No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 10 19:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0031 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST GA INTO PARTS OF SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Northeast GA into parts of SC Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101350Z - 101745Z SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation may increase through the morning. DISCUSSION...The eastern portion of an extensive precipitation shield is currently spreading across northeast GA into parts of SC. Evaporative cooling and saturation of an initially dry column (as noted on the 12Z CHS sounding) will allow for some increase in winter precipitation rates through the morning. As initial saturation occurs, occasionally moderate snow and/or sleet rates may develop (as noted in upstream observations), though there may be some tendency toward a liquid precipitation phase and freezing-rain potential with time and eastward extent, as warm advection above the surface continues to increase. Some ice accretion will be possible where near-surface cold/dry advection allows subfreezing temperatures to persist through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34668331 34808306 34688236 34528157 34348095 34008018 33807988 33497976 33217979 33068006 32968036 32938070 32958118 32958170 32978217 32998271 33138340 33768294 34668331 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Occasional thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions may occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0030 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL/GA...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...northern AL/GA...southern middle TN Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101019Z - 101515Z SUMMARY...An increase in winter precipitation rates is possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...An extensive precipitation shield is gradually spreading eastward across the Southeast early this morning, in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower MS Valley. Precipitation rates across northern AL/GA have thus far been limited by very dry antecedent conditions (as noted in the 00Z BMZ and FFC soundings), but saturation and evaporative cooling of the column will support an increase in winter precipitation across the region with time this morning. The evolution of precipitation type remains uncertain through the morning, due to the competing influences of initial evaporative cooling, increasing warm advection above the surface, and maintenance of modest near-surface cold/dry advection from the east/northeast. Snow may persist as the dominant precipitation type from far northern AL into middle TN, with rates potentially approaching an inch per hour as large-scale ascent increases and the column saturates. From north-central AL into northern GA, mixed precipitation appears more likely, with forecast soundings depicting near to slightly above-freezing temperatures from the surface to around 700 mb once saturation occurs. A general transition from snow/sleet to sleet/freezing rain/rain is possible across these areas. Moderate to locally heavy snow/sleet rates will be possible as the column initially saturates, while some ice accretion may eventually occur where subfreezing near-surface temperatures can persist as precipitation gradually transitions to a liquid phase. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34618333 35118555 35288666 35458794 34838814 34708861 34478934 34168929 33808899 33358820 33128717 33028501 33038397 33238330 33528303 33828296 34618333 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely across parts of the middle Gulf Coast. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern, an embedded low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough will continue to settle south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Ozarks and Midwest. Trough-preceding warm/moist advection will continue to result in widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated/episodic thunderstorm potential focused along the middle Gulf coast where weak elevated buoyancy exists. Surface-based buoyancy should generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. But given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and near-coastal surface wave, there is some potential that gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier convective precipitation, could occur along the immediate coast from far southeast Mississippi to far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0029 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...Central/northern AR into northern MS and western TN Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 100842Z - 101345Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of near/above 1 inch per hour remain possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing early this morning across parts of far eastern OK into central/northern AR, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains towards the lower MS Valley. Low-level warm/moist advection and favorable upper jet dynamics will continue to support an extensive precipitation plume through the overnight. Surface observations and recent dual-pol data from KLZK and KNQA suggest the transition between snow and mixed precipitation types has remained relatively stationary to the south of Little Rock and Memphis (with some oscillation) over the last 1-2 hours, and a subfreezing column was maintained on the 05Z LZK sounding, though with near 0C observed between 850-750 mb. Precipitation rates will remain supportive of moderate to locally heavy snow through the early morning across parts of central/northern AR, with an increase in snow rates expected with time into western TN and far northern MS. Some mixing will remain possible along the southern portion of the MCD area, especially where somewhat stronger low-level warm advection persists across northern MS. ..Dean.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 34709429 35499418 36219360 36429297 36379136 36089041 35748914 35648874 35508829 35228808 34798831 34608945 34499080 34539291 34499369 34529411 34709429 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwest to westerly mid/upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS for much of the Day 4-8 period. Strong surface high pressure also will dominate much of the forecast period, with continental and offshore low-level trajectories maintaining a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain low through the end of the period given a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday. At the surface, a low will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A trailing cold front attendant to this low will sweep east-southeast across the Mid and Lower MS Valleys. A secondary surface low is expected over the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping richer moisture offshore the western/central Gulf coasts. As a result, a continued dry and stable airmass will persist ahead of the aforementioned cold front, and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore the TX/LA coasts. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a cold and dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0028 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 100403Z - 100900Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain should continue across central and southern AR over the next several hours, with freezing rain also expected to gradually spread into MS with time. Accretion rates of .06 in/3 hr are possible in spots. DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm-air and moisture advection continues to overspread the Lower MS Valley as a pronounced mid-level trough approaches. Wintry mixed precipitation persists across portions of southern into central AR, with several instances of freezing rain noted by surface observations. Surface temperatures hover around or just below the freezing mark over several locales, and this should continue through the overnight hours, until the primary precipitation band clears the region. While some 925-850 mb warming is expected within the strong low-level WAA regime, surface wet bulb temperatures below 0C should support continued freezing rain tonight. A couple instances of .06 in/3 hr accretion rates may occur within the heavier portions of the main precipitation band. Freezing rain may develop into northern MS around or before 09Z, as also shown by some of the 00Z HREF guidance. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33609409 33679412 34259382 34739241 35018976 34968856 34668827 34278839 33978922 33789059 33509191 33169284 33239392 33609409 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more