SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. ...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as flow strengthens from the southwest over the southern Plains. Moisture advection will take place during the day across much of central and east Texas, in association with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F in parts of the southern Texas Hill Country extending eastward into east Texas. The models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will first develop during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of central and north Texas, along the northern edge of the moist sector. At that time, forecast soundings in north Texas have a sharp temperature inversion at the low-levels with weak instability located above the inversion. These storms will be elevated, and any severe threat with this activity should be marginal. A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over the southern Plains as the mid-level system approaches from the west. During the evening, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move through west Texas. In association with the jet, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to markedly increase. This will likely lead to more vigorous convective development over western parts of the Texas Hill Country during the mid to late evening. Forecast soundings near Fredericksburg, Texas at 06Z have MUCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg with effective shear near 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Some of the storms could become surface-based late Wednesday night, with a threat for isolated severe gusts. The severe threat may persist through daybreak Thursday morning as an MCS organizes and the system approaches the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower development will be possible near the Red River along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower development will be possible near the Red River along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper trough axis, combined with broad-scale ascent, will continue to support adequate buoyancy for isolated, transient thunderstorms. Further east, weak ascent along a diffuse frontal zone and within the right-entrance of an upper-level jet will continue to promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into the lower MS River Valley and parts of western AL. 00 UTC soundings from SHV and LCH sampled buoyancy that is sufficient for deep convection (MUCAPE between 100-200 J/kg), but likely inadequate to pose a robust severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.