SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... An extended period of elevated fire weather concerns is expected across portions of the Great Basin through D6/Wednesday. During this time a highly amplified omega blocking pattern will remain in place, with an upper-level ridge over the central CONUS, and troughs over the East and West Coasts. Persistent hot and dry conditions under, and on the fringes of, the aforementioned ridge will continue to result in poor fuel recovery. This will especially be true across the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Sunday-D6 Wednesday... A mid-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific trough, will lift northward across WA and into British Columbia D3/Sunday. Although the mid-level flow is expected to weaken south of it over the Great Basin, a well mixed boundary layer will still allow for momentum transfer of some stronger flow aloft to translate to the surface from the northwestern, to central, and southern Great Basin. In particular, the highest sustained wind speeds are expected across south-central NV D3/Sunday where an enhanced pressure gradient will reside. Morning moisture recovery will also remain poor across this region. Similar weather conditions are anticipated for D4/Monday across south-central NV, with even poorer RH recovery in the morning. Widespread elevated surface wind speeds should decrease slightly across most of the Great Basin early next week as SSW mid-level speeds do the same. However, persistent terrain driven wind speeds, in conjunction with well mixed boundary layers, will continue to support small areas of 40% risk probabilities through at least D6/Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 628 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 162035Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Extreme southwest Missouri Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorm development are possible along and south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border through late evening, in a storm environment favoring organized clusters and supercells. The more intense storms will be capable of producing very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, as well as severe outflow winds up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 30 miles south southeast of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Wisconsin into parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161853Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity likely will continue to increase in coverage while also slowly intensifying across central into southwestern Wisconsin, and perhaps adjacent portions of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, through 3-5 PM CDT. Some small to marginally severe hail is possible, before activity gradually organizes and poses a risk for strong to severe gusts while approaching southern Lake Michigan into early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently been intensifying over central Wisconsin, near Wisconsin Rapids. This is beneath the modest mid-level cold core of a broad mid/upper low slowly shifting into the upper Great Lakes region, and in advance of an associated intrusion of cooler/drier air which has overspread much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Wind fields and shear near the ongoing convection are rather weak, but low-level lapse rates have become relatively steep with daytime heating, and easterly low-level inflow into convection appears characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg. To the west and southwest of this convection, a digging mid-level cyclonic vorticity center and associated speed maximum may contribute to forcing for gradually increasing new thunderstorm development across southwestern into south central Wisconsin and adjacent portions of Iowa/northern Illinois through 20-22Z. As this occurs, in closer proximity to the jet streak, strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 30-40 kt) may be sufficient to support organizing convection. This may gradually be accompanied by a strengthening surface cold pool with by strong to locally severe gusts while advancing toward southern Lake Michigan into this evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42479086 43409025 44158951 43638787 42298835 42018952 42049073 42479086 Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161907Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A conditional threat of wind and hail will be possible downstream of WW627 as long-lived supercell and potential for additional convection develops continues east and southeast. DISCUSSION...An elevated long-lived supercell continues to track east along trailing outflow in south-central Kansas south of Wichita. Visible satellite has shown attempts at new cell development on the southern flank of outflow as it sags southward towards northern Oklahoma. Modified soundings would suggest that the downstream environment may only be weakly capped, as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s across much of eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A conditional threat of large hail and damaging wind may extend downstream with further warming and weakening of capping occurs and supercells can become surface based, given MLCAPE around 1000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-40 kts. This area is being monitored for a downstream watch should intensification occur. A local extension of WW627 may be needed in south-central Kansas. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36809765 36419729 36219684 36099647 36049597 36069558 36309499 36599467 36949495 37299541 37819620 37889696 37789767 37219781 36809765 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... ...Update... A few adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas for Saturday, along with the introduction of a narrow corridor of isolated dry thunderstorms across the western Columbia Basin of OR and WA. ...Dry/Windy... Breezy southerly surface winds are still expected to develop Saturday afternoon near two surface lows, and combine with low-teens RH. The first area of concern will be across portions of southeastern OR and far northern NV, influenced by a tightening surface pressure gradient. Here, sustained surface wind speeds as high as 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible. Further south, across south-central NV and near the White and Inyo Mountains of CA, slightly higher wind speeds under the influence of a mid-level jet will be possible in conjunction with RH in the single digits to low teens. The southern extent of the Critical area across OR and northern NV was reduced slightly, since it appears the duration of critical wind-speed thresholds will remain below 3 hours there. However, the Critical area further south was expanded north and south to account for a broader region of critical speeds overlapping receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough, within a broader Pacific upper trough, will impact OR and WA Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. Ascent associated with this feature, along with sufficient moisture, will support widely scattered thunderstorm development during this time. Most of this activity will result in wetting rainfall just west of the Cascades, but isolated dry lightning strikes appear possible within a narrow corridor mainly over the western Columbia Basin of OR on the eastern fringe of the deeper mid-level moisture axis. In addition, outflow winds associated with a cluster of thunderstorms could result in severe gusts later in the evening perhaps somewhere near the OR/WA border/Columbia Gorge. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern California and Oregon coasts, with a fairly strong mid-level jet of 60-70 kts forecast to move northward from the San Francisco Bay area into southeastern Oregon. This trough and associated jet streak will bring critical fire-weather conditions across portions of southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, as well as southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountains of California. ...Dry/Windy... Two primary areas for critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated -- one over portions of northern Nevada and southern Oregon, and the other over southwestern Nevada and the White/Inyo mountain ranges of California. The strongest winds will likely be beneath the strongest flow of the mid-level jet streak and near the surface low in Oregon, forecast to be as high as 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. These winds will overlap with relative humidity values of 10-15% and ERC fuels near the 90th annual percentile. Some recent wetting rainfall has occurred over south-central Oregon, though modestly dry/windy conditions on Friday should result in at least some drying of fuels before Saturday. In southwestern Nevada and portions of the White/Inyo mountains in California, sustained winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overspread fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual percentile, resulting in critical fire-weather conditions. Modifications to these areas may be needed with updated fuels and meteorological guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK/AR/MO through tonight... A cluster of storms has persisted into the afternoon with most of the activity on the cool side of a frontal zone. However, a leading supercell has maintained its intensity into southern Kansas were temperatures are in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has mostly eroded. Therefore, additional intensification of this storm and additional development on the trailing outflow to its west is possible. For additional information, see MCD #1921. ...TN/OH Valley this afternoon/evening... Thunderstorms are ongoing within a broad region of moderate to strong instability and weak shear from Arkansas to Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Given the instability, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, but the lack of shear and better storm organization should preclude any organized severe-weather threat. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Thunderstorms have started to develop across eastern Wisconsin within a pocket of greater instability west of Lake Michigan. See MCD #1920 for more discussion of the threat across this region. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK/AR/MO through tonight... A cluster of storms has persisted into the afternoon with most of the activity on the cool side of a frontal zone. However, a leading supercell has maintained its intensity into southern Kansas were temperatures are in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has mostly eroded. Therefore, additional intensification of this storm and additional development on the trailing outflow to its west is possible. For additional information, see MCD #1921. ...TN/OH Valley this afternoon/evening... Thunderstorms are ongoing within a broad region of moderate to strong instability and weak shear from Arkansas to Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Given the instability, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, but the lack of shear and better storm organization should preclude any organized severe-weather threat. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Thunderstorms have started to develop across eastern Wisconsin within a pocket of greater instability west of Lake Michigan. See MCD #1920 for more discussion of the threat across this region. ..Bentley.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early evening. ...Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States... A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. The combination of moderate to strong buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially with western extent. ...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early evening. ...Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States... A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. The combination of moderate to strong buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially with western extent. ...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 ..THORNTON..08/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-015-025-033-035-077-079-095-097-113-151-155-159-173- 185-191-162040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON BUTLER CLARK COMANCHE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MCPHERSON PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 627 SEVERE TSTM KS 161555Z - 162100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and south central Kansas * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1055 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may persist into the afternoon and become rooted at the surface while moving southeastward. The more intense storms will be capable of producing hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Dodge City KS to 20 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KY/OH VALLEY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. Isolated to scattered severe wind and hail are also possible across parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington on Saturday afternoon through about dusk. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Mid/Deep South... A slow-moving mid/upper trough should continue east across the Great Lakes through early Sunday. An occluded surface cyclone over Lower MI should drift into Lake Huron. A weak cold front will arc to the south-southwest over the Upper OH Valley and trail southwest to west across the Mid-South into OK. Along this baroclinic zone, ongoing convection at 12Z Saturday appears most probable over the Ozarks vicinity. It is plausible this activity may intensify as downstream diurnal destabilization occurs in the Mid to Deep South. Within the mid-level flow gradient, semi-organized clusters are possible with a threat for sporadic damaging winds. The belt of seasonably strong mid to upper-level westerlies should be centered across KY/TN within the basal portion of the Great Lakes trough. Consensus of guidance suggests 700-mb westerlies will be stronger relative to Friday, likely centered on the OH Valley region. With the more prominent diurnal destabilization occurring across KY into the OH Valley, away from the influence of Ozarks to Deep South earlier-day convection, this setup may yield a greater concentration of damaging winds and some severe hail along this portion of the front. Despite the predominately westerly flow regime, deep-layer speed shear should support a mix of multicell clusters and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures. Multiple convective rounds are possible during the afternoon into the early to mid evening. ...Pacific Northwest... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within a broader mid/upper trough, should move inland across northern CA into western OR. This feature may take on a negative-tilt, with pronounced mid-level height falls favorably timed to peak diurnal heating. A strengthening mid to upper jetlet will overspread this region with mid-level winds backing to the south-southeast. Within the exit region of this meridional flow regime, scattered to numerous late-afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be focused from south to north across the Cascade Range. While buoyancy should remain weak, steep mid to low-level lapse rates should support a few supercells capable of both severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be relatively greater across parts of the Columbia Valley near the OR/WA border area as storms cluster into the early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin... A plume of richer 700-mb moisture will advect north from AZ, with peripheral flow enhancement from the West Coast shortwave trough. Guidance is fairly consistent that late morning to midday thunderstorm activity will increase as diurnal destabilization ensues. While this may not be favorably timed with peak heating, the steep lapse-rate environment and moderate deep-layer flow suggest a threat for strong to sporadic severe gusts and small hail. A later round of late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms may occur along the western periphery of this earlier day activity, with a similar threat for low-probability severe. ...Central and northern High Plains... Mid-level ridging is expected across this region between the Great Lakes and West Coast trough, but with moderate mid to upper-level westerlies. Very isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to early evening along portions of a lee surface trough. These appear most probable along the northwest periphery of the central Great Plains to Ozarks buoyancy plume, in vicinity of northwest KS, and separately near the Canadian border as a minor shortwave impulse crests the ridge in the southern Prairie Provinces. Deep-layer shear will be adequate for a couple supercells capable of very isolated severe hail and wind. ..Grams.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN KS...NORTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ...WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 08/16/2024 Read more

MD 1919 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of central/southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161536Z - 161730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer ongoing scattered severe hail producing storms will persist. But trends are being monitored, and it is possible that a severe weather watch may become necessary. DISCUSSION...Elevated moisture return within forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection has been sufficently to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the initiation of scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. CAPE for lifted parcels, in the presence of steep lapse rates, may be in excess of 2000 J/kg. More certain, shear beneath 30-40+ west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is strong and more than sufficient for supercells capable of producing severe hail. Based on model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will continue. However, through early afternoon, the forcing for ascent is forecast to generally continue spreading east-southeastward through south central Kansas near/north of Medicine Lodge and Wichita, where a warmer and more moist boundary-layer may destabilize sufficiently to support notable further intensification. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38609999 38679887 38549776 37929693 37279783 37739997 38609999 Read more