SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower development will be possible near the Red River along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower development will be possible near the Red River along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper trough axis, combined with broad-scale ascent, will continue to support adequate buoyancy for isolated, transient thunderstorms. Further east, weak ascent along a diffuse frontal zone and within the right-entrance of an upper-level jet will continue to promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into the lower MS River Valley and parts of western AL. 00 UTC soundings from SHV and LCH sampled buoyancy that is sufficient for deep convection (MUCAPE between 100-200 J/kg), but likely inadequate to pose a robust severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS remains low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The primary upper-level features of interest for Tuesday will be the shortwave ridge over the southern Plains and a slowly eastward progressing upper low in the Southwest. Models continue to show positional variability with regard to the upper low with the ECMWF/GFS being slightly slower than the NAM. Subsidence/capping should keep any potential for thunderstorms very low across the southern Plains through much of Tuesday night. As the upper low moves east, surface low development in northern Mexico/West Texas will begin to draw Gulf of Mexico moisture north and westward. Moistening at 850 mb will be greater than near the surface, however. Towards Wednesday morning, some elevated CAPE will be present from Central into East Texas. Given remnant influences from the upper-level ridging and nebulous forcing, capping will likely prohibit thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS remains low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... The primary upper-level features of interest for Tuesday will be the shortwave ridge over the southern Plains and a slowly eastward progressing upper low in the Southwest. Models continue to show positional variability with regard to the upper low with the ECMWF/GFS being slightly slower than the NAM. Subsidence/capping should keep any potential for thunderstorms very low across the southern Plains through much of Tuesday night. As the upper low moves east, surface low development in northern Mexico/West Texas will begin to draw Gulf of Mexico moisture north and westward. Moistening at 850 mb will be greater than near the surface, however. Towards Wednesday morning, some elevated CAPE will be present from Central into East Texas. Given remnant influences from the upper-level ridging and nebulous forcing, capping will likely prohibit thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning in the lower Mississippi Valley, southern California, and portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will remain across much of the East into parts of the Midwest tomorrow. A cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico. Farther west, a broad upper low will move through southern California and into the Southwest. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early Monday morning within a weak elevated buoyancy environment. This activity will continue into mid/late morning before low-level convergence/warm advection weakens. ...Southern California into Lower Colorado Valley... Cold temperatures aloft and modest mid-level ascent will promote showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms from the southern California coast into parts of the lower Colorado Valley. Most of this activity will occur during the early to late morning. Thereafter, forcing for ascent should weaken and slight mid-level warming should reduce what will already be minimal buoyancy to negligible levels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more