SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the western US with warming temperatures and some drying of fuels. Overall, high pressure will keep winds light and fire concerns low. Across the eastern US, remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds but also widespread heavy rainfall. Overall, no overlap of Elevated/Critical conditions with receptive fuels is expected on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 2113

1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 2113 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 685... FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 685... Valid 261620Z - 261815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for brief tornadoes will continue -- with greatest short-term potential over central portions of the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis reveals a nearly stationary north-south trough -- acting as a pseudo warm front and, as such, source of enhanced low-level vorticity -- extending from the Franklin/Gulf County vicinity on the Florida Coast, northward across far western Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. This boundary reflects the discontinuity between the moist/tropical airmass to the east, and the continental airmass to the west. Several/continued brief low-level spin-ups have been observed over the past couple of hours within this zone, and expect this local enhancement of tornado potential to continue over the next couple of hours, given increasingly favorably low-level flow and the nearly stationary character of this north-south boundary. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29938539 30858521 30558448 29118399 28878488 29298555 29938539 Read more

SPC MD 2114

1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 2114 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 683... Valid 261632Z - 261830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues. SUMMARY...Local/brief tornado risk continues across the Florida Peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a relative dearth of inland convection over central and southern Florida, despite the center of Helene only approximately 175 nm west of Naples Fl. With that said, additional/banded convection should affect the Peninsula over the next several hours as Helene moves slowly northward. Some hints of evolving/cellular convection are now noted over southern Florida from Lake Okeechobee south to the far southern Florida Coast, and cellular convection is also increasing near and just offshore from the Tampa Bay area. Given favorably strong/weakly veering low-level flow indicated across the area, risk for brief tornadoes continues with any cellular convection that evolves. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29108354 29608286 29418057 27697948 25727966 24868062 25278259 29108354 Read more

SPC MD 2115

1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 2115 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Carolina...and into east-central and southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684... Valid 261642Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for brief tornadoes will continue today. DISCUSSION...Occasional, brief spin-ups of low-level rotation have been observed via WSR-88D storm-relative velocity over the past couple of hours, across roughly the eastern half of WW 684. Weak circulations are currently most abundant with offshore, cellular convection just off the Georgia and southeastern South Carolina Coasts. With favorably veering low-level flow indicated, and expected to gradually increase through the day, occasional enhancements of low-level rotation within convective cells will pose ongoing risk for brief tornadoes across this area. ..Goss.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32298243 34348172 34678072 32747883 31308037 31438231 32298243 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated highlights northwestward across portions of eastern MT. Here, surface observations already show a warming post-frontal air mass under mostly clear skies, and continued heating will result in 20-25 percent RH. These warm/dry conditions will overlap 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds for a couple hours this afternoon, and given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The pattern across the US on Thursday will be characterized by Hurricane Helene moving inland and becoming absorbed into the upper-level flow across the eastern US as a ridge of high pressure continues to be in place across the western US. Across the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the ridge with a dry cold front sagging southward into the northern Plains through the period. Ahead of the front, relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota. The frontal passage will bring an increase in surface winds, with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. There is some question as to what the duration of overlap will be between the lower relative humidity and stronger wind speeds. HREF probabilities of Elevated to Critical conditions remain generally around 30-40 percent. Fuels across much of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota are critically dry. Taking into account the possibility of briefly Elevated to locally Critical conditions, an Elevated area was included with this outlook given the uncertainty. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC MD 2111

2 months ago
MD 2111 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683... FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 683... Valid 261307Z - 261500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across the Florida Peninsula this morning, persisting into the early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene is currently located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Several rainbands, with embedded thunderstorms, are located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending across the Florida Peninsula. The latest RAP has a pocket of moderate instability across the southern and central Florida Peninsula, with MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This is consistent with the Miami, Florida 12Z sounding, which also has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be favorable for tornadoes with semi-discrete supercells embedded in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Helene. The tornado threat should continue this morning and into the early afternoon as Hurricane Helene moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ..Broyles.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 27828021 28368038 28628057 28808105 28838160 28648211 28138236 27308239 26288209 25578157 25188105 25128074 25248039 25598009 26467994 27828021 Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more track, intensity, and impact details. Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed, an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However, this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 683 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 683 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0683 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC MD 2109

2 months ago
MD 2109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...South Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260846Z - 261115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of south Florida over the next few hours. Weather watch will be possible at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene is currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the outer rain bands extending to near the west coast of south Florida. The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Miami shows widely spaced discrete storms ongoing along and near the Florida Gulf Coast. The WSR-88D VWP at Miami has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 275 m2/s2, which is pretty similar to what was evident on the 06Z sounding at Miami. This will be favorable for storm rotation and potentially tornado development within the cells that obtain supercell structure. RAP forecast soundings across south Florida slowly strengthen low-level shear this morning, and have a gradual increase in instability. This suggests that the tornado threat will be maintained across south Florida. Additionally, a band of storms has developed to the south of the Florida Keys over the last couple of hours. As this band of storms spreads northward into south Florida this morning, the tornado threat may increase. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 25708005 26147999 26528003 26928031 27178098 27108143 26878182 26488202 25838192 25228197 24738201 24518184 24498160 24588130 24798075 25138027 25708005 Read more
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