SPC Tornado Watch 688

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 688 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 271205Z - 272200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 805 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Tornado threat east of the center of Helene will shift northward across the watch area through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Florence SC to 20 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 687. Watch number 687 will not be in effect after 805 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 6045. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A small Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of south-central NV. Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in sustained 15 mph winds across this region with no appreciable moisture recovery expected over the next 24 hours. The spatial extent of 15+ mph winds appears to be greater in recent model solutions, which has increased confidence in observing at least a few hours of meeting elevated wind/RH criteria over a region with drying fuels. Windier/drier solutions also hint that gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible and may support very localized and transient critical fire weather conditions. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing southerly surface winds are expected to develop across the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, as a mid-level shortwave trough within relatively stronger southerly flow approaches the CA coast. Relative humidity in the low teens will coincide with these higher wind speeds (around 15 mph sustained) yielding at least localized elevated fire weather conditions near and south of the Toiyabe National Forest of NV, where 100-hour fuel moisture continues to decrease. Given the very localized nature of any higher wind potential, however, an Elevated area will not be included in the forecast at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 2125

1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 2125 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 271633Z - 271830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes remain possible through the rest of the afternoon as a weakening band of showers with embedded thunderstorms moves across parts of eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia. DISCUSSION...Despite numerous low-level mesocyclones during the late morning to midday, tornadogenesis has largely appeared elusive within a persistent band of convection from the central NC/VA border area southward into coastal far southern NC. One strong meso with the deepest updraft last hour may have briefly produced in southern NC per an ILM LSR. Low-level winds have subsided across the coastal plain via LTX VWP data, but do remain sufficient for a brief tornado threat amid 74-78 F surface dew points and temperatures in the low 80s. Farther north, low-level hodographs remain rather enlarged, but will shrink throughout the afternoon. Morning CAM guidance suggest a breakup to the convective band should occur, which will yield a more cellular mode. This would favor potential for a few tornadoes, but should be tempered by the otherwise diminishing shear/ascent environment. ..Grams.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 36577861 37157890 37617879 37827839 37877761 37627677 37267624 36667590 35907601 35007620 34257735 34067779 34077814 35217808 36577861 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 688 Status Reports

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CRE TO 20 S AVC TO 20 W DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-073-079-083-091-095- 103-107-117-127-129-131-133-137-139-141-143-147-177-185-187-191- 195-271840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC009-011-019-025-029-031-037-053-067-081-083-089-093-095-111- 117-135-143-147-175-181-183-199-550-590-595-620-650-680-690-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-271840- Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low resulting from interaction between Tropical Cyclone Helene and a mid-latitude cyclone will begin the period over the Lower OH Valley. Some very modest eastward progression of this system is forecast throughout the day. A surface low will be stacked beneath the upper low, with modest low-level moisture arcing cyclonically around this low from GA and Carolinas into the OH Valley. Despite the presence of this low-level moisture, relatively warm profiles will promote stable conditions, and deep convection is not anticipated. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 70s) will help support modest buoyancy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s/low 90s amid strong daytime heating. Weak low-level convergence will foster afternoon thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass. Weak shear should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low. Expansive upper ridging that covers much of the Southwest and extends into the northern Plains is forecast to remain largely in place on Saturday. Modest moisture, characterized by PW values near 0.75", is expected beneath this ridging from the Four Corners vicinity into the central/southern Rockies. Some deeper convection is possible during peak heating across the southern Rockies, but forecast soundings suggest most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Dry conditions are noted this morning across much of the West, but low-level winds should remain benign for today. Locally elevated conditions may develop in the lee of the Lewis Range and Big Belt mountains in central MT where downslope winds may gust up to 20-30 mph with RH in the 20-25% range; however, these conditions should remain too localized for a broader risk area. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday an upper-level ridge will remain in place over the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, while the remnants of Hurricane Helene rotate over the eastern CONUS centered near TN. This pattern will not favor widespread fire weather conditions, as any stronger mid-level flow and associated surface winds, accompanying a high latitude zonal jet streak, are expected to remain over the western and central provinces of Canada. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over the northern Great Plains, however, fuels will continue to become more receptive to ignition and spread there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 2124

1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 2124 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern to central/eastern NC and southern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 271348Z - 271545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to peak into early afternoon across southern, eastern, and central North Carolina, into a part of southern Virginia. This threat will abruptly end in the wake of ongoing band passage associated with Tropical Storm Helene. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing within a roughly 300-km long convective band, with the inland portion approaching the Raleigh-Durham Metro Area and the trailing portion to along the NC/SC border area. Individual cells are largely transient and progressing north at 45-55 kts. The overall band will rapidly sweep across much of central and eastern North Carolina into midday before entering southern VA. Low-level hodographs are currently maximized, with 0-1 km SRH around 500-600 m2/s2 per LTX/RAX VWP data. These are expected to shrink during the afternoon, suggesting the tornado threat will wane later today. Boundary-layer heating will remain limited by pervasive cloud coverage downstream, but even minor insolation amid mid 70s surface dew points should provide enough boost to increase daytime tornado potential. In the wake of the band, substantial mid-level warming/drying will curtail additional development and the threat will be confined along/ahead of the ongoing band. ..Grams.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35907983 36187990 36707984 37377940 37507891 37387841 37027759 35977679 35177666 34627648 33777797 33827883 35217924 35907983 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 688 Status Reports

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS TO 15 WNW FAY TO 20 NNW GSO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-017-019-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051-053-055- 061-063-065-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-095-101-103-105-107- 117-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-155-157-163-169- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-271540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT ROBESON ROCKINGHAM Read more

SPC Sep 27, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERNMOST SOUTH CAROLINA OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely through midday and remain possible into afternoon across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a zonal to west-southwesterly belt of flow will persist from the northwestern CONUS and western Canada into central Canada, well-removed from a cut-off, cold-core low now evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern MS. This low is expected to pivot slowly northeastward into middle TN by 00Z, then wobble erratically over that area and/or south-central KY through the night as it absorbs the remnant vorticity max from what is now Tropical Storm Helene. ...SC/NC/VA... The path of center of Tropical Storm Helene finally has turned northward. See SPC Tornado watch 688 and associated mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the tornado threat over the region. Refer to NHC advisories for the latest track/intensity guidance on Helene. The NHC forecast shows that the center should bend northwestward across southwestern NC, eastern TN and into southern KY through tonight, weakening greatly and becoming more closely conjoined with the mid/upper cyclone. For several more hours, into at least midday, a broad area of strong low-level flow above the surface, and related large low-level shear/hodographs, should extend well east and northeast of center across the outlook area, superimposed over: 1. Relatively maximized low-level convergence, in an arc initially located over eastern SC into southern NC, preceded by well-backed surface winds, and forecast to shift northward to northeastward today; 2. A richly moist, high-theta-e and weak-MLCINH boundary layer advecting inland from the Atlantic and characterized by surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. These conditions will yield a favorable environment for tornadoes from any supercells that can cross it, whether within or ahead of the main spiral/convergence band. The most probable area for several supercells to interact with this favorable airmass is over the 10%/"enhanced" tornado-risk area, with potential decreasing westward and northward from there due to weaker instability. Although the supportive low-level airmass will continue to shift northeastward over eastern NC and south-central/southeastern VA this afternoon, tornado potential will diminish with time from midafternoon into early evening. This will occur as convection decreases in coverage and intensity across the area due to a combination of weakening lift and shear, as the remnants of Helene decay rapidly and back well westward away from the area. This process will decouple the remaining stronger low-level flow and isallobaric forcing away from the most-favorable boundary layer near the coast, where hodographs should shrink by the hour this afternoon into evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 687 Status Reports

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MCN TO 30 W VDI TO 25 SE VDI TO 70 ESE SAV. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-033-051-073-103-107-125-141-163-165-167-175-181-189-245- 251-265-279-283-301-303-317-319-271040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BURKE CHATHAM COLUMBIA EFFINGHAM EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-271040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BLADEN BRUNSWICK CABARRUS COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND GASTON HOKE MECKLENBURG Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 687 Status Reports

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...RAH...ILM...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-029-031-033-043-051-073-081-091-093-103-107-109- 125-141-153-163-165-167-169-175-179-181-183-189-191-209-235-245- 251-265-267-271-279-283-289-301-303-309-315-317-319-270940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LIBERTY LINCOLN LONG MCDUFFIE MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON NCC007-017-019-025-047-051-071-093-119-129-141-153-155-163-165- 179-270940- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 687

1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 687 TORNADO GA NC SC CW 270055Z - 271200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Georgia Southern North Carolina South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 855 PM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Low-topped thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Helene will pose a threat for several tornadoes this evening through much of the overnight period, and continuing into early Friday morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Vidalia GA to 40 miles west northwest of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 684...WW 685...WW 686... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18050. ...Gleason Read more
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