SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more

MD 1954 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 190258Z - 190430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...An organized line of convection, though becoming increasingly elevated, will produce occasional wind damage in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is not anticipate tonight. DISCUSSION...Cold cloud tops are evident on IR satellite imagery in central Arkansas. Convection has maintained some intensity despite moving into outflow from earlier convection. The observed Little Rock 00Z sounding showed stable low-level conditions, but steep lapse rates aloft and ample elevated buoyancy. Farther south, when modifying the observed 00Z Shreveport sounding, MLCIN has been increasing with time. Given the organization of the line and the elevated buoyancy in the region, a few downdrafts may be able to overcome low-level inhibition and produce isolated wind damage tonight. Overall convective/observational trends suggest that a new watch into parts of northern Louisiana is not likely. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34189441 34339371 34629220 34549168 33359183 32349231 32279347 32899437 34189441 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S RKR TO 45 SE FSM TO 25 NNE RUE TO 65 NE PBF TO 40 N GLH TO 20 ESE GWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059- 069-079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-149- 190240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-190240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 637 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 182030Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Western Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the late afternoon across central Arkansas and track southeastward across the watch area. a few intense storms capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Fort Smith AR to 60 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 638 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW GZH TO 25 ENE GZH TO 15 SSE TOI TO 25 N DHN TO 30 ENE DHN TO 20 SW ABY TO 20 E ABY TO 55 WSW VDI TO 20 WNW VDI TO 20 NE VDI TO 25 WNW SAV. ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-035-039-045-053-061-067-069-099-190240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE FLC005-013-033-039-059-063-091-113-131-133-190240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-027-069-071-075-087-099-109-131-155- 161-173-185-201-205-209-253-267-271-275-277-279-309-321- Read more

WW 638 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 182310Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 710 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail will continue south-southeastward across the region this evening within a hot/moist environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Pensacola FL to 30 miles east southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636...WW 637... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1950 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1950 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182306Z - 190130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and severe hail are possible as thunderstorms track northeastward into this evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving across portions of southeast ID and southwest MT this afternoon -- along the eastern periphery of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. These storms are along the eastern periphery of a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterly flow, which is contributing to favorable deep-layer shear for some convective organization -- given sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and steep deep-layer lapse rates. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk of isolated severe hail and locally severe downbursts. With time, some localized upscale growth is expected as storms track northeastward into this evening, with an increasing risk of embedded severe wind gusts (60-70 mph). Overall, the severe risk is expected to be too localized for a watch consideration. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 44931269 44501262 43661214 42891195 42211237 42111312 42211425 42511456 43321445 43701412 44201392 45131410 45471445 46041435 47621339 47821294 47851252 47631197 47181155 46521160 45711242 44931269 Read more

MD 1951 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Arkansas into east-central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637... Valid 182313Z - 190115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will remain possible into the early evening. Storms in northwest and south-central Arkansas will pose the greatest risk of these hazards. DISCUSSION...Scattered storm development in central Arkansas has produced a cold pool that is pushing south and east. Storms, particularly along the southern edge where it is more unstable, continue to develop. Recently, Pine Bluff gusted to 44 kts as storms moved through. this activity will continue to pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail as it progresses south/southeast. In Northwest Arkansas, additional storms are beginning to develop as a weakening MCV/cold pool moves into the strongly buoyant airmass. Wind gusts of 44-56 kts have already been observed with this activity. Isolated large hail may also occur within initially discrete updrafts. The airmass in west-central Arkansas has thus far not been affected by convection and this activity may tend to propagate into this area. ..Wendt.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35979528 36519477 36719404 36669352 35249180 35219169 34069057 33219048 32759136 32759200 32889231 33189310 35979528 Read more

MD 1952 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638... FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1952 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Southern Alabama into southern Georgia and far northern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638... Valid 190031Z - 190200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage will remain possible for the next 1-3 hours before a gradual weakening trend will become increasingly likely. DISCUSSION...Modestly organized clusters/linear segments continue across southern portions of Alabama and Georgia. Within the last half hour, 37 knots was the highest measured gust at Warner Robbins along with a few wind damage reports. The strongest effective shear remains across the western portions of this activity, though linear organization has been greater farther east. The expectation is for wind damage to remain possible over the next 1-3 hours before diurnal stabilization weakens activity. Regional radar imagery did show a fine line feature moving north. This is likely the Gulf Breeze front. Some possible brief intensification/redevelopment is possible as outflow/storms interact with this front. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31988788 32238723 32278592 32008527 31818498 31688454 31888421 32418348 32688237 32838161 32148126 31198280 30778472 30708662 30768727 31208780 31988788 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds remain possible into tonight along an axis from eastern Kansas into Mississippi, then extending eastward into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. A couple severe wind/hail producing storms may persist across the northern Rockies, with a couple of storms crossing the international border into North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge persists across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough meanders toward the Atlantic from the eastern U.S. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (some strong to occasionally severe) continue to percolate in intensity all along the periphery of both the upper trough and ridge, from the eastern Seaboard to the northern Rockies. Moderate to strong buoyancy should persist for at least a couple of hours past sunset, promoting continued severe wind/hail potential with the stronger storms. The primary changes to the outlook were to trim severe probabilities across portions of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and the central Rockies, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms have diluted buoyancy. Otherwise, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, driven by wind/hail, were added to parts of north-central ND, where a few southward-surging supercells may cross the international border with a severe threat before nocturnal cooling and associated MLCINH help weaken the storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds remain possible into tonight along an axis from eastern Kansas into Mississippi, then extending eastward into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. A couple severe wind/hail producing storms may persist across the northern Rockies, with a couple of storms crossing the international border into North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge persists across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough meanders toward the Atlantic from the eastern U.S. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (some strong to occasionally severe) continue to percolate in intensity all along the periphery of both the upper trough and ridge, from the eastern Seaboard to the northern Rockies. Moderate to strong buoyancy should persist for at least a couple of hours past sunset, promoting continued severe wind/hail potential with the stronger storms. The primary changes to the outlook were to trim severe probabilities across portions of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and the central Rockies, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms have diluted buoyancy. Otherwise, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, driven by wind/hail, were added to parts of north-central ND, where a few southward-surging supercells may cross the international border with a severe threat before nocturnal cooling and associated MLCINH help weaken the storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MEI TO 50 W SEM TO 15 E SEM TO 25 NE TOI TO 45 NE DHN TO 15 NW ABY TO 40 NE ABY TO 35 SSE MCN TO 35 SE MCN TO 25 NNE VDI. ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-047-085-091-101-109-190140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK DALLAS LOWNDES MARENGO MONTGOMERY PIKE GAC023-053-081-091-175-197-235-315-190140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP DODGE LAURENS MARION PULASKI WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MEI TO 50 W SEM TO 15 E SEM TO 25 NE TOI TO 45 NE DHN TO 15 NW ABY TO 40 NE ABY TO 35 SSE MCN TO 35 SE MCN TO 25 NNE VDI. ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-047-085-091-101-109-190140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK DALLAS LOWNDES MARENGO MONTGOMERY PIKE GAC023-053-081-091-175-197-235-315-190140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP DODGE LAURENS MARION PULASKI WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 636 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Central Georgia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing across north-central Alabama/Georgia in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. These storms will progress southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 65 miles southeast of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-190140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-190140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 638 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952 ..WENDT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-190140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-039-059-063-091-113-131-133-190140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GADSDEN HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-027-031-037-043-061-069-071-075-087- Read more