SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A cold, continental-polar airmass is in place across the much of the Lower 48 today due to a 1045-mb surface high centered over the ND/Canada border region. Dry/cool offshore flow this morning has led to tranquil conditions across much of the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf coastlines. As a cold front pushes south across the central into the southern Great Plains, low-level flow will veer across the northwest Gulf Coast with onshore flow beginning mainly tonight. Thunderstorm potential in this region will be negated by the onset and limited duration of moisture return into the TX Gulf Coast. Cool/dry conditions will be pervasive across much of the CONUS. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A surface cold front is in the process of clearing far south FL and the Keys this morning. In its wake, expansive high pressure will dominate much of the central CONUS. Across the western states, a weak mid-level shortwave trough will advance from the Northwest towards the central Rockies through the period. With cool and/or dry conditions expected across a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential appears limited through tonight. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow today across California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. This will promote windy and dry conditions from southern Arizona into New Mexico. Across western Texas into southern New Mexico, ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Within these regions, overlap of relative humidity to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (gusting locally higher) will be possible. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will likely extend into northeastern New Mexico. However, fuels in this region are below the 50th percentile which will preclude the need to include additional Elevated or Critical areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of thunderstorm activity are forecast across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A trough will depart the eastern US today, with zonal flow temporarily settling in across the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will be moving southward across the Florida peninsula early in the period. A storm or two may linger into the early D1 period along the departing front, however, coverage will remain sparse before quickly moving into the coastal waters. Flow will begin to modify Monday afternoon/evening, as a belt of enhanced upper level flow ejects and a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Breezy westerly flow will remain across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and surface cyclone development across the central High Plains with moisture return beginning across the far southern Plains. Diurnally driven shower activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies in association with the deepening trough. A lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in this region, but coverage will remain below 10 percent for inclusion of thunder areas. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Negligible thunderstorm potential should persist across much of the CONUS tonight. Isolated low-topped showers progressing into southwest FL should diminish over the next few hours as a weakly convergent cold front moves south. With scant buoyancy and pronounced dryness/moist-adiabatic lapse rates above 750 mb (as observed by the 00Z MFL/KEY soundings), the prospects for deep convection capable of lightning appear slim. ..Grams.. 02/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 16 21:18:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 16 21:18:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western Texas. Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more