SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Fire weather potential remains low for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of the front. Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so, there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal given the limited instability forecast over land. ...Outer Banks... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited spatially for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0019 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA
Mesoscale Discussion 0019 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern West Virginia and northern Virginia into the DelMarVa Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060712Z - 061215Z SUMMARY...1+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected early this morning. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow has developed across northern Virginia amid strong isentropic ascent and frontogenesis early this morning in response to a strengthening low-level jet. Evidence of this can be seen on the FCX VWP where 1.5 km winds have strengthened from 50 to 65 knots in the last 90 minutes. These conditions favorable for heavy snowfall are expected to shift east through the early morning hours with the expanding low-level jet, and heavier snowfall rates expected to impact the DelMarVa within the next few hours. Maximum snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RLX... LAT...LON 38567965 39307882 39347660 39297587 39027527 38797500 38387499 38047513 38227688 38307841 38287891 38397950 38467970 38567965 Read more

MD 0020 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Areas affected...southern Virginia and far northern North Carolina Mountains Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 060744Z - 061245Z SUMMARY...Moderate freezing rain is expected to expand across southern Virginia and the northern North Carolina mountains early this morning. DISCUSSION...Temperatures are in the upper 20s to near 30 across much of southern Virginia this morning. Some snow is occurring across central Virginia where the thermodynamic column remains below freezing, but the 0C 700mb isotherm, currently located near or just south of Roanoke at 07Z will expand north amid strong warm air advection and a strengthening low-level jet. This will result in sleet or freezing rain across much of southern Virginia within the next few hours. In addition, strong isentropic lift and additional upper-level ascent will support moderate precipitation across this region for the next 6 hours with significant ice accretion likely for much of the period. Moderating temperatures may limit ice accumulation across far southern Virginia with the greatest accumulation from near Roanoke to Lynchburg to Lexington where upper 20s temperatures are most likely to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 38367972 38237800 38127668 37917617 37257615 36947676 36727839 36377971 36178072 36078128 36108164 36518166 37078166 37708078 38367972 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday, surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A zonal mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the southeastern part of the continental U.S. on Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses southeastward across the central states. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be in place over much of the nation, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to strengthen within the Great Basin/lower Colorado River Valley on Tuesday. This trough will eventually evolve into a cutoff low centered over the lower Colorado River Valley overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a strong surface high will build into the Great Basin, extending even into the Plains. ...Southern California... The combination of an intensifying offshore pressure gradient and strong upper-level wind support will promote elevated to critical fire weather across much of southern California. The strongest winds will occur within the typical Santa Ana wind corridors. Winds of at least 20-25 mph will be possible, with stronger winds within the terrain. Current model guidance suggests the strongest wind gusts will be during the evening when mid-level jet core will be overhead. RH during Tuesday afternoon could fall to 10-20%. Some overnight RH recovery is possible, but strong winds should continue to support fire weather concerns into Wednesday morning. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive trough is expected to persist across much of the U.S. today. Cool/cold temperatures, as well as precipitation, over many areas will greatly limit fire weather potential. There will be an increase in the offshore pressure gradient in southern California overnight into Tuesday morning. At this time, RH does not appear low enough nor do strong winds look widespread enough for more than a locally elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level zonal flow regime is forecast over the southeastern third of the nation on Tuesday, as a mid-level low closes off over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, cold and dry high pressure will be present over nearly the entire continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025 Read more

MD 0017 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern Ohio into northern West Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 060339Z - 060745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow in the vicinity of Wilmington, OH will spread eastward into West Virginia tonight. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour possible. DISCUSSION...Strong ascent from a potent 850 mb jet as well as an approaching shortwave trough will promote efficient dendritic growth and snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour tonight. Recent observation from Lebanon, OH in conjunction with KILN radar data suggest moderate snow with embedded heavier pockets is occurring. Snowfall is primarily focused north of the Ohio River (per KILN dual-pol data) and the expectation is for that to continue. These heavier snowfall rates will eventually shift eastward into West Virginia. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39468449 39698441 39988331 39788046 39687918 39257873 38737907 38508019 38618173 38888324 39268445 39308458 39468449 Read more

MD 0015 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 052312Z - 060415Z SUMMARY...Additional freezing rain, moderate to heavy at times, is possible through about midnight to 1 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Freezing rain continues to be observed in portions of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Continued ascent from low-level warm advection and the approach of the upstream trough will promote continued precipitation into this evening. Regional radar shows some heavier pockets of precipitation moving eastward from western Kentucky/southern Indiana. Dual-pol radar and surface observations indicate that a transition to snow is roughly along the Ohio River and should remain in that general vicinity. By midnight to 1 AM EST, weakening ascent and drier air moving in aloft will likely begin to limit overall precipitation rates and potential for ice accumulations. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38158726 38648664 38558409 38218279 37848256 37628298 37548379 37548469 37768671 37938710 38158726 Read more

MD 0016 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0602 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of central Louisiana...much of Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 060002Z - 060200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible across the watch area, along with locally damaging winds. DISCUSSION...A relatively wide squall line with embedded cells extends from northeast MS into central LA as of 00Z. Gusty southerly winds continue to bring warming northward ahead of the line, with the instability/theta-e axis roughly from south-central LA to near Jackson, MS. The warm front remains draped from eastern MS into southwest AL. Shear profiles remain strong just ahead of the cold front, with effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2. Stronger low-level shear exists farther east into northeast MS/AL/TN, but the air mass remains stable for surface-based parcels at this time. Hodographs do remain quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes, given a discrete cell and/or stronger core within the line. Otherwise, given the relatively poor condition of the air mass even over the northern Gulf of Mexico (where dewpoints are only in the low to mid 60s F), it does not appear that appreciable instability will be able to develop very far east of the existing watch, at least over the next few hours. As such, an addition watch is not expected, but surface trends will continue to be monitored. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30589275 31539145 32729026 33978934 34088889 33758854 32848825 31968842 31118925 30789078 30389222 30349269 30589275 Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP. ..JEWELL..01/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 060240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE Read more

WW 2 TORNADO AR LA MS 051935Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Arkansas Eastern and Southeast Louisiana Southwest into Central and Northern Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop ahead a squall line this afternoon and evening. The more intense storms will likely be supercellular and pose a risk for tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. Scattered damaging gusts and a risk for a tornado will also accompany the squall line as it pushes east across the Watch area this afternoon through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Oxford MS to 75 miles south southeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered damaging gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is currently located just southeast of Kansas City, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will shift into southern IL by the end of the period as a secondary mid-level speed max translates across east TX into central MS by 12z. An elongated corridor of strong-severe convection, roughly 600 mi long, extends ahead of the front from northeast MS-southern LA-off the upper TX Coast. Several embedded supercells are noted along this corridor, but this activity more resembles a squall line with QLCS characteristics. This activity has struggled to produce severe at times, but locally damaging winds remain likely along the leading edge. Even so, strong 0-3SRH does warrant concern, and despite the marginal buoyancy, tornado risk continues, especially with supercells. ..Darrow.. 01/06/2025 Read more