SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 091730Z - 092130Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area of precipitation should continue, taking it into central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection. As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location, which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected. ..Mosier.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621 31139873 31179947 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A weak mid-level impulse is noted in morning satellite imagery and upper-air analyses upstream from southern CA. Stronger winds associated with this system are still expected to impact the southern CA coast later this afternoon with an attendant increase in downslope winds. These observations support recent morning guidance, which continues to suggest critical fire weather conditions will become more expansive through the afternoon and linger into early Friday morning. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0022 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into north central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 091242Z - 091515Z SUMMARY...A mix of snow, freezing rain and occasional sleet is expanding from West Texas to the Red River. DISCUSSION...A precipitation shield has expanded across West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and southern Oklahoma as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Many observation sites across West Texas have observed freezing rain this morning with relatively light accumulation. However, as precipitation intensifies, isolated greater accumulation amounts have been observed (KABI reported 0.14 inches of ice accretion between 11Z and 12Z), with this likely continuing through the morning. While some mixed phase precipitation may occur this morning while the boundary layer is moistening across Oklahoma and North Texas, expect mostly snow across this region by mid-morning given the thermal profile from the KOUN 12Z RAOB. Farther south, expect freezing rain to persist this morning before temperatures should rise above freezing by late morning as low-level flow/warm air advection strengthens. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31920225 33740148 34269947 34449781 34379690 33129725 31239960 30620038 30140132 30220209 31050242 31920225 Read more

MD 0023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...far east-central New Mexico...much of the TX Panhandle...and southwest and south-central Oklahoma. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091326Z - 091630Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates expected this morning. DISCUSSION...Moderate snowfall has expanded across the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. As the boundary layer continues to moisten and isentropic ascent maximizes this morning, expect heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour from far eastern New Mexico to south-central Oklahoma. The heaviest rates are expected from 14Z to 17Z. Some locally higher rates, perhaps approaching 1.5 inches per hour, are possible across parts of the southern Texas Panhandle where a deeper dendritic growth zone and elevated convective instability (185 J/kg MUCAPE on the 12Z AMA RAOB) are present. After 17Z, snowfall rates will likely weaken across the entire region amid veering/weakening 850-700mb flow. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35040353 35520178 35560014 35429764 35189639 34929581 34369598 34219790 34460187 34270346 34620373 35040353 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest mid-level flow pattern is forecast to remain in place over the central U.S. throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, as a series of shortwave troughs move southeastward through the flow. The northwesterly flow will help to drive multiple fronts southward into the central and eastern U.S, which will keep a relatively cold and dry airmass in place. For this reason, conditions are not expected to be favorable for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. through the middle of next week. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 9 09:43:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday at mid-levels, a trough will move eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard as another trough moves through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast, as another strong cold front moves southward through the central states. A relatively cold and dry airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more