northerly flow will overspread southern CA. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will shift slowly eastward over the eastern Pacific, while surface high pressure strengthens over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across southern CA, with magnitudes indicative of a strong Santa Ana wind event. Guidance is in good agreement, depicting a LAX-DAG gradient around -7 to -8 mb, with some guidance showing the gradient as low as -10 to -11 mb (peaking around 12Z-14Z on Day 4/Tuesday). This gradient, coupled with the strong upper-level support, will yield very strong/gusty northeasterly surface winds amid single-digit to lower teens RH from Day 3/Monday night into Day 4/Tuesday. 70-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridor, and the potential for Extremely Critical conditions is increasing over portions of western Los Angeles County into Ventura County. Critical probabilities have also been expanded southward into San Diego County, where confidence in strong offshore winds and low RH has increased. From Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the Intermountain West, potentially favoring another increase in the offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. Current indications are that the upper-level support and gradient will be weaker than Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday, though elevated to critical conditions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 18 21:31:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 18 21:31:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is a slight east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots) with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4) spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...FL Panhandle into Southern GA... Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon. Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal, with no severe threat anticipated. The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are currently offshore moving northward into the region during the afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado. The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow morning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Sunday), cold air will continue to dominate most of the CONUS. While some locally breezy conditions may develop over portions of northern Arizona, meteorological conditions and fuels are not supportive of fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across central Florida through Sunday afternoon. ...Central FL... Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move south across the FL Peninsula through the period. Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak, MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 01/18/2025 Read more