SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California. Severe weather is not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal environment. Scattered convection should develop within this environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Buoyancy, necessary for deep convection, remains shunted across the northwestern Gulf Basin. Latest lightning data depicts a few flashes about 100mi southeast of the middle TX Coast. Any thunderstorms overnight will be noted along a corridor of low-level convergence well offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Buoyancy, necessary for deep convection, remains shunted across the northwestern Gulf Basin. Latest lightning data depicts a few flashes about 100mi southeast of the middle TX Coast. Any thunderstorms overnight will be noted along a corridor of low-level convergence well offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 2 21:26:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 2 21:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS this weekend into next week, resulting in rapid surface low development over the Plains this weekend, followed by widespread surface high pressure and colder air overspreading most of the CONUS through the week. Behind the surface low, downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies will promote dry and windy conditions amid drying fuels over southern High Plains on Day 3 (Saturday), where 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. After surface high pressure becomes fortified across the Great Basin and points east next week, a pressure gradient will become established across southern California in the Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) period. Dry offshore flow atop dry fuels will promote wildfire-spread potential to some degree. There is some variability in medium-rage guidance as to when the best upper-level support will overspread southern California to promote strong to damaging offshore winds. However, there is enough agreement among guidance members in strong, dry offshore flow on Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) to warrant 40 percent Critical probabilities. As more guidance becomes available and the timing of maximum upper support becomes clearer, Critical probabilities may need to be adjusted Tuesday through Thursday, with the possibility of higher Critical probabilities being needed as well. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorms are not expected to remainder of today/tonight given dry and stable conditions across much of the country. No changes are needed with the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Great Basin and central Rockies on Saturday, likely reaching the central/southern Plains by early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with strong mid-level flow persisting throughout its southern periphery as well. Surface cyclogenesis is expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle ahead of this wave, with the resulting surface low then progressing into central OK by early Sunday. Strengthening southerly low-level flow will precede this shortwave as well, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated within the warm sector over central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, keeping much any convection within the warm sector shallow. The only exception will be early Sunday morning from far northwest TX across central OK into southeast KS. Here, cooling mid-level temperatures atop moistening low to mid-levels will support some elevated convection deep enough to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ..Marsh.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more