SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to the western upper trough. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ..Bentley.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A relatively dry and/or stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS today, with high pressure centered over the Great Basin and lower MO/mid MS Valleys. Strong west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern tier of states, around the southern periphery of a large upper-level cyclone over central Canada. The greatest chance for general thunderstorms will be relegated to the FL Peninsula, where a stalled boundary will exist. Here, mid 70s F dewpoints and daytime heating will yield around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and midlevel lapse rates will be poor. Shear will be weak, but outflow will likely be produced as storm coverage increases during the afternoon over the interior. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 1 21:48:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 1 21:48:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today into tonight. ...20z Update... Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging -- prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region, as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward. Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather risk will remain low. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across most of the northern half of the U.S. Wednesday, while weak ridging affects the southern half of the country. A remnant cold front extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico will keep the moist/tropical airmass suppressed, with a dry airmass expected across the U.S. away from the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm potential will remain similarly suppressed, mainly near and south of the cold front across the Florida Peninsula. Very weak lower to middle tropospheric flow across this area precludes any appreciable severe risk. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA. Ample low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong daytime heating. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe activity expected. Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns. A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern AZ, western NM, and southern CO. While the strongest cells could produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity is expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across more of the Great Lakes with time. That will occur as a synoptic- scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and James and Hudson Bays, through the period. This stronger flow will remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/ ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts of CO/NM/AZ. Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ, with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt) midlevel easterlies. A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder, within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024 Read more