SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Recent radar reflectivity trends show an uptick in fire activity associated with ongoing fires across the Los Angeles county area. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph remain widespread with more isolated gusts of 70-85 mph have been observed over the past hour (as of 16:30 UTC). Recent high-res guidance, including experimental WoFS forecasts, indicate that these winds will continue for a couple more hours through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating through the day (especially after 00 UTC). However, sustained winds between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts above 40 mph will likely continue through mid afternoon. Patchy mid to high-level cloud cover over the region will modulate diurnal insolation to some degree, but RH values currently in the mid-teens to low 20s should fall into the upper single digits to low teens through mid-afternoon as downslope warming/drying continues. Despite a slow reduction in winds, falling RH will be compensatory in nature and maintain a very high fire weather threat. Fosberg and Red Flag Threat Index forecasts from both the HREF and WoFS suggests the peak in fire weather conditions will most likely occur during the 18-21 UTC period when the temporal overlap of strong gusty winds and falling RH will be greatest. As such, a multi-hour window of extremely critical conditions remains likely for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. ..Moore.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of mid-level troughs will move across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week, as a prevailing northwest flow pattern continues. In response, a cold and dry airmass will remain anchored over most of the continental U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained over much of the Southeast on Friday, as a trough moves through the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low progresses eastward near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the front and in the vicinity of the surface low during the day on Friday. The potential for isolated storms should move eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard Friday evening. Instability is forecast to be insufficient for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southeast on Friday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained over much of the Southeast on Friday, as a trough moves through the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low progresses eastward near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the front and in the vicinity of the surface low during the day on Friday. The potential for isolated storms should move eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard Friday evening. Instability is forecast to be insufficient for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the west will become quite elongated, stretching the entirety of the Rockies. A strong upper-level jet will progress through the trough and amplify it towards Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the Great Basin. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to remain moderately strong through Thursday. Upper-level winds will initially be moderate as well; however, as another mid-level jet moves through the western flank of the upper trough, these winds will actually increase some during the afternoon. Prolonged elevated to critical fire weather is expected. Critical fire weather spatial extent is expected to be reduced from Wednesday. The terrain/foothills of Los Angeles/Ventura/Orange Counties will be the main focus. Elevated fire weather can be expected from Santa Barbara County southward into the San Diego vicinity. RH of 10-20% will be common, though single digit RH is possible locally. Winds of 20-30 mph will be possible in the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. 15-20 mph winds are more likely outside of those areas. ...Central/South Florida... Persistent down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida on Thursday. RH during the afternoon could fall to 25-35%. Winds are expected to be light so only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the upper-level low now over the lower Colorado Valley. A belt of strong mid-level winds is now over southern California. This mid-level jet should remain in the region through mid morning. Though these winds will weaken through the day, at least moderate flow will remain aloft. Similarly, the Great Basin surface high will intensify this morning before weakening slowly. ...Southern California... A dangerous fire weather event is currently unfolding in portions of southern California. As of early this morning, three hot spots (indicating ongoing fires) are evident in Los Angeles County on shortwave IR imagery. Winds are currently 20-35 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph (with isolated 70-100 mph gusts). These winds should increase into early/mid morning. RH of 10-20% should also remain steady until sunrise when RH will drop further with surface heating. Extreme fire weather is still expected in portions of the typical Santa Ana corridors. There is additional potential for localized extreme conditions near the Santa Ana Mountains in Orange County. Sustained winds could reach 30-40 mph and RH could fall to 5-10%. With the surface high pushing farther south today, elevated to critical fire weather will extent toward the San Diego vicinity. Critical fire weather farther south should be more limited to the terrain and the foothills. Ongoing fires and any others that start will be capable of very rapid spread. The most extreme fire weather conditions will lessen by the afternoon. However, critical fire weather conditions should still persist as the offshore gradient will still remain moderately strong along with the lingering moderate mid-level winds. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100 J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed mid/upper low will migrate slowly across northwest Mexico on Wednesday. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will result in a warm advection regime atop a sub-freezing boundary-layer across portions of Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday. Meager elevated instability may develop within the 750-500 mb layer amid increasing moisture, cold temperatures aloft, and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes after midnight local time. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 01/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is not expected the remainder of this evening into early Wednesday, and no changes are needed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more