SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat is low. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Ohio Valley. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is primarily responsible for scattered convection that currently extends from western PA, arcing southwest along the Ohio River into southeast MO. While much of this activity is not producing lightning, isolated thunderstorms are noted along a corridor of somewhat stronger instability that extends into central OH. However, 00z sounding from ILN does not exhibit appreciable buoyancy, though lapse rates are fairly steep and moist. Deepest updrafts will continue to produce lightning for the next few hours, but overall thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/27/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. 16 UTC surface observations show breezy post-frontal conditions across western OK into the TX Panhandle with 25-35 mph winds sampled within the lowest 1 km, but above a shallow nocturnal inversion (sampled by the 12 UTC OUN, AMA, and DDC soundings). The expectation remains that winds will further strengthen through the afternoon as these stronger winds begin to mix to the surface amid full diurnal heating. Across southern NM/southeast AZ, very dry conditions are noted in surface observations with strong mid-level winds depicted in recent upper-air analyses, which supports the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Weinman.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day, moving through the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of this wave, moving through Upper MS Valley late tonight/early tomorrow. Evolution of these two waves will help sharpen the cyclonic flow aloft over much of the Upper Great Lakes region and vicinity. At the surface, a low attendant to the central Plains shortwave trough was recently analyzed over central IA. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across southeast KS and western OK to another low over northwest TX. The central IA surface low is forecast to track eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period in the northern Lake Erie vicinity. As this low moves eastward, the attendant cold front will progress eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are expected along this front as it moves eastward. A few isolated thunderstorms also possible across northeast TX and the Arklatex late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here, a few elevated storms are possible behind the surface front, amid modest low/mid-level moistening and convergence along the 850-mb front. ...Mid-South into the Middle OH Valley... Limited moisture return is anticipated ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, but mid 50s dewpoints could be in place from southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN prior to the passage of the cold front. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface temperatures in the upper 60s will combine with this limited low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this modest buoyancy, beginning around 21Z across the southeast MO vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along the front as it moves across the OH Valley, with the increasing large-scale ascent aiding the development of deep convection into areas where surface dewpoints are lower and buoyancy is scant. Deep-layer flow is strong enough to support some updraft organization, but the limited buoyancy is expected to keep updraft duration too short for much organization. As such, the severe-weather potential is low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day, moving through the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of this wave, moving through Upper MS Valley late tonight/early tomorrow. Evolution of these two waves will help sharpen the cyclonic flow aloft over much of the Upper Great Lakes region and vicinity. At the surface, a low attendant to the central Plains shortwave trough was recently analyzed over central IA. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across southeast KS and western OK to another low over northwest TX. The central IA surface low is forecast to track eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period in the northern Lake Erie vicinity. As this low moves eastward, the attendant cold front will progress eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are expected along this front as it moves eastward. A few isolated thunderstorms also possible across northeast TX and the Arklatex late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here, a few elevated storms are possible behind the surface front, amid modest low/mid-level moistening and convergence along the 850-mb front. ...Mid-South into the Middle OH Valley... Limited moisture return is anticipated ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, but mid 50s dewpoints could be in place from southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN prior to the passage of the cold front. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface temperatures in the upper 60s will combine with this limited low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this modest buoyancy, beginning around 21Z across the southeast MO vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along the front as it moves across the OH Valley, with the increasing large-scale ascent aiding the development of deep convection into areas where surface dewpoints are lower and buoyancy is scant. Deep-layer flow is strong enough to support some updraft organization, but the limited buoyancy is expected to keep updraft duration too short for much organization. As such, the severe-weather potential is low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D6/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. ...D7/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Aloft however, there is significant disagreement regarding the amplitude of the larger scale wave on Tuesday. The less amplified GFS seems to be the outlier, with a more amplified solution preferred by most other extended range guidance. However, even the GFS would pose a severe weather threat across parts of East Texas into the Mid-Lower Mississippi Valley. The inherent uncertainty in a Day 7 forecast and the modest spread regarding the mid-level trough evolution make specific factors such as severe hazards and storm mode nebulous at this time. However, there is enough confidence in at least mid-60s dewpoints well inland with an ejecting large scale trough, to introduce broad 15% severe weather probabilities on D7/Tuesday from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. ...D8/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... Some severe weather threat will likely exist on Wednesday ahead of a squall line that may be ongoing along or ahead of the cold front. Uncertainties in the mid-level pattern on Tue/D7 will be further exacerbated on Day 8. In addition, it is unclear whether full moisture recovery will occur across the eastern Gulf ahead of the cold frontal passage. This will have significant implications on the moisture quality ahead of the front on Wed/D8 and thus the instability available. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... A closed upper low will approach the southern California coast on Friday. Model spread remains high for the location of this upper-level low. A ECMWF/GEM/EPS solution bringing the upper-low into southern California is preferred. As temperatures cool aloft, weak instability will develop across parts of southern California with isolated thunderstorms possible. The greatest thunderstorm potential will be late Friday night and early Saturday when the coldest temperatures aloft are expected to overspread southern California. Farther east, northerly flow will be present across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which will move through Thursday night. This northerly flow will slacken through the day which will prevent further scouring of Gulf moisture. However, this moisture will remain well offshore and thus, instability will remain weak across the eastern CONUS. No thunderstorms are anticipated east of the Rockies on Friday. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... A closed upper low will approach the southern California coast on Friday. Model spread remains high for the location of this upper-level low. A ECMWF/GEM/EPS solution bringing the upper-low into southern California is preferred. As temperatures cool aloft, weak instability will develop across parts of southern California with isolated thunderstorms possible. The greatest thunderstorm potential will be late Friday night and early Saturday when the coldest temperatures aloft are expected to overspread southern California. Farther east, northerly flow will be present across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which will move through Thursday night. This northerly flow will slacken through the day which will prevent further scouring of Gulf moisture. However, this moisture will remain well offshore and thus, instability will remain weak across the eastern CONUS. No thunderstorms are anticipated east of the Rockies on Friday. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more