SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A zonal mid-level flow regime across the CONUS will gradually amplify through early next week as broad troughing develops over the eastern US. As the eastern trough deepens, strong northwesterly flow and weak ridging should build over the western and central US. A surface low and strong cold front will develop and move eastward mid to late week, supporting much colder and wetter conditions over the central and eastern CONUS. The arctic air mass and multiple rounds of precipitation should limit fuel availability and fire-weather concerns. To the west, high pressure will intensify through the remainder of the forecast period over the Rockies and Great Basin. Some offshore pressure gradients could support dry and breezy conditions into parts of CA into next weekend, but model variations and the potential for precipitation limit predictability of any fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A zonal mid-level flow regime across the CONUS will gradually amplify through early next week as broad troughing develops over the eastern US. As the eastern trough deepens, strong northwesterly flow and weak ridging should build over the western and central US. A surface low and strong cold front will develop and move eastward mid to late week, supporting much colder and wetter conditions over the central and eastern CONUS. The arctic air mass and multiple rounds of precipitation should limit fuel availability and fire-weather concerns. To the west, high pressure will intensify through the remainder of the forecast period over the Rockies and Great Basin. Some offshore pressure gradients could support dry and breezy conditions into parts of CA into next weekend, but model variations and the potential for precipitation limit predictability of any fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes. Despite the prevalence of strong winds and low humidity for several hours across the southern High Plains, overlap with dry fuels is minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, resulting in the eastward progression of a surface low from the central Plains into the MS Valley. An eastward-sweeping surface cold front will accompany the surface low, with dry downslope flow expected across the southern High Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across far southeastern New Mexico into Far West Texas by afternoon peak heating. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook given the marginal receptiveness of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes. Despite the prevalence of strong winds and low humidity for several hours across the southern High Plains, overlap with dry fuels is minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, resulting in the eastward progression of a surface low from the central Plains into the MS Valley. An eastward-sweeping surface cold front will accompany the surface low, with dry downslope flow expected across the southern High Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across far southeastern New Mexico into Far West Texas by afternoon peak heating. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook given the marginal receptiveness of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low initially over parts of SK/MB is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes on Monday, as a leading shortwave trough ejects eastward across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. A surface low is generally forecast to deepen and move northeastward from the mid MS Valley region towards the lower Great Lakes, though guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding the timing and strength of this low. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the lower Great Lakes, OH/TN Valleys, and lower/mid MS Valleys. Across the West, a weakening mid/upper-level low is forecast to gradually move southeastward towards parts of the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Sabine Valley into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South/TN Valley... Low-level moisture return will continue on Monday along/ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints spreading from east TX into parts of the Mid-South, and lower/mid 50s F dewpoints potentially reaching into parts of the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop (mainly later in the forecast period) within the richer moisture along/ahead of the front from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South/TN Valley. Deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but most current guidance suggests that weak buoyancy/lapse rates will tend to limit storm organization and intensity. ...Ohio Valley... Guidance generally suggests that low-level moistening will be insufficient to support deep convection with northward extent along the front into the Ohio Valley, resulting in low thunderstorm potential. The most aggressive guidance (with respect to the strength of the surface low and frontal convergence) does depict some potential for weak low-topped convection with localized gusty winds spreading eastward with the front from late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low initially over parts of SK/MB is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes on Monday, as a leading shortwave trough ejects eastward across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. A surface low is generally forecast to deepen and move northeastward from the mid MS Valley region towards the lower Great Lakes, though guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding the timing and strength of this low. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the lower Great Lakes, OH/TN Valleys, and lower/mid MS Valleys. Across the West, a weakening mid/upper-level low is forecast to gradually move southeastward towards parts of the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Sabine Valley into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South/TN Valley... Low-level moisture return will continue on Monday along/ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints spreading from east TX into parts of the Mid-South, and lower/mid 50s F dewpoints potentially reaching into parts of the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop (mainly later in the forecast period) within the richer moisture along/ahead of the front from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South/TN Valley. Deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but most current guidance suggests that weak buoyancy/lapse rates will tend to limit storm organization and intensity. ...Ohio Valley... Guidance generally suggests that low-level moistening will be insufficient to support deep convection with northward extent along the front into the Ohio Valley, resulting in low thunderstorm potential. The most aggressive guidance (with respect to the strength of the surface low and frontal convergence) does depict some potential for weak low-topped convection with localized gusty winds spreading eastward with the front from late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a deep-layer cyclone is forecast to remain offshore of the Pacific Northwest, with multiple midlevel shortwave troughs potentially moving inland along the south/east periphery of the cyclone. Farther east, a strong mid/upper-level jet is expected to shift eastward over the south-central Plains, resulting in amplification of a shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. A surface low initially located over KS is forecast to move northeastward through the period, as a trailing cold front advances southward across the Plains. Low-level moisture return is expected to commence across south TX into the ArkLaTex, though this early-stage moisture appears insufficient to support deep convection across the region through the end of the period. Farther west, buoyancy may become sufficient to support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes near the OR/northern CA coast, as multiple waves of precipitation move onshore in association with the offshore mid/upper-level low/trough. Weak convection could also accompany the midlevel shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into the north-central Plains, but instability currently appears too weak to support lightning potential with this activity. ..Dean.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a deep-layer cyclone is forecast to remain offshore of the Pacific Northwest, with multiple midlevel shortwave troughs potentially moving inland along the south/east periphery of the cyclone. Farther east, a strong mid/upper-level jet is expected to shift eastward over the south-central Plains, resulting in amplification of a shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. A surface low initially located over KS is forecast to move northeastward through the period, as a trailing cold front advances southward across the Plains. Low-level moisture return is expected to commence across south TX into the ArkLaTex, though this early-stage moisture appears insufficient to support deep convection across the region through the end of the period. Farther west, buoyancy may become sufficient to support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes near the OR/northern CA coast, as multiple waves of precipitation move onshore in association with the offshore mid/upper-level low/trough. Weak convection could also accompany the midlevel shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into the north-central Plains, but instability currently appears too weak to support lightning potential with this activity. ..Dean.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in the lee of the Laramie Range and across the interior highlands of southeastern WY. Strong zonal mid-level flow and downslope pressure gradients will support several hours of very strong winds and mountain wave activity. While RH and winds are likely to exceed critical criteria, area fuels vary substantially. Short-hour and frost-cured fuels at lower elevations could support some risk given the little recent precipitation. However, the broader lack of receptive fuels suggests any fire-weather threat that does develop will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will progress across the central CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the Interior West today. Surface high pressure will prevail across the Southeast, accompanied by a weak surface wind field. Surface lee troughing is expected in the Plains, where low-level moisture return will also occur. Appreciable precipitation accumulations are also likely over the northwestern CONUS. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in the lee of the Laramie Range and across the interior highlands of southeastern WY. Strong zonal mid-level flow and downslope pressure gradients will support several hours of very strong winds and mountain wave activity. While RH and winds are likely to exceed critical criteria, area fuels vary substantially. Short-hour and frost-cured fuels at lower elevations could support some risk given the little recent precipitation. However, the broader lack of receptive fuels suggests any fire-weather threat that does develop will be isolated. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will progress across the central CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the Interior West today. Surface high pressure will prevail across the Southeast, accompanied by a weak surface wind field. Surface lee troughing is expected in the Plains, where low-level moisture return will also occur. Appreciable precipitation accumulations are also likely over the northwestern CONUS. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, resulting in the eastward progression of a surface low from the central Plains into the MS Valley. An eastward-sweeping surface cold front will accompany the surface low, with dry downslope flow expected across the southern High Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across far southeastern New Mexico into Far West Texas by afternoon peak heating. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook given the marginal receptiveness of fuels. ..Squitieri.. 11/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will progress across the central CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the Interior West today. Surface high pressure will prevail across the Southeast, accompanied by a weak surface wind field. Surface lee troughing is expected in the Plains, where low-level moisture return will also occur. Appreciable precipitation accumulations are also likely over the northwestern CONUS. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 11/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more