Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Northern Louisiana Western Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Northern Louisiana Western Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EVV TO 20 NW IND TO 15 ENE SBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC101-030240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE INC001-003-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-033-039-049-053-055-057- 063-067-069-075-081-083-085-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 119-133-151-153-159-169-179-183-030240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAWRENCE Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EVV TO 20 NW IND TO 15 ENE SBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC101-030240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE INC001-003-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-033-039-049-053-055-057- 063-067-069-075-081-083-085-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 119-133-151-153-159-169-179-183-030240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAWRENCE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue into the late evening/overnight hours. Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan. Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and damaging winds, along with large hail. Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by 03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result, supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast. ..Darrow.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0360 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SERN IN...SWRN KY...WRN TN...NRN THROUGH SWRN AR AND ADJACENT NE TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MO...srn IL...sern IN...swrn KY...wrn TN...nrn through swrn AR and adjacent ne TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022235Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of long-lived supercells posing the risk of producing strong tornadoes appear possible across northwestern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, potential for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may slowly increase with a slowly east-southeastward advancing squall line. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become extensive within a pre-frontal confluent zone, from the Ark-La-Tex into southern Illinois. Outflow has generated an elongated surface cold pool, which remains largely parallel to the 50-60 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this includes a 60+ kt 850 mb jet core, which is forecast to continue to nose across the Mid South between the Greater Memphis area and southwestern Kentucky through early evening. Gradually, with further strengthening of the surface cold pool, north-northeastward surging segments of the associated cold front may become better defined, with radar reflectivities taking on more organized line echo wave structures. Developing embedded meso vortices may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. Otherwise, isolated, discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing within a corridor of surface pressure falls (near 2 mb 2-hourly) within the pre-frontal surface trough across northern Louisiana through eastern Arkansas. Embedded within a seasonably moist boundary layer, characterized by moderately large CAPE, and an environment with large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a couple of long-lived supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes appears possible into the 00-02Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33839343 35599160 36169111 36409073 36879011 37858916 38348886 38428791 37978753 36868873 35328994 33839106 32829201 32289336 32259407 32639419 33339413 33839343 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of middle Tennessee through central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022309Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe convection, including supercells, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may increase through 9-11 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...A clustering of discrete thunderstorm development, likely supported by forcing associated with broad low-level warm advection, and perhaps a weak perturbation within the strong southwesterly flow aloft, probably will continue developing northeastward within a slowly moistening boundary layer across the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley. This activity still appears embedded within a broadly anticyclonic low-level regime across northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee, but the Rapid Refresh suggests that surface pressure falls may lead to weak troughing across south central through east central Kentucky by 01-02Z. It appears that this will coincide with substantive further strengthening of low-level flow (50-70+ kt around 850 mb). If inhibition does not become suppressive to convection, with the onset of diurnal cooling, the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may increase through mid to late evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36878779 38178619 38378477 37758348 36328495 35538598 34958768 36238809 36878779 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0363 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022312Z - 030045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are intensifying in a very favorable environment for strong to intense tornadoes across the Mid-South. DISCUSSION...Numerous discrete right-moving supercells are intensifying across the open warm sector in the Mid-South as of 23Z. The NQA VWP depicts very large, clockwise-curved hodographs with ample streamwise vorticity for these storms (around 330 m2/s2 0-500m SRH). Given a moist/unstable boundary layer, ample low-level shear, and the well-established discrete supercells, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible through this corridor over the next couple hours. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34009085 34259159 34699169 35159159 36289066 36499019 36468975 36348926 36078903 35798902 34179016 34009085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-021-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-055-063-067- 069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-121-123-135-145-147- 030040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLAY CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SHARP WHITE WOODRUFF ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-030040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361 ..WEINMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-053-063-075-079- 091-101-105-107-113-115-129-139-147-159-167-173-183-197- 022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MENARD MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-045-049-053-055-057-063-067- 073-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-119- 121-127-131-133-149-153-157-159-165-167-169-171-181-022340- IN Read more

WW 99 TORNADO IL IN 022015Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 99 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Illinois Western and Central Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase initially across central/northeast Illinois late this afternoon, and steadily progress east-northeastward into eastern Illinois and much of western/central/northern Indiana by evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Decatur IL to 45 miles north northeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE TYR TO 25 ESE DEQ. ..KERR..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-109-139-030040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA PIKE UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-030040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER TXC037-063-067-183-203-315-343-365-401-419-459-030040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW POF TO 15 SSE DEC. ..WEINMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON MOC093-123-179-186-187-022340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IRON MADISON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW POF TO 15 SSE DEC. ..WEINMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 101 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-121-157-189-022340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE MARION RANDOLPH WASHINGTON MOC093-123-179-186-187-022340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IRON MADISON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 100 TORNADO AR LA TX 022050Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 350 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm development may occur in multiple zones through late afternoon and early evening across the ArkLaTex, with hail/wind and tornadoes all possible with the most intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Longview TX to 40 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 99... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 101 TORNADO IL MO 022120Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Central Illinois East Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to track eastward across the St Louis metro area and vicinity through the next few hours, posing a risk of all severe hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Alton IL to 45 miles south southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0102 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021943Z - 022145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds. Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast. With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat. Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682 38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983 39919026 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022018Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly with any discrete storms. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to 2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas. Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud cover has been present most of today and hindered overall destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur in northeast Texas given these factors. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513 34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238 31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more