SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge is forecast over the southern Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly over western parts of the southern Plains, as low-level moisture advection occurs across the southern part of Texas. Although showers could develop late in the period near the northern edge of the stronger flow over northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma, instability should be too weak to support thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning flashes have occurred this afternoon/evening across central California. A few lightning flashes could persist this evening as the upper low continues to shift south across the state. 00Z RAOBS from LCH and SHV indicate strong capping remains in place across east Texas into western Louisiana. Expect this capping inversion to remain through much of the overnight period. However, as low-level warm air advection and moistening continues, sufficient elevated instability for a few thunderstorms may develop close to 12Z from east/southeast Texas into northern Louisiana and perhaps southern Arkansas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/26/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 25 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 25 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the East Coast while an upper-low drifts across the Southwest on Monday. A surface cold front will move off of LA to FL Panhandle coastline during the first half of the period. Enough lift and moisture ahead of the front may support an isolated thunderstorm before the front moves offshore. A couple of thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over southern CA, where cold air aloft associated with an upper-low may result in enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support low-topped thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 01/25/2025 Read more