MD 0007 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central Missouri...parts of southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and parts of central Kentucky. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 051327Z - 051730Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected this morning. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snowfall has developed within a swath from central Missouri to central Kentucky this morning with a few heavy snow observations appearing recently in southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Expect moderate to heavy snow in a relatively narrow corridor north of the freezing rain from east-central Missouri to parts of central Kentucky. In addition to the radar depiction and surface observations indicating heavy snow, the 12Z HRRR shows a swath of significant accumulation between 13Z and 17Z. By midday much of this area will switch to freezing rain with the heavy snow swath shifted farther north during the afternoon as warm air advection strengthens ahead of the approaching surface low. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 39499336 39539107 39158827 38458601 37838508 37228527 37158559 38248806 38799238 38929316 39109347 39499336 Read more

MD 0008 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...much of southern Missouri...far southern Illinois and western Kentucky Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 051356Z - 051800Z SUMMARY...A combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will become mostly rain by late morning. DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis shows a 1004 mb surface low in eastern Oklahoma with strong high pressure across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. Northeasterly surface winds resulting from this pressure gradient continue to supply low-level arctic air to areas north of the warm front from Kansas to the Lower Ohio Valley. Strong 850mb warm air advection has resulted in a thermal profile favorable for freezing rain across a broad region from southeast Kansas and across much of southern Missouri early this morning. The 0C 850mb line will continue to slowly shift north as strong warm air advection occurs ahead of the surface cyclone. This will result in snow changing to freezing rain in the next few hours across parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Areas across southern Missouri where temperatures are currently near freezing will likely rise above freezing this morning and bring an end to the freezing rain threat. However, for much of the area currently observing freezing rain, the threat will persist through at least midday. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... ICT... LAT...LON 38829303 38599513 38039660 37519705 37069705 37129616 37359499 37229349 36719201 36478977 36408809 36398705 36808590 37198570 38238808 38829303 Read more

MD 0009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of east Texas...southern Arkansas...and northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051508Z - 051745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through midday. A risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and isolated small hail is expected from East Texas into northwest Louisiana and southern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has already developed this morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front extending across eastern OK into northeast and central Texas. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture is increasing on southerly low-level flow across the Sabine Valley. Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s F are noted in surface observations from just south of Shreveport southward to the Gulf coast. As a warm front draped across southwest AR into central LA lifts northward through early afternoon, destabilization is expected to increase with north and eastward extent. Regional VAD wind profiles and morning soundings show strong vertical shear is already in place, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt noted. Furthermore, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs are evident, aided by an intense low-level jet near 50 kt overspreading the region. This will support organized, rotating storms capable of damaging gusts and tornadoes. Given the fairly quick eastward-moving cold front, linear forcing mechanisms will likely favor continued development of a QLCS just ahead of the front. Strong forcing and increasing low-level moisture will also aid in erosion of capping south of the warm front. Some potential exists for semi-discrete cell development ahead of the QLCS in low-level confluence bands. These bands are already evident in morning visible satellite imagery and region radar data. Isolated convection has already started to develop within these bands near the Sabine River. Any discrete supercells developing within the deeper moisture in the warm sector wedge will pose a risk for all severe hazards. Given current trends, a tornado watch will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31999566 31279609 30819613 30379598 30079530 30079472 30349403 31369258 32689210 33419220 33899288 34059359 33669450 32249550 31999566 Read more

MD 0006 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Kansas into west-central Missouri Concerning...Blizzard Valid 051251Z - 051715Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates and winds are increasing. Blizzard conditions will develop this morning. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snow is now being observed across most of northeast Kansas and west-central Missouri. Expect further increase in snowfall intensity through the morning as the mid-latitude cyclone continues to organize. Snowfall rates over 2 inches per hour are possible with 40 to 50% probabilities indicated by the HREF. In addition, winds are expected to increase further as strong high pressure builds into the northern Plains. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph for much of the day. This will result in significant blowing and drifting and visibility restrictions. Blizzard/near-blizzard conditions are likely along the I-70 corridor from central Kansas to west-central Missouri through most of the day today. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37959724 38299568 38529427 39049332 39649338 40099518 40029682 39769780 38549803 37959724 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough over the central U.S. A powerful mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over OK and move into the lower OH Valley/Mid South with an accompanying 100-kt 500mb speed max over the central Gulf Coast states by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone over northeast OK will develop east into the KY/TN border region late. An accompanying cold front over the southern Great Plains this morning will sweep southeastward into the lower MS Valley by late afternoon before moving into the southern Appalachians and FL Panhandle by daybreak Monday. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states... A weak thunderstorm band this morning from western AR into northeast TX has developed immediately ahead of the front in response to intensifying large-scale ascent and strong low-level warm/moist advection. Despite a pronounced capping inversion noted on the 12z Shreveport, LA raob, additional moistening/destabilization and ascent will promote additional storm development late this morning into the afternoon. Model guidance shows only weak elevated instability over northeast AR into western TN, but larger buoyancy will exist over southern AR/LA/east TX where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected. Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs across the surface-based warm sector with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 250-500 m2/s2 range. It appears a mix of pre-frontal and frontal thunderstorm activity will evolve late this morning through the early evening. The stronger and more persistent updrafts ahead of the front will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility for strong tornadoes. Damaging gusts and perhaps some tornado risk will likely evolve with the frontal convection (QLCS) as it gradually intensifies this afternoon and likely persists across the coastal plain through tonight. Have increased low-severe probabilities farther east into southeast AL where model guidance shows weak destabilization prior to frontal passage late tonight. ..Smith/Weinman.. 01/05/2025 Read more

MD 0005 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwest and south-central Kansas. Concerning...Blizzard Valid 051039Z - 051545Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions developing. DISCUSSION...A deformation band has started to organize across southwest Kansas and the OK/northern TX Panhandles. As this rotates eastward, heavy snow with 1+ inch per hour rates are expected. In addition, strong winds are already present (sustained 31 mph at KGBD on the 956Z observation) and are expected to strengthen further over the next 3 to 6 hours. Temperatures are in the mid teens which should result in less dense snow and accentuate visibility reductions amid strong winds. This will likely result in some blizzard conditions across parts of southwest and south-central Kansas through the morning. Freezing rain is falling across eastern portions of the MD area where warmer mid-level air has advected west to the north of the surface low. However, expect these areas to transition to snow after 13-14Z once the surface low moves farther east. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36990001 37430025 38430028 38700013 38789829 38609760 38119746 37449791 37019823 36990001 Read more

MD 0004 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...east-central Kansas...much of central Missouri...southern Illinois...and far western Kentucky. Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 050840Z - 051345Z SUMMARY...An expansive region of mostly freezing rain with some embedded thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the overnight period. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and isolated sleet is being observed early this morning across a broad region from south-central Kansas to western Illinois and far western Kentucky. A broad region of isentropic ascent will support continued precipitation development along the frontal zone through the early morning hours. In addition, low-level cold air will continue to advect into the region with an area of arctic high pressure extending from the northern Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures are currently above freezing across southeast Missouri and into western Kentucky. However, wet-bulb cooling should result in below freezing temperatures shortly after precipitation begins. Widespread lightning has been observed with the freezing rain activity across central/eastern Kansas over the last 1 to 2 hours. Forecast soundings show elevated instability which should continue to support the threat for thunderstorms through the early morning hours across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. These heavier precipitation cores may not be that efficient at ice accretion where temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s. However, where temperatures are in the mid 20s or colder, these heavier precipitation rates could result in substantial freezing rain accretion in a very short period. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37389685 37429731 37569759 37919757 38239713 38399651 38629522 38659105 38648996 38348878 37538768 36798709 36298712 36899163 37289338 37619566 37409657 37389685 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary threats. A couple of strong tornadoes may also occur. ...East Texas into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A strong shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains this morning will evolve into a closed upper low later today over eastern KS/western MO. Related mid-level height falls and large-scale ascent will encourage the primary surface low over central OK to develop eastward to the Mid-South vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. An attendant cold front will continue to sweep east-southeastward over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast through tonight. Pronounced low-level mass response, with a 45-60 kt low-level jet, will aid in the northward transport of partially modified Gulf moisture across east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the surging cold front. Even though low/mid-level lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the cold front from parts of east TX to northern MS and vicinity. Filtered daytime heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon, with weaker instability with northward extent into western TN near the surface low. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be present across the warm sector to support organized severe convection, including the potential for some supercells. Current expectations are for surface-based convection to develop and corresponding severe threat to increase in the early to mid afternoon as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Given the forcing of the cold front itself, a line of convection is expected to eventually consolidate and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward through the early evening. However, most high-resolution guidance shows some chance for thunderstorms to develop along a weak surface trough/confluence zone ahead of the front early this afternoon from parts of central/northern LA into western MS. The strong low-level jet will support enhanced low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-350+ m2/s2), and a threat for tornadoes with any supercells that can mature in the narrow warm sector ahead of the surging cold front. Given the rather favorable shear and enlarged low-level hodographs shown in 06Z NAM/11Z RAP forecast soundings, a couple of strong (EF-2) tornadoes appear possible with any sustained supercell across this region. The best time frame for this tornado potential should be mainly around 19-23Z, before any pre-frontal convection becomes absorbed within the line. Isolated hail may also occur with this activity. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will still remain possible for as long as the line can remain surface based. Severe potential should quickly diminish with the line late this evening and overnight as it continues into AL and encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/05/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as another mid-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. This second trough is forecast to move into the Rockies on Thursday/Day 5 and into the Great Plains on Friday/Day 6. Some thunderstorm activity will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain Thursday night, and along the central Gulf Coast on Friday. Ahead of the system, moisture return is forecast to be minimal across the western and central Gulf Coast. The airmass overland is expected to be relatively stable, minimizing any convective potential. As the mid-level system continues to move eastward, thunderstorms could develop over parts of Florida on Saturday, with any storms moving off the coast into the Atlantic on Sunday. Throughout the Day 4 to 8 period, instability is expected to be very limited minimizing any chance for thunderstorms, and making severe storms very unlikely. Read more

MD 0003 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...north-central to northeast Kansas into far west-central Missouri Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 050751Z - 051245Z SUMMARY...Localized snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour expected by 09Z with widespread heavy snow after 11Z. DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation field extends from central Kansas to western Illinois within a broad region of strong isentropic ascent. Most of this precipitation has been mixed phase thus far, but a larger region of heavy snow is expected within the next 1 to 2 hours. The initial signs of this development can be seen in regional composite radar across central Kansas as the precipitation shield expands into the cold air as strong frontogenesis pivots across the state. Expect a more sharp precipitation type gradient across Kansas by 10-11 UTC as the frontal zone becomes better defined with the strengthening mid-latitude cyclone. This should result in a southeastward shift of the rain/snow line with more of central/east-central Kansas switching to all snow. As the mid-latitude cyclone continues to strengthen and high pressure across the northern Plains continues to shift south, the pressure gradient will strengthen, particularly across northern Kansas with some localized blizzard conditions possible by daybreak. More widespread blizzard conditions are expected during the day along the I-70 corridor from Salina to Kansas City. ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38659617 38259711 38239851 38420010 38780016 39309985 39989887 40019577 39989512 39869431 39669407 39399415 39119449 38679609 38659617 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night across the continental U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low is forecast to close off over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as a large-scale mid-level trough moves southeastward through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a large high pressure area with cold and dry conditions will dominate much of the continental U.S. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With a fairly expansive trough across much of the U.S. on Monday, fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on account of cool/cold conditions and higher RH values. There will be modest increase in offshore winds in southern California towards Tuesday morning, but winds and RH still appear too marginal for more than a locally elevated threat. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley today. As this occurs, a strong cold front will push into the southern Plains and into the Gulf by Monday morning. Behind the cold front, the coldest air is expected to lag enough in the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas that temperatures could warm enough to support 15-25% RH. Winds will likely reach 15-20 mph as well. A brief period of elevated fire weather appears possible. Elsewhere, with only weak offshore winds expected, locally elevated fire weather may occur in parts of southern California. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states on Monday, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Atlantic Coastal states. Thunderstorms may be ongoing along and near the front at the start of the period from the Florida Panhandle into south-central Georgia. This line of convection is forecast to move eastward across the remainder of Georgia by early afternoon. The southern end of the line is forecast to move across northern Florida during the morning and afternoon. Although large-scale ascent and low-level convergence should be relatively weak, the line may re-organize somewhat as surface heating takes place. Forecast soundings by 21Z on Monday across northern Florida have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This could be enough for marginally severe gusts, with the stronger components of the line. ..Broyles.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley to central Gulf States... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough advancing east across CO/NM. This feature is forecast to strengthen as it progresses into eastern KS/OK, with a closed low expected to form as deepens. By 18z, the 500mb low should be over southeastern KS with subsequent movement into southern IL by the end of the period. This deepening low will be reflected at the surface by a sharp cold front that will extend from eastern OK into central TX at sunrise. The boundary will surge east during the day serving as the primary focus for organized convection. Early in the period, elevated convection is expected along a corridor of strong warm advection from eastern KS into western TN. Intense LLJ will be focused across the lower MS Valley through 18z, then shift east, extending across northern MS into southern KY by early evening. Boundary-layer moistening is expected to be aided by LLJ, with gradual destabilization forecast ahead of the front, especially across the lower MS Valley. Latest data does, however, maintain a cooler, stable boundary layer across much of TN where poor low-level trajectories will inhibit destabilization. Latest thinking is the greatest potential for boundary-layer destabilization will be across east TX/LA into portions of MS. Given the strong, dynamic short wave and intense mid-level height falls, a forced line of convection should develop along the cold front, possibly as early as late morning. Scattered convection may initiate across the warm sector over eastern OK shortly after 12z, then gradually expand in areal coverage with a broken squall line, or QLCS, likely by 18-20z from northern AR-northwest LA-southeast TX. Strong shear favors organized squall line, and embedded supercells. Additionally, if adequate warm-sector destabilization occurs, isolated supercells may develop ahead of the squall line. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are the greatest concern, though some risk for marginally severe hail is also possible. Organized QLCS should propagate across the lower MS Valley into western AL during the evening where it will encounter a more stable air mass. Severe probabilities are notably lower across this lower buoyancy environment. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley to central Gulf States... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough advancing east across CO/NM. This feature is forecast to strengthen as it progresses into eastern KS/OK, with a closed low expected to form as deepens. By 18z, the 500mb low should be over southeastern KS with subsequent movement into southern IL by the end of the period. This deepening low will be reflected at the surface by a sharp cold front that will extend from eastern OK into central TX at sunrise. The boundary will surge east during the day serving as the primary focus for organized convection. Early in the period, elevated convection is expected along a corridor of strong warm advection from eastern KS into western TN. Intense LLJ will be focused across the lower MS Valley through 18z, then shift east, extending across northern MS into southern KY by early evening. Boundary-layer moistening is expected to be aided by LLJ, with gradual destabilization forecast ahead of the front, especially across the lower MS Valley. Latest data does, however, maintain a cooler, stable boundary layer across much of TN where poor low-level trajectories will inhibit destabilization. Latest thinking is the greatest potential for boundary-layer destabilization will be across east TX/LA into portions of MS. Given the strong, dynamic short wave and intense mid-level height falls, a forced line of convection should develop along the cold front, possibly as early as late morning. Scattered convection may initiate across the warm sector over eastern OK shortly after 12z, then gradually expand in areal coverage with a broken squall line, or QLCS, likely by 18-20z from northern AR-northwest LA-southeast TX. Strong shear favors organized squall line, and embedded supercells. Additionally, if adequate warm-sector destabilization occurs, isolated supercells may develop ahead of the squall line. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are the greatest concern, though some risk for marginally severe hail is also possible. Organized QLCS should propagate across the lower MS Valley into western AL during the evening where it will encounter a more stable air mass. Severe probabilities are notably lower across this lower buoyancy environment. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/05/2025 Read more

MD 0002 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into far western Missouri Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 050238Z - 050845Z SUMMARY...Areas of light freezing rain may intensify later this evening, spreading out of south-central Kansas into far western Missouri. Small hail may also occur from far northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Light freezing drizzle/rain persists this evening over south-central KS north of the warm front over northern OK. VWPs indicate increasing southwest flow just above the stable/cold boundary layer, which will result in increasing moisture advection and lift atop the cold air mass. Indications are that heavier convective elements/elevated thunderstorms may form over far northern OK into southern KS between 03-06Z. As this activity expands northeast and north of the freezing line, moderate to heavy bursts of freezing rain may occur. Forecast soundings indicate several hundred J/kg MUCAPE will develop by 06Z, and very small hail cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37939408 37899458 37839508 37749580 37689647 37599709 37539764 37499813 37579841 37899841 38419798 38689652 38829442 38659376 38389367 38119374 37939408 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 5 00:40:02 UTC 2025.