Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN MAINE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Mississippi into much of central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181454Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk over northern Mississippi may increase in coverage and spread into northern and central Alabama by early afternoon. Damaging winds would be the main risk. DISCUSSION...A small MCS is currently moving across northern MS, with periodic strengthening. Outflow extends southwestward from this system toward the AR/LA border, with only shallow showers there. A moist and unstable air mass exist along and south of the current MCS/cell track. Southwest low-level winds will aid advection out of the southwest during the day as heating occurs, though speeds will not be very strong and as such the instability gradient may not move much. However, strong westerlies aloft are evident on the 12Z soundings, and midlevel lapse rates will support strong/uncapped instability with minimal heating. As such, an increasing severe storm threat is expected from MS into AL, and a watch may eventually be needed. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33998974 34148958 33918671 33458630 32808618 32188657 32438849 33068994 33519023 33998974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/18/2025 Read more

MD 0854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas and northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284... Valid 181156Z - 181400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, with a history of producing wind damage, continues to move through central Arkansas. The overall environment should continue to support a severe threat ahead of this MCS through at least mid morning. DISCUSSION...Long-lived linear MCS, with a history of producing wind damage, continues to move east-southeast through much of Arkansas this morning. This MCS is moving along a west-northwest to east-southeast CAPE gradient stretching from northeast Oklahoma into southern Georgia and is following a similar path as to an earlier MCS from last evening into earlier this morning. The overall large-scale environment will continue to support maintenance of this MCS as the MCS has access to MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. The organization of the MCS, the overall favorable environment,and knowledge that the earlier MCS traversed a similar environment and is continuing through Alabama supports the severe threat through the morning. A downstream watch may become necessary for portions of far eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi as the MCS approaches the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #284. ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 285 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 181215Z - 181700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama North-Central Georgia * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue eastward from eastern Alabama into Georgia this morning. Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) will be the primary severe hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Anniston AL to 45 miles northeast of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 18 10:30:08 UTC 2025.

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0284 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0284 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 284 SEVERE TSTM AR 180940Z - 181600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central into Central and Eastern Arkansas * Effective this Sunday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A bowing squall line will likely continue east-southeastward this morning across the Watch area. Damaging straight-line gusts are possible and will be the primary hazard with the stronger outflow surges in the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Russellville AR to 50 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29050. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more