SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 23 21:17:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 23 21:17:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding. Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more