SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is moving inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. A few thunderstorms were noted earlier this afternoon from southwest OR into northern CA, but this activity has weakened and updrafts are now struggling to attain heights necessary for lightning. While scattered weak convection will linger for several hours, the probability of thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk the rest of the period. ..Darrow.. 01/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 3 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 3 22:31:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily be focused along the southern California coast during the middle of the upcoming work week as a strong upper trough translates across the southwestern CONUS. Elsewhere, a combination of cool conditions, precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status limits confidence in additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Tue to D7/Thu - southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict the rapid amplification of an upper trough over the southern Great Basin/West Coast during the D5/Tue to D6/Wed time frame. A combination of an unseasonably strong surface high (near the 90th percentile for early Jan) across the northern Great Basin in the wake of the amplifying wave and increasing north/northeasterly mid/upper-level flow will promote increasing offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Latest deterministic solutions hint that the onset of the offshore flow regime may be as early as Tuesday morning and could last well into Thursday night with a peak in intensity sometime on Wednesday. This pattern is typical of past critical fire weather regimes and likewise will feature fire weather concerns, including the potential for high-end critical conditions. Global deterministic solutions show reasonably good agreement in the passage of the mid-level jet max on D6/Wed, which aligns well with recent GEFS/ECENS ensemble means, and will likely coincide with peak offshore winds and maximum downslope warming/drying. As such, confidence in critical fire weather conditions is sufficiently high to introduce higher, 70% risk probabilities for D6/Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions remain possible on D5/Tue through late D7/Thu, and higher risk probabilities may be required in subsequent forecasts as confidence in the fire weather threat increases. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A mid-level trough continues to approach the Pacific Northwest shoreline this afternoon, resulting in increasing deep-layer ascent and cooling aloft, which will promote isolated thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evening. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... The primary update to the previous forecast was a west/southwestward expansion of both the Elevated and Critical risk areas. Recent guidance has trended towards windier/dryer conditions across west-central to southwest NM and adjacent portions of eastern AZ. Even solutions that typically exhibit cool/moist biases (e.g. the NAM nest) suggest critical thresholds will be met across the Gila region of southwest NM. Although some variance among solutions is noted regarding the placement of the low to mid-level jet max by peak heating (which will influence peak wind speeds), 12z ensemble guidance features a sufficiently strong signal for elevated/critical fire weather conditions to warrant the westward expansion. See the previous forecast below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will move into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. Strong winds are probable across much of New Mexico with lesser winds in eastern Arizona and western Texas. The strongest surface winds are expected where the mid-level jet will move overhead during the afternoon and to the immediate lee of terrain features. These winds could reach 20-25 mph with higher speeds possible locally. RH during the afternoon will fall to 10-15% with 20-25% possible in Arizona/West Texas. Some stronger winds could push farther east into the eastern Plains of New Mexico and possibly the Texas South Plains/Panhandle. However, cloud cover appears more likely here which should limit fire weather concerns on account of higher RH. A weak offshore gradient is possible in southern California towards Sunday morning. Winds appear too light where RH is forecast to be lowest. Only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... The primary update to the previous forecast was a west/southwestward expansion of both the Elevated and Critical risk areas. Recent guidance has trended towards windier/dryer conditions across west-central to southwest NM and adjacent portions of eastern AZ. Even solutions that typically exhibit cool/moist biases (e.g. the NAM nest) suggest critical thresholds will be met across the Gila region of southwest NM. Although some variance among solutions is noted regarding the placement of the low to mid-level jet max by peak heating (which will influence peak wind speeds), 12z ensemble guidance features a sufficiently strong signal for elevated/critical fire weather conditions to warrant the westward expansion. See the previous forecast below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and attendant mid-level jet will move into the southern Rockies/southern High Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. Strong winds are probable across much of New Mexico with lesser winds in eastern Arizona and western Texas. The strongest surface winds are expected where the mid-level jet will move overhead during the afternoon and to the immediate lee of terrain features. These winds could reach 20-25 mph with higher speeds possible locally. RH during the afternoon will fall to 10-15% with 20-25% possible in Arizona/West Texas. Some stronger winds could push farther east into the eastern Plains of New Mexico and possibly the Texas South Plains/Panhandle. However, cloud cover appears more likely here which should limit fire weather concerns on account of higher RH. A weak offshore gradient is possible in southern California towards Sunday morning. Winds appear too light where RH is forecast to be lowest. Only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure from the Rockies to the Southeast will result in a dry and stable airmass for much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. The exception may be along portions of the Northwest coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across coastal OR into northern CA as a strong upper trough moves over the Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support minor instability. Low-topped convection in the wake of a surface cold front may produce sporadic lightning flashes. A few instances of small hail and gusty winds may also accompany this activity, but weak instability and modest vertical shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Areas of locally dry/windy conditions are possible from northern GA into the Carolinas as well as across the western TX/OK Panhandles and southern/central NV. While localized/transient elevated conditions are possible within these regions, marginal wind speeds/RH minimums and/or unreceptive fuels precludes greater fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong, deep upper trough will be present across the eastern U.S. today. Along the West Coast, another trough will approach the Northwest and northern California, reaching the Great Basin by Saturday morning. In the central U.S., shortwave ridging aloft is expected. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, or unreceptive fuels, fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today outside of a few locally dry and breezy locations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb) associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover. Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is forecast to progress eastward into the eastern U.S. on Monday/Day 4, as an associated cold front moves across the Atlantic Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms could develop along or ahead of the front early in the day from Florida northward into the Carolinas. From Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8, cold and dry high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental U.S., which is expected to limit thunderstorm potential in almost all areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated speed max moves into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward through the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F from approximately the Mississippi-Tennessee state line southward. Weak destabilization will occur along and near the moist axis during the day. This combined with increasing low-level convergence will result in thunderstorm development during the late morning and early afternoon. In spite of weak instability, large-scale ascent will be focused, and deep-layer shear will be strong. This environment should be favorable for a severe threat starting around midday and persisting into the evening. Some model solutions suggest a linear MCS will develop. In that case, severe wind gusts would be possible along and just ahead of the stronger parts of the line. A few tornadoes could also occur with rotating cell elements within the line. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2025 Read more