MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...280... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...280... Valid 172343Z - 180115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278, 280 continues. SUMMARY...While convective coverage remains relatively low, some new thunderstorm development could potentially pose a risk for hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage across WW 280 remains relatively low. However, additional thunderstorm development has occurred over central Texas, with fairly robust echo tops around 45 kft and higher reflectivity cores. However, this storm is moving into an area of convective outflow. It is uncertain if thunderstorm activity will persist -- albeit, rooted above the boundary layer -- or dissipate as it enters the colder air. Still, as this storm moves northward into WW 278, it may pose an additional risk for severe hail and damaging winds. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30790030 31129976 31589922 32049881 32179822 32199760 31789713 31559730 31209737 30779779 30479844 30209923 30289985 30540026 30790030 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0847 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 279... FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 180040Z - 180245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across part of western, central and southeastern Oklahoma over the next few hours. Large hail potentially over 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KTLX shows a supercell in southeast Oklahoma, and a second supercell near the Red River. These severe storms are located near a bullseye in instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, the Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VWP has a looping hodograph, with strong directional shear in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will be favorable for supercells, with tornado and large hail potential. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter be possible within the more intense cores. Over the next hour, a storm merger will be possible in southeast Oklahoma. Although it is uncertain how this will affect the severe threat, a local increase in damaging winds will be possible as the merger takes place. Northwestward into parts of central and northwest Oklahoma, short-term forecasts suggest that a small severe convective cluster will form and progress eastward this evening, along and near the warm front. For this reason, a threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to develop in the northwestern part of the watch over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33929528 33669611 33819719 34139839 34779969 35359997 35899993 36299946 36369821 35579622 34779528 33929528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GWO TO 25 NNW MLU. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-180140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-067-123-180140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-151-163-180140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON YAZOO Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GWO TO 25 NNW MLU. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-041-043-180140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-067-123-180140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MOREHOUSE WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-151-163-180140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON YAZOO Read more

WW 281 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 172200Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana West-Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing supercell thunderstorms should persist for several more hours this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly 1-2 inch diameter hail. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Monroe LA to 30 miles south of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0282 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SPS TO 5 NNW CDS. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-180140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE SPS TO 5 NNW CDS. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-180140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 279 TORNADO OK TX 171940Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Southern Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. Very large hail and damaging winds may occur in these storms. A warm front draped across Oklahoma may provide sufficient low-level shear for a few tornadoes as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Altus OK to 35 miles east southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRS TO 15 S FTW TO 25 SW ADM. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-349-379- 397-439-467-180140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CRS TO 15 S FTW TO 25 SW ADM. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-349-379- 397-439-467-180140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 278 SEVERE TSTM TX 171930Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify this afternoon. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be a concern through the early evening. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Fort Worth TX to 5 miles south of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-180040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-180040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 280 SEVERE TSTM TX 171955Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Very unstable conditions will promote a risk of large hail and damaging winds in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Del Rio TX to 45 miles northwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277... FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 0842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont and far western Massachusetts Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277... Valid 172036Z - 172230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms persist from Upstate New York into Vermont. Strong gusts, marginal hail, and a brief tornado remain possible. DISCUSSION...Storms appear to be producing strong outflow/gusts as well as hail up to severe limits over northern NY and VT. The area has destabilized as lapse rates continue to steepen aloft, now with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, satellite imagery shows the effects of midlevel subsidence father south into PA, with flat/"pancake" cumulus presentation. Objective analysis does indicate relatively large 0-1 SRH over VT/MA/NH, with values of 100-150 m2/s2. In addition, early day clouds have moved out, allowing heating. As such, this general zone could support a brief tornado as storms approach from the west later this afternoon. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42597561 43217528 43687492 44467436 45157281 45047177 44387171 43637181 43087197 42657217 42397280 42247363 42247414 42377549 42597561 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more