SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through the remainder of today or into tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Broad high pressure over the central US will continue to favor cool, dry and stable conditions behind a cold front. This will negate thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Hart.. 01/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas. Read more