Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves toward the East Coast today. A strong surface cold front will be near the Appalachians at the beginning of the period and move into the western Atlantic by early Friday morning. Farther west, a closed low will develop and move slowly east beneath a mid-level ridge in the western CONUS. Any thunderstorm activity associated with this mid-level low should remain offshore through 12Z Friday. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Instability will remain somewhat limited ahead of a surface front as it moves east on Thursday due to limited moisture east of the Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast which could result in a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the cold front from central Alabama into South Carolina where instability may be somewhat greater, but upper-level forcing will be weaker. Thunderstorm chances will be higher across North Carolina and southern Virginia where stronger mid-level forcing will arrive Thursday evening. Minimal instability should preclude the chance of severe weather with any of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ..Thornton.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from north Texas to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany this trough as it moves south through the day. Moisture will be mostly limited, but there may be enough for some weak instability from north Texas to the Ohio Valley. As isentropic ascent and convergence along the cold front intensify, isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should be mostly diurnally driven as elevated instability will be minimal after sunset. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from north Texas to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany this trough as it moves south through the day. Moisture will be mostly limited, but there may be enough for some weak instability from north Texas to the Ohio Valley. As isentropic ascent and convergence along the cold front intensify, isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should be mostly diurnally driven as elevated instability will be minimal after sunset. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the lower 48 States today. ...Discussion... Strong upper trough is moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest Coast early this morning. This feature will deamplify a bit as it digs southeast across the northern Rockies into the central Plains/upper MS Valley region by the end of the period. As this short wave shifts inland, surface pressures will build over the northern Rockies/Great Basin forcing a cold front into the eastern Dakotas-central NE-central CO by 26/00z. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will contribute to mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings along/near the frontal zone suggest weak mid-level buoyancy, likely sufficient for at least shallow elevated convection. While a few of the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, current thinking is the probability for thunderstorms is too low to warrant a risk this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 24 21:14:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 24 21:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more