SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 6 21:33:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 6 21:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Solutions continue to suggest the onset of critical fire weather conditions between 20-00 UTC along the southern CA coast. Windier solutions, notably the HRRR, suggest widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are possible during the overnight hours with some locations seeing RH reductions to near 10%, and possibly into the upper single digits. Consequently, high-end critical fire weather conditions are possible by the end of the period (early Wednesday morning). ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Southwest... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will close off over the Lower CO Valley into the northern Gulf of CA vicinity by early Wednesday. The lobe of ascent downstream of the trough should largely become centered across eastern AZ on Tuesday night. Amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates, minimal elevated buoyancy emanating from below-freezing parcels should develop. While scattered light showers should occur, thunder probabilities appear below 10 percent. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of southern Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0019 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA
Mesoscale Discussion 0019 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern West Virginia and northern Virginia into the DelMarVa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060712Z - 061215Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected early this morning. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow has developed across northern Virginia amid strong isentropic ascent and frontogenesis early this morning in response to a strengthening low-level jet. Evidence of this can be seen on the FCX VWP where 1.5 km winds have strengthened from 50 to 65 knots in the last 90 minutes. These conditions favorable for heavy snowfall are expected to shift east through the early morning hours with the expanding low-level jet, and heavier snowfall rates expected to impact the DelMarVa within the next few hours. Maximum snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RLX... LAT...LON 38567965 39307882 39347660 39297587 39027527 38797500 38387499 38047513 38227688 38307841 38287891 38397950 38467970 38567965 Read more

MD 0020 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...southern Virginia and far northern North Carolina Mountains Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 060744Z - 061245Z SUMMARY...Moderate freezing rain is expected to expand across southern Virginia and the northern North Carolina mountains early this morning. DISCUSSION...Temperatures are in the upper 20s to near 30 across much of southern Virginia this morning. Some snow is occurring across central Virginia where the thermodynamic column remains below freezing, but the 0C 700mb isotherm, currently located near or just south of Roanoke at 07Z will expand north amid strong warm air advection and a strengthening low-level jet. This will result in sleet or freezing rain across much of southern Virginia within the next few hours. In addition, strong isentropic lift and additional upper-level ascent will support moderate precipitation across this region for the next 6 hours with significant ice accretion likely for much of the period. Moderating temperatures may limit ice accumulation across far southern Virginia with the greatest accumulation from near Roanoke to Lynchburg to Lexington where upper 20s temperatures are most likely to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 38367972 38237800 38127668 37917617 37257615 36947676 36727839 36377971 36178072 36078128 36108164 36518166 37078166 37708078 38367972 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more