SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... A closed low over the Missouri vicinity at the start of the period (Friday morning) is expected to devolve into an open wave that will move quickly eastward across the eastern U.S., and into the western Atlantic overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the Illinois/Indiana vicinity will move eastward across the lower Great Lakes region through the day, before redeveloping eastward near the New England Coast/coastal Canadian Maritime Provinces. A trailing cold front will move across the Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states through Friday afternoon, to the East Coast area during the evening, and then offshore into the western Atlantic before midnight. By the end of the period, the weakening/trailing portion of the front should be moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Central Gulf Coast region... Showers and a few thunderstorms -- ongoing at the start of the period -- should accompany the advance of the cold front across the southeastern states Friday. Very weak instability at best is forecast, which should greatly hinder severe potential. Still, with strong/veering flow with height, a stronger storm or two may evolve, particularly from late morning into early afternoon. Strong/gusty winds that may approach severe levels, or even a brief tornado or two, cannot be ruled out before storms weaken/shift east of the area by early evening. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday, crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the Ozarks through 31/12Z. At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the end of the period. ...East Texas to western Mississippi... As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time. While the meager instability should temper the overall risk, favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight. ..Goss.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will drift slowly across the Southwest on Wednesday and start to accelerate east by the end of the period. As this upper low advances east, a low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Plains with a sharpening surface cold front from southeast Oklahoma to central Texas by the end of the period. ...Southern Plains... Richer low-level moisture remains in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. However, by mid-morning it will start to advance inland as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the mid-level low. This will continue through the day with gradual elevated instability developing from South Texas to North Central Texas. A few elevated thunderstorms may move across Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon, but these storms should be weak amid weak elevated instability. By around 03Z, the combination of increasing instability (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and increasing isentropic ascent with the strengthening low-level jet should result in widespread thunderstorm development across Central and North Texas between 03 and 06Z. These storms, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and strong (50+ knots) of effective shear, may have an isolated hail threat. Through time, particularly after 06Z, surface based instability will develop across central and south-central Texas as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. In this narrow corridor of greater instability ahead of the front after 12Z, a few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, will be possible. However, the overall threat from this activity is expected to remain muted due to weak (<6 C/km) low-level lapse rates. ...New England... An elongated, 100+ knot mid-level jet will extend from northern Minnesota to southern New England at the beginning of the period and shift east through the period. A surface low will move quickly from eastern Ontario to the Atlantic Ocean off the Maine coast during the morning to early afternoon. As this occurs, a cold front will move quickly east as line of convective showers (perhaps snow squalls given the strong flow), first across New York and then across the rest of the Northeast. Slightly warmer conditions across southern New England may support more mixed-phase with graupel and perhaps some liquid which may result in enough charge separation for some lightning. In addition, the very strong lower tropospheric flow (in excess of 50 knots at 2km) will support windy conditions, perhaps capable of some wind damage across portions of southern New England. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has waned beneath the upper low across California and Arizona. A few lightning flashes could persist tonight beneath the upper low, but given the boundary layer has already started to cool, expect any additional lightning to be quite isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity has waned beneath the upper low across California and Arizona. A few lightning flashes could persist tonight beneath the upper low, but given the boundary layer has already started to cool, expect any additional lightning to be quite isolated. ..Bentley.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D2/Wednesday through D3/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation across the central/southern Plains. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains D3/Thursday, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor a period of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. Zonal flow behind this departing system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 28 21:58:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 28 21:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will persist over the CONUS with a slow-moving southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts and northwest Mexico. In the presence of steep lapse rates, a few lightning flashes will be possible across southern California and northern Arizona through around sunset. No thunderstorms are expected elsewhere as cool/stable conditions prevail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX to the Lower MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper low/trough and attendant surface front. Southerly low-level flow will allow Gulf moisture to advance northward ahead of the surface front from east TX into MS. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will largely remain near/south of the I-20 corridor, with better quality dewpoints remaining closer to the coast. The corridor of relatively higher dewpoints will also become increasingly narrow/pinched off with north and east extent after 00z. Furthermore, forecast soundings show lackluster midlevel lapse rates with eastward extent. This should result in a fairly confined area of elevated instability sufficient to support organized convection amid strong vertical shear. As such, severe potential is expected to quickly decrease with eastward extent during the nighttime hours. Nevertheless, strong storms are expected to persist along the eastward-advancing surface front through the day across east TX. By late afternoon into early evening, a low-level jet will increase as convection encounters a somewhat more moist boundary layer across LA. This may result in a brief increase in severe potential across portions of LA and adjacent MS when a period of favorable shear overlaps with better instability/quality dew points. Convection will likely remain elevated regardless, but strong to severe gusts are possible, in addition to a few instances of hail. While poor low-level lapse rates and limited surface-based instability will temper the tornado risk, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and curved with the increasing low-level jet around 00z. If low-level thermodynamics evolve more favorably than forecast guidance suggests, a tornado or two may be possible. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Southern Plains... A southwest flow/warm advection regime is forecast across the southern Plains on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low/trough migrating east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. East/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf and southern Plains will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into portions of central and north TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be particularly strong, but a Pacific front is forecast to sharpen and shift east into central to north TX overnight. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight in conjunction with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values to around 500-750 J/kg evident in forecast guidance. Favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater then 35 kt, and straight/elongated hodographs above 2 km suggest organized, elevated thunderstorms are possible. Strong low-level inhibition due to poor low-level lapse rates and a cool nocturnal boundary layer will preclude surface-based instability/convection. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for isolated hail with strongest thunderstorm cores. Some forecast soundings suggest low-level inhibition may be somewhat less across eastern portions of the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area near the very end of the period. While the risk of surface-based convection is conditional across this area, if a storm can become so, enlarged/curved low-level hodographs and favorable low-level shear suggest some risk for a tornado and/or strong wind gusts could materialize. Given the conditional/low-end nature of the risk during the last 1-3 hours of the forecast period, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Southern Plains... A southwest flow/warm advection regime is forecast across the southern Plains on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low/trough migrating east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. East/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf and southern Plains will transport 60s F dewpoints northward into portions of central and north TX. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be particularly strong, but a Pacific front is forecast to sharpen and shift east into central to north TX overnight. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen overnight in conjunction with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values to around 500-750 J/kg evident in forecast guidance. Favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater then 35 kt, and straight/elongated hodographs above 2 km suggest organized, elevated thunderstorms are possible. Strong low-level inhibition due to poor low-level lapse rates and a cool nocturnal boundary layer will preclude surface-based instability/convection. Nevertheless, conditions will be favorable for isolated hail with strongest thunderstorm cores. Some forecast soundings suggest low-level inhibition may be somewhat less across eastern portions of the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area near the very end of the period. While the risk of surface-based convection is conditional across this area, if a storm can become so, enlarged/curved low-level hodographs and favorable low-level shear suggest some risk for a tornado and/or strong wind gusts could materialize. Given the conditional/low-end nature of the risk during the last 1-3 hours of the forecast period, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). ..Leitman.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more