WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW VDI TO 45 S AYS TO 55 NE SGJ. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC089-270940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NASSAU GAC001-005-025-039-049-127-161-229-299-305-270940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-470-270940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW VDI TO 45 S AYS TO 55 NE SGJ. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 686 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC089-270940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NASSAU GAC001-005-025-039-049-127-161-229-299-305-270940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ450-470-270940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Early next week, the upper low in the Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys will become an open wave and progress offshore by Wednesday, losing amplitude with time. Upper-level troughing will shift out of the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes early to mid next week. A very weak surface pattern will exist ahead of the initial shortwave trough in the vicinity of the Carolinas Monday/Tuesday. Though modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain over the region, these strong winds will generally be behind the main frontal zone likely near and just offshore. Further uncertainty is introduced due to precipitation and cloud cover. Elsewhere, cooler and more stable conditions will move in behind the second, stronger shortwave trough. By late next week, upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal and the strongest flow will be near the Canadian border. Potential for severe weather continues to appear low through the end of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Early next week, the upper low in the Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys will become an open wave and progress offshore by Wednesday, losing amplitude with time. Upper-level troughing will shift out of the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes early to mid next week. A very weak surface pattern will exist ahead of the initial shortwave trough in the vicinity of the Carolinas Monday/Tuesday. Though modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain over the region, these strong winds will generally be behind the main frontal zone likely near and just offshore. Further uncertainty is introduced due to precipitation and cloud cover. Elsewhere, cooler and more stable conditions will move in behind the second, stronger shortwave trough. By late next week, upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal and the strongest flow will be near the Canadian border. Potential for severe weather continues to appear low through the end of next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the lower Ohio Valley will continue to weaken on Sunday. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, weak southerly flow will bring some moisture northward into parts of the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are possible from Florida into areas near the Southeast Coast. Some drier air aloft is expected to move into central/eastern North Carolina. Models suggest this area may experience enough surface heating to promote around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Though weakening with time, mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kts during the afternoon. A stronger storm or two is possible. However, forcing will be nebulous and thermodynamic profiles show continued warm-core system characteristics/influences (i.e., weak lapse rates aloft, subsidence at upper levels). Updrafts will likely struggle in these conditions and severe weather appears unlikely at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However, dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and surface-based buoyancy to a minimum. Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula. Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the north will keep severe potential low with this activity. A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/Virginia... Helene is forecast by NHC to weaken into a tropical storm by the start of the forecast period. Continued weakening and eventual evolution into a post-tropical cyclone is forecast by later tonight, as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level low over the Mid South and curls northwestward toward the Ohio Valley. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume (with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints) in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, will be strongest at the start of the period and substantially weaken during the afternoon. One or more bands of relatively low-topped supercells may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Carolinas, immediately in advance of an increasingly pronounced midlevel dry slot. Low-level shear/SRH will remain quite strong in the morning, and the greatest relative tornado threat is still expected early in the period from the Pee Dee region of SC into the NC Coastal Plain. Convective bands will move northward into the afternoon, with some tornado potential spreading across parts of southern and central Virginia. Weakening low-level flow/shear and increasing influence of the midlevel dry slot should result in decreasing tornado potential by late afternoon into the evening. ..Dean/Barnes.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ..Barnes.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 262239Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula. As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well. Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector. An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late. ..Jewell.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will become extreme later tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's large and intense wind field spreads over the region. Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before 12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F) will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas, with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0687 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0684 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 684 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 684 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-033-043-051-073-091-103-107-109-163-165-167-175-179- 181-183-189-191-209-245-251-267-271-279-283-303-309-319- 261940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY RICHMOND SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILKINSON SCC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-049-053- 055-061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-261940- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN ALLENDALE BAMBERG Read more

WW 0685 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 685 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 685 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-005-007-013-019-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047- 059-063-065-067-073-077-079-089-107-109-121-123-125-129-133- 261940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BAY BRADFORD CALHOUN CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST GULF HAMILTON HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071- 075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239- 243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-261940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0686 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0686 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 686 TORNADO FL GA CW 262350Z - 271000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 750 PM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Helene will continue to pose a threat for several tornadoes this evening and continuing into the overnight hours across much of Florida and southern Georgia. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Waycross GA to 15 miles west southwest of Avon Park FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 683...WW 684...WW 685... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19050. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 262239Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula. As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well. Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector. An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late. ..Jewell.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960 Read more

MD 2121 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683...685... FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...Much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 683...685... Valid 262302Z - 270030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683, 685 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat across much of the Florida Peninsula and southern Georgia will continue well into the evening hours. A replacement tornado watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite, lightning, and radar imagery associated with Helene, and its extrapolation, continue to suggest the potential for several more bands of low-topped thunderstorms extending over much of the FL Peninsula and far southern GA through tonight. Increasing low-level flow associated with Helene remains apparent on the TBW VWP, with a slow increase of around 5-10 kt of shear observed in the lowest 1 km over the past hour. Although buoyancy will slowly decrease overnight, the aforementioned shear will yield 0-1 km SRH around 400-700 m2/s2 for several hours within all eastern quadrants of Helene. Brief tornadoes are expected within this zone of substantial, increasing low-level shear as far north as the eastern FL Panhandle. A new tornado watch will likely be issued within the next hour. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 26358186 26408217 27508271 28008289 28828268 29228296 29878364 30308469 30998466 31658321 31648210 31198152 29758092 27218083 26358186 Read more