SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce some small hail. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning. Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes. ...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA... Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period. Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the beginning of the forecast period, dry conditions will be prevalent across the entire Gulf basin. Southerly flow and some moisture return will begin Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front pushes dry air into the Gulf again early Thursday. This continued dry air across the Gulf will continue to limit moisture availability needed for any severe weather threat. Beyond D8/Sat there is a better signal for ridging across the central Plains and a return to quality low-level moisture across parts of Texas. However, until that time, severe weather potential will remain low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Discussion... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely. A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly closer to the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are expected to arrive after 12Z. ..Bentley.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few storms could produce at least small hail. ...Synopsis and Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the Sabine Valley into Sunday morning. While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly 850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and spread eastward across LA overnight. MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation shield. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Halbert.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... High pressure will remain situated over the majority of the CONUS through tonight, with any appreciable low-level moisture well offshore into the western Gulf. While a shortwave trough will move across AZ and NM tonight, loss of heating should minimize lapse rates and instability there. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 21 21:23:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 21 21:23:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests that the upper-level synoptic regime will become characterized by persistent upper ridging across the northeastern Pacific/western U.S. with northwesterly flow across the eastern two-thirds of the country through next week. Low-amplitude upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow will support scattered rain/snow chances to parts of the country along with breezy conditions in the wake of any attendant surface lows/cold fronts. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS (and their respective ensemble families) suggest windy conditions (winds near/above 20 mph) are likely across the central to northern High Plains in the wake of such fronts during the D4/Mon to D6/Wed time frame. Although the northwesterly downslope flow regime will promote above-normal temperatures, the combination of light rain/snow chances and the presence of an established snow pack across much of the region should limit fire concerns. This synoptic regime is typically conducive for persistent dry conditions across the Southwest/Four Corners/Southern High Plains, which is supported by recent ensemble QPF probabilities (or lack thereof). While the potential for strong winds is lower, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions should support slowly drying fuels through the extended period. Some fire concerns may emerge across NM/west TX if a sufficiently strong upper disturbance can support a low-level mass response robust enough to support winds near critical thresholds, but confidence in this potential is low. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears very low across the U.S. today through tonight. ...20Z Update... A small cluster of elevated convection developed earlier today across the Brush Country region of south TX, with sporadic lightning flashes noted. This elevated convection was apparently driven by sufficient ascent/moistening near the base of the EML noted on the 12Z CRP sounding, and aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across the region. This activity has weakened early this afternoon, and with little signal for substantial redevelopment, no general thunderstorm area has been introduced. However, very sporadic/isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out within this regime through the remainder of the afternoon, from parts of south-central TX to the middle TX coast. ..Dean.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ An expansive surface ridge and dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity across the CONUS this period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A split upper-flow regime will overspread the CONUS on Sunday, with a pronounced mid-level trough poised to traverse the U.S./Canada border as a smaller mid-level impulse progresses along the Gulf Coast. A statically stable airmass will be in place over most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. Scant elevated buoyancy will accompany the Gulf Coast trough, mainly over southern LA and immediate surrounding areas. Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected to be in progress at the start of the period (12Z Sunday), and may continue into the afternoon, until the elevated buoyancy is shunted offshore. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. Fire weather concerns remain limited for tomorrow based on recent fuel analyses and guidance, including across central NM where ensembles suggest the probability for elevated conditions is low. Elevated conditions may emerge within the downslope flow regime of southern/southeast WY, but fuel conditions are not supportive of a robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, winds will shift to more southerly, bringing warm and dry conditions back to the Southern Plains. However, surface winds will be weak and limit and potential for wildfire spread. A localized region of Elevated fire-weather conditions could occur in portions of central New Mexico, where warm and dry downslope winds are forecast to occur. However, at this time, winds are expected to be below Elevated threshold criteria, limiting any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated static stability will remain in place across much of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), inhibiting thunderstorm development over most locales. One exception will be across eastern TX into LA and extreme southwest MS. Here, low-level warm-air/moisture advection will transpire atop a cool surface airmass as a mid-level trough ejects into the southern Plains from the Southern Rockies tomorrow afternoon/evening. Deep-layer ascent will increase through the period, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm development likely by late afternoon over Coastal TX, spreading north and east into LA with time. Buoyancy will be elevated, characterized by a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE constrained above 850 mb. While the anticipated large, elongated hodographs would promote enough deep-layer shear to support some hail growth in the stronger storms, buoyancy currently appears too scant to support an organized severe hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2025 Read more