SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. ...Discussion... A mid-level jet streak across the Upper Midwest at 12Z Thursday will move quickly through the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and amplify the mid-level trough approaching the eastern CONUS. As this trough sharpens and the surface front becomes more defined, some weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of this surface front as temperatures warm into the 60s with dewpoints approaching 50F. The combination of weak instability and convergence along the cold front may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon an evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. Ahead of these features, dew points will increase into the mid to upper 50s into the Ohio Valley. The steady increase in moisture along with mid-level cooling from the trough will allow a narrow region of instability ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop from western Kentucky, southern Indiana north and eastward into the Great Lakes along the front and move eastward through the afternoon and evening. A stronger storm or two along the front in western Kentucky/southern Indiana could produce gusty winds, however, a relatively narrow corridor of instability and meager moisture will likely keep this threat low. Overall, mainly scattered sub-severe storms are expected. ..Thornton/Guyer/Lyons.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon an evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. Ahead of these features, dew points will increase into the mid to upper 50s into the Ohio Valley. The steady increase in moisture along with mid-level cooling from the trough will allow a narrow region of instability ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop from western Kentucky, southern Indiana north and eastward into the Great Lakes along the front and move eastward through the afternoon and evening. A stronger storm or two along the front in western Kentucky/southern Indiana could produce gusty winds, however, a relatively narrow corridor of instability and meager moisture will likely keep this threat low. Overall, mainly scattered sub-severe storms are expected. ..Thornton/Guyer/Lyons.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northern/central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...01z Update... Modifications were made to thunder to account for ongoing thunderstorm activity across South Dakota and Nebraska and to remove thunder chances across Colorado. As a shortwave impulse continues eastward this evening, cooling aloft and steep lapse rates will allow for sufficient instability for a few additional thunderstorms to develop across Nebraska and into portions of western Iowa/southern Minnesota. These are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Broyles.. 02/26/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 25 23:56:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 25 23:56:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0426 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 051200Z Overall fire weather concerns will generally remain low through the rest of the work week as a cold front and surface high progress southward into the Southern Plains and Rockies through D3/Thursday. The synoptic pattern will begin to transition late this week into the weekend. An upper ridge over the western CONUS will be impacted/broken down by a Pacific cyclone late this week, as it moves onshore near southern CA. Attendant to this feature, surface cyclogenesis will commence D5/Saturday across the Southwest over AZ and western NM. Confidence is now high enough to introduce low critical probabilities from southwestern NM into far southeastern AZ, where the associated pressure gradient will tighten and increasing mid-level south-southwesterly flow in the base of the low are expected. Similar conditions appear possible D6/Sunday into West TX and southern NM, though there are still uncertainties regarding both the progression/compactness of the first cyclone, and the approach of a second Pacific trough. Given the lack of recent rainfall across these regions, fuels should remain receptive to fire starts and spread regardless of exact weather conditions, and subsequent forecasts may result in the introduction of additional low probabilities D6/Sunday. Early next week, specifically D8/Tuesday, the aforementioned mid to upper trough is expected to impact the Rockies and Southern Plains. Widespread, increasing westerly downslope appears likely by this time. However, differences in the extended guidance regarding the timing, depth, and location of this feature leave confidence too low for an inclusion of probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern California. ...Discussion... An amplifying mid-level trough will continue to sweep eastward across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the system may support sufficient instability to permit isolated convective development -- and possibly a few lightning flashes. Greater potential for convection -- and associated lightning chances -- will remain offshore over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, a mid-/upper-level low will move eastward into northern and central California overnight. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support sporadic lightning, from within the broader area of convective precipitation. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream, with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies, downstream of a cyclone moving into southern British Columbia. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, moving off the Northeast coast this evening. The second wave is also forecast to continue eastward (perhaps slightly east-southeastward), moving through the northern Plains this evening and into the Upper Midwest by early tomorrow morning. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly behind this second wave, progressing southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and UT. At the surface, a low will move across the northern/central Plains just ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. Strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few thunderstorms near this surface low as it moves over the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A similar scenario is anticipated farther south, where some isolated thunderstorms are possible this in the vicinity of a weak secondary surface low over central KS. Continued mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment ahead of this wave will contribute to a persisting potential for isolated thunderstorms from the Mid MO Valley into southern WI/northern IL late tonight/early tomorrow. Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur across western CO where modest buoyancy could develop amid strong boundary-layer mixing and cooling mid-level temperatures. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent within this environment could support a few thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/25/2025 Read more