SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight. With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should fairly be limited. The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South. Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period early Sunday morning. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs are forecast to move through the central and eastern U.S. next week, as cold and dry high pressure dominates over most of the continental U.S. Conditions appear unfavorable for thunderstorms through Thursday/Day 6. On Friday/Day 7 into Friday night, a large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S. At this time, a surface low is forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. Some moisture return will be possible with this system in the central Gulf Coast states on Friday/Day 7, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few storms may again develop on Saturday/Day 8 as the systems affects the Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is expected in the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front, is forecast to move quickly eastward through the Southeast on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. As surface temperatures warm Monday morning within the moist airmass, enough instability is expected for isolated thunderstorm development. A few of these storms could produce a wind-damage threat, with the greatest threat along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line segments. However, model forecasts suggest that the stronger forcing associated with the mid-level trough will pass to the north of moist sector, and that low-level convergence will remain relatively weak along the front. These factors should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys... A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning, with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front. A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50 to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon. This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line, suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. ..Broyles.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025 Read more