SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON...NORTHERN NEVADA...FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ..Bentley.. 10/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped from the Great Lakes into the central Plains. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary. Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Weak deep layer flow will persist across the southern half of the CONUS, where mean upper level ridging will remain in place. A more amplified/fast upper flow patter will develop over the northern U.S./Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will sag south and east across much of the Midwest. Meager boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will limit instability, but a few thunderstorms may develop overnight across IA/IL. Severe storms are not expected. Isolated thunderstorm are expected further south across the central Gulf Coast region where deeper boundary layer moisture will be in place. Sufficient instability and a weak disturbance moving northward across the Gulf into the South will support isolated to scatter thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast into FL. Weak deep layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...01z Update... Isolated thunderstorms may continue across portions of the FL Peninsula the next few hours. Weak vertical shear and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 2 21:26:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 2 21:26:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook. Previous forecast discussion appended below. ..Mosier.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on morning observations and latest guidance. 12 UTC 925 and 850 mb analyses continue to show the low-level thermal trough oriented from southeast WY into the eastern Dakotas - largely aligned with the surface trough. As such, the warmest/driest conditions will likely remain offset slightly from the strongest winds (which are already increasing to 15-20 knots on either side of the surface trough) through the afternoon, and limits confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. The Elevated risk areas were both expanded based on where observations are already showing dry/windy conditions, and on morning HREF guidance with a slight bias towards recent HRRR solutions that have accurately captured morning trends. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border today. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains tonight. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. Fuels are moist from central Kansas southward, but north of this region, fuels have dried out and some threat for large fire exists. The greatest change to the prior Day 2 fire weather outlook was the addition of much of the northern Plains across the Dakotas and into far eastern Montana. Fuels in this region are very dry, and forecast guidance indicates 15 to 25 mph winds with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity are possible across much of this region. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on this afternoon. Most of this region should experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, with some critical conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming where the Critical delineation is present. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. This flow will weaken considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. The strongest flow aloft will be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e, which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary front draped across north-central FL. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries (including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer the coasts) merge. Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will preclude organized severe potential. Localized strong gusts are possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow- layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2 inches). Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough will move through the Northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. An attendant cold front will move eastward along with the trough. This system will then move into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday before digging southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Thereafter, models forecast upper ridging to build in across much of the CONUS by the middle of next week, broadly reducing severe weather potential in the process. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Forcing from the upper-level trough will be strong on Saturday. Storms could develop along the cold front and wind shear would be sufficient for organized storms. Uncertainty remains rather high as the quality of moisture return along the western flank of the anticyclone to the east will be key to overall magnitude of severe potential, should any materialize. ...Upper Ohio Valley... As the upper trough and cold front continue eastward, some destabilization could occur ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon. As with Saturday, moisture quality ahead of the front remains a major question. Severe potential remains uncertain. Read more