SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern stream across TX. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, progressing through the Lower MS Valley and ending the period over AL. Another shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first wave. This second shortwave, which is currently over the central Rockies, is expected to continue quickly southeastward, reaching central TX by early tomorrow morning. Recent surface analysis places a low just off the Upper TX/southwest LA coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through the northwest Gulf. This low is expected to move eastward ahead of its parent shortwave trough, remaining just offshore while gradually deepening. With this low expected to remain offshore, little if any airmass modification in anticipated onshore with offshore flow maintaining cool and stable surface conditions. Even so, moderate low-level warm-air advection (supported by 850 mb winds from 20 to 30 kt), will persist, supporting a broad area of mostly showers from the Lower MS Valley across the central Gulf Coast. Buoyancy will be limited by moist profiles and poor lapse rates, but cool mid-level temperatures should still support enough buoyancy for isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected over LA Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of OR and WA amid the strong westerly/southwesterly upper flow and cooling mid-level temperatures anticipated throughout the period. Greatest thunderstorm chances are expected after 00Z across WA, as a shortwave trough and associated large-scale forcing for ascent move through the region. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Mostly zonal flow aloft will be present across the CONUS on Tuesday with a dry airmass in place as a surface low moves off the east coast of Florida amid northerly flow across much of the Southeast into the central and eastern Gulf. Later in the period, some southerly flow will resume across the western Gulf, but moisture will remain very shallow with no instability present. Given this dry environment across much of the CONUS, no thunderstorms are anticipated on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ..Halbert.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ..Halbert.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night. ...South Florida and the Florida Keys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR, maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida. This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low for probabilities at this time. ...Northwest... A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad fetch of west to northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern CONUS today, with the primary feature of interest being a southern-stream shortwave trough that will move from the southern Plains into the northwestern GOA. High pressure will remain over the southeastern states, which will limit northward moisture return at the surface. Given extensive cloud cover from the resulting moisture advection atop the surface stable layer, little if any heating is expected over those areas. As the shortwave trough continues eastward, low pressure will form south of the quasi-stationary front draped across the northern GOA, with a strong wind shift with the cold front behind the low. Widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms will exist over much of LA and into southern MS during the day, aided by southerly winds and theta-e advection at 850 mb. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg will be common over the northern Gulf Coast, although given largely saturated profiles, lapse rates may not favor much hail potential. As such, severe weather is not forecast, with widespread general thunderstorm activity centered over LA and into southern MS. Elsewhere, cooling aloft with a progressive wave will impact the Pacific Northwest late, with minimal instability supporting a few embedded/weak thunderstorms from the WA Cascades into western OR. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southeast TX into the northwestern Gulf, well north of the surface front. Periodically strong storm cores have been noted, primarily offshore, with indications of small hail. Continued cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough moving across TX, as well as persistent southerly 850 mb winds, will maintain substantial elevated instability through Sunday morning. As such, a few strong storms, perhaps producing localized small hail, are expected from eastern TX into LA. While an isolated marginally severe report cannot be ruled out over land, the more robust convection is expected to remain over the Gulf. ..Jewell.. 02/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 22 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 22 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the remainder of February. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS through the remainder of the month before a possible transition to a more progressive pattern (characterized by high amplitude trough intrusions into the Southwest) by early March. In the meantime, this synoptic regime will favor dry conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern Plains with light/scattered rain/snow chances elsewhere through the upcoming week. Additionally, a return to seasonal/above-seasonal temperatures is anticipated for much of the Southwest and High Plains, which should aid in gradual fuel drying where snow cover is minimal. Fire weather concerns could emerge across the southern High Plains where fuels have already been slowly drying (denoted by a slow uptick in ERCs) and winds may increase into the mid/upper teens early next week as low-amplitude upper disturbances pass over region. Deterministic solutions suggest that D3/Monday may see the best potential for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, but spread in ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions. More robust fire weather concerns are possible beginning around D7/Friday and beyond as the upper-level regime becomes more progressive, but considerable spread in both deterministic and ensembles at this range limits forecast confidence. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. ...20Z Update... Low-level warm-air and moisture advection is underway across the TX Coast, as shown by 925-700 mb trends in the last few mesoanalysis runs. Thunderstorms have developed over the past couple of hours just west of Houston and over immediate adjacent open waters. With continued low-level warm-air advection, thunderstorms should only increase in coverage through the day into tonight, from the TX Coast into the Sabine Valley. ..Squitieri.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025/ ...TX/LA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary front across the central Gulf, with a wave apparent off the coast of south TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow to the east of the surface wave will result in warm-advection/lift and an increasing threat of scattered thunderstorms over the western Gulf, and into the mid/upper TX and LA coasts. After midnight, a more pronounced shortwave trough will approach this region and may expand the deep convective risk westward into the mid/south TX coast as well. Earlier model runs suggested this late-night convection could pose a risk of hail, but recent guidance is less confident in this scenario. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for localized elevated conditions in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern NM and across east/southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle. However, coverage of elevated conditions and unreceptive fuel status should limit fire weather concerns for both regions. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds appear likely in ensemble guidance across portions of central New Mexico, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values drop below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance suggests the overall threat for wildfire ignition and spread is low. Given the lack of receptive fuels, there will be no introduction of fire-weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact, strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough, with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida. Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities. With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong, but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger, convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is rather low. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of coastal Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable conditions at the surface will continue to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. A shortwave trough moving southeastward through Texas will induce a weak surface low just south of the coastal plain regions. Greater moisture/buoyancy are still expected to remain offshore, however. Even so, weak elevated instability will exist in portions of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection may produce lightning, particularly near the coast. In the Northwest, an initial compact shortwave will move ashore during the late afternoon into the evening. While lightning production will be minimal, a few stronger elevated storms could become deep enough for charge separation along the immediate coast. ..Wendt.. 02/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Dominant surface high pressure across the central CONUS will continue to limit wind speeds for most regions for today, though dry conditions will persist for portions of the Four Corners and southeastern states. ..Moore.. 02/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A southerly shift in winds across the Southern Plains will result in a return to warmer and dryer conditions, but weak surface winds and generally unreceptive fuels will limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more