WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0010 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning Sunday across parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Deep South. Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and scattered to widespread damaging winds should be the primary threats. ...TN/Lower MS Valleys and the Deep South... Broken linear convection is ongoing from the Mid-South to the Lower Sabine Valley, along and just ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move east tonight. A relatively broad warm-moist sector heated into the 70s and low 80s earlier, and has supported a plume of MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg. As a well-defined shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley to northeast TX progresses east into the Central OH Valley and Deep South, an extensive QLCS will evolve from the TN Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-QLCS convection across LA should persist with eastern extent across the Gulf Coast States. Very strong 850-700 mb winds (65-80 kt) should be prominent from the Ark-La-Miss to central parts of MS/AL northward. This flow regime should support widespread strong gusts with embedded severe swaths, yielding scattered to widespread damaging winds, along with a threat for mesovortex tornadoes. After coordination with WFO BMX, have expanded the level 3-ENH risk northeastward in AL. The fast-moving QLCS will eventually outpace the warm-moist sector in the TN Valley/southern Appalachian vicinity. Farther south, the 00Z JAN sounding sampled a more deeply mixed air mass than progged by operational guidance, with mean-mixing ratios near 11 g/kg. Rich boundary-layer moisture closer to the Gulf Coast suggests that semi-discrete supercells merging into the southern portion of the QLCS would be the more favored scenario for a few longer-lasting/strong tornadoes overnight. ..Grams.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0009 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0099 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 152349Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Pre-frontal supercells may mature over the next few hours as they track across northeast LA into west-central MS. Tornado risk will increase if this occurs. Will continue to monitor for possible Tornado Watch immediately downstream into Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour or so, pre-frontal convection has gradually increased across central into northeast LA, especially from Rapides to Caldwell Parish. This activity is not too organized at this time but there is some concern these storms may continue to mature within a strongly sheared environment, immediately ahead of the frontal convection. If so, tornado risk may increase accordingly. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32219222 33319116 32579049 31089223 32219222 Read more

MD 0100 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 8... FOR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...western Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 8... Valid 160009Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW008. Threat will continue downstream into portions of Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has shown an uptick in intensity over the last hour across the Arkansas/Tennessee border. Line embedded supercells are observed, with activity ahead of the main line also exhibiting rotation. The low level jet, with axis currently from central LA to middle TN/southern KY, is progged to continue strengthening through the evening, with low level shear becoming more favorable. This strong southerly flow has also ushered in deeper moisture and a more favorable air mass across western Tennessee, steadily approaching southern Kentucky. Given the progress of the main line, maintenance of individual cells ahead of the line will be difficult. However, deep layer shear of 50-55 kts will continue to support line embedded mesocyclones and potential for damaging wind and tornadoes. This threat is spreading eastward and will likely necessitate a downstream watch into southern Kentucky soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35189070 36118999 36868928 37178815 37208772 37198710 37198685 37058629 36928623 36678629 36198647 35498716 35198750 35018794 35038807 35018830 35028869 34968928 34979029 35189070 Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..02/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-095- 103-107-117-123-139-147-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WOODRUFF LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123-127- 152340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 15 20:49:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0097 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Pennsylvania and northwest Maryland Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151750Z - 152145Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected with ice accretion of 0.05" to 0.1" is possible this afternoon across parts of south-central Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland. DISCUSSION...A broad area of low-level warm advection across the mid-Atlantic states is providing the lift for widespread precipitation occurring across the region. The transition zone from snow across the northern parts of the region to rain across the southern parts is currently across southwestern Pennsylvania into northeastern West Virginia, which should generally lift northeastward with time. The advance of the warmer mid-level air is apparent on KCCX radar with lowered correlation coefficient indicating melting of hydrometeors. However, the surface cold air has been slow to erode, with parts of south-central Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of Maryland remaining below freezing at the surface. A couple surface sites across south-central Pennsylvania and adjacent areas of West Virginia and Maryland are reporting unknown precip with temperatures below freezing, likely indicating a transition to freezing rain has begin. NAM forecast profiles this afternoon across parts of the region show classic freezing rain conditions, with a shallow layer of below-freezing air with a large warm nose aloft. One potential mitigating factor for ice accretion is that surface wet-bulb temperatures generally hover in the 30-32 F range, which is marginal for significant ice accretion. With time, expect the low-level cold air to erode and transition to all rain later this afternoon as the precipitation ends from west to east. ..Supinie.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39907979 40427946 40617901 40827861 40917805 40837758 40607696 40177676 39837700 39677752 39617790 39597834 39587885 39607951 39727974 39907979 Read more

MD 0098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern and eastern Arkansas and adjacent portions of northwestern Louisiana...northwestern Mississippi and western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151906Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development appears likely east of the Ark-La-Tex northeastward toward the Greater Memphis vicinity through 4-6 PM CDT. Initially this may include a risk for supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, before storms consolidate into an organizing line. DISCUSSION...A baroclinic zone on the northwestern periphery of warm, moist southerly return flow from the western Gulf has been reinforced by persistent warm advection driven weak convective development. Differential heating is contributing to strengthening of the thermal gradient, and a slow northward advancement of the front at the surface, toward the Memphis TN, Pine Bluff and El Dorado AR vicinities. Surface observations indicate that a focused area of stronger surface pressure falls (2-3+ mb/2 hourly) is already developing to the west/northwest of Little Rock as of 18Z, and models indicate that this boundary will become the focus for strengthening surface cyclogenesis later this afternoon into tonight. Upstream, it appears that a significant approaching short wave trough will maintain a general positive tilt as it progresses eastward across the southern Great Plains into early evening. However, models suggest that increasingly difluent/divergent flow ahead of it will contribute to increasing forcing for ascent along the frontal zone by 21-23Z. Although it is possible that this may remain largely focused above/just to the cool side of the front, there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient weakening of mid-level inhibition, in a narrow corridor just ahead of the front, to support thunderstorm initiation rooted within an unstable boundary-layer characterized by CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Within this regime, low-level hodographs, beneath 50+ kt south-southwesterly flow around 850 mb, are already sizable and clockwise curved, and conducive to the evolution of strong low-level mesocyclones with the potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35129106 35688911 34958950 34329039 33089205 32119322 32039392 33049363 33889275 35129106 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...20Z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. The well-defined shortwave trough and 80-100 kt mid-level jet are evident on WV imagery moving across west-central TX. Rapid surface cyclogenesis is expected later this afternoon/evening as the upper trough/jet overspread a broad frontal cyclone over the eastern Red River and MS Valley vicinity. Initial semi-discrete development along the warm front is expected this afternoon with continued heating and the approach of the stronger cold front over western AR. Southwesterly flow parallel to the frontal zone and little inhibition should support quick upscale growth into a more linear mode. Strong tropospheric flow (700 mb winds of 55-75 kt) will support the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts with the line, while strong shear could also support mesovortex tornadoes. Partial clearing in the wake of earlier convection east of the frontal zone will support diurnal heating and steepening of some low and mid-level lapse rates across far eastern AR, northwestern MS and southwestern TN. The decrease in inhibition while forcing for ascent is still relatively weak may support some potential for more discrete development. While it remains unclear if this will occur, the very strong low-level shear (0-1 km BWD 40+ kt) would support a conditional significant tornado threat with any prefrontal/warm sector supercells able to evolve. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast... The strongly forced squall line is forecast to translate rapidly across much of the Southeast late this evening and overnight. Strong low-level warm air advection and broad ascent ahead of the upper trough could support isolated discrete development, and a some strong tornado potential ahead of the line, especially farther south across southern MS/AL. However, poor lapse rates aloft lend low confidence to any discrete supercells being maintained. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornado will remain possible overnight. For more info see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...20Z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. The well-defined shortwave trough and 80-100 kt mid-level jet are evident on WV imagery moving across west-central TX. Rapid surface cyclogenesis is expected later this afternoon/evening as the upper trough/jet overspread a broad frontal cyclone over the eastern Red River and MS Valley vicinity. Initial semi-discrete development along the warm front is expected this afternoon with continued heating and the approach of the stronger cold front over western AR. Southwesterly flow parallel to the frontal zone and little inhibition should support quick upscale growth into a more linear mode. Strong tropospheric flow (700 mb winds of 55-75 kt) will support the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts with the line, while strong shear could also support mesovortex tornadoes. Partial clearing in the wake of earlier convection east of the frontal zone will support diurnal heating and steepening of some low and mid-level lapse rates across far eastern AR, northwestern MS and southwestern TN. The decrease in inhibition while forcing for ascent is still relatively weak may support some potential for more discrete development. While it remains unclear if this will occur, the very strong low-level shear (0-1 km BWD 40+ kt) would support a conditional significant tornado threat with any prefrontal/warm sector supercells able to evolve. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast... The strongly forced squall line is forecast to translate rapidly across much of the Southeast late this evening and overnight. Strong low-level warm air advection and broad ascent ahead of the upper trough could support isolated discrete development, and a some strong tornado potential ahead of the line, especially farther south across southern MS/AL. However, poor lapse rates aloft lend low confidence to any discrete supercells being maintained. Damaging gusts and line-embedded tornado will remain possible overnight. For more info see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning potential will remain minimal across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. Monday. At the surface, cold high pressure will continue ridging southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie, resulting in stable conditions and a general lack of thunder potential. A flash or two cannot be ruled out across portions of the West, as a short-wave trough shifts southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest into/across the Great Basin. Showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, may also occur in the vicinity of the Florida Keys as low-level flow veers to a northeasterly direction in the wake of cold-frontal passage. Overall however, expect thunder potential to remain minimal in the aforementioned areas, and nil elsewhere. ..Goss.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong wind gusts are possible Sunday morning, particularly across portions of the Southeast but possibly as far north as the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A vigorous/fast-moving short-wave trough -- embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft -- will move quickly eastward across the eastern quarter of the U.S. Sunday. As this feature reaches the Atlantic Coast/New England by evening, lower-amplitude/westerly flow will evolve across much of the rest of the country. At the surface, sharp cold front should extend from an eastern Ohio low, southward roughly along the Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle. This front will move steadily eastward/southeastward, and should clear the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast during the afternoon. During the evening and overnight, the occluding/parent low is forecast to shift across New England, while the trailing front moves eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of America through Sunday morning. In the wake of this front, Arctic air will gradually spread southeastward across the Plains/Midwest, and eventually the Northeast. ...Southeastern U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region... A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period near the advancing cold front. The greatest coverage of lightning is expected from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Gulf Coast, where a well-organized squall line should be ongoing from central Georgia to the Florida Panhandle. Modest CAPE across this part of the area will support deeper updrafts, and thus greater potential for some downward transport of high-momentum flow aloft. Risk for subsequent strong-to-severe gusts at the surface appears sufficient to warrant an upgrade to SLGT risk across southern Georgia, northern Florida, and central and eastern parts of the Florida Panhandle. Storms should reach/clear the South Carolina and Georgia coasts around midday, ending the risk over all but northern Florida, where wind risk should gradually diminish as weakening convection shifts southward through the afternoon. Farther north, weaker instability will limit convective intensity/depth, with lightning expected to be generally more isolated/sporadic with northward extent. Still, with very strong flow aloft preceding the upper trough, stronger, fast-moving convective elements may still produce gusty winds, and thus potential for minor damage locally as far north as the Chesapeake/Delmarva area until the primary band of storms moves offshore through mid afternoon. ..Goss.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this afternoon through the overnight. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough over the Permian Basin pivoting east through the base of a larger scale trough forecast to shift from the Rockies east into the MS Valley. A complex surface pattern is evident with a low over OK with an accompanying trailing cold front, while a maritime boundary/residual frontal zone is draped over east TX arcing northeastward into the MS/AR/TN border region and then southeastward into the northeast Gulf of America. As the cyclone consolidates and moves eastward this afternoon into AR, the aforementioned composite boundary will advance northward as a warm front into the Mid South and towards the southern Appalachians late. The cold front is forecast to push southeast and overtake the western portion of the warm sector late today into tonight and provide a focus for numerous developing thunderstorms in the form of a squall line. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has resulted in scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of the warm front from AR east into TN. Southerly flow will promote poleward moist advection with 60s deg F dewpoints spreading north across the lower MS Valley into parts of the Mid South. The destabilizing warm sector will remain capped during the day before stronger large-scale ascent approaching from the west results in a extensive thunderstorm development from the Ark-La-Tex northeast into eastern AR/western TN/KY. Filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop by mid afternoon near or on the cold front from east TX into the Mid South. Only a narrow window of opportunity for supercells will likely occur before rapid upscale growth into an extensive squall line by early evening. Strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes beginning from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line will likely remain limited but will be greatest perhaps over the southern parts of MS/AL tonight. However, if cellular structures are maintained in the large-scale thunderstorm band, an accompanying risk for tornadoes may focus there and with any bowing inflections in the line. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup with relatively modest lapse rates and moist profiles, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the squall line as it matures. Have increased damaging wind probabilities from parts of MS into AL where confidence is greatest for damaging gusts later tonight. A continued tornado/damaging wind risk will become increasingly confined to the Gulf coastal plain late tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. ..Smith/Supinie.. 02/15/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 15 16:47:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Another cold front will push southward late this afternoon into tonight in the Elevated area/vicinity shifting the winds to northerly with decreasing temperatures and increasing RH. No changes are necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more