SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more

MD 0083 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Far Northwest Arkansas...Far Southwest Missouri...Far Southeast Kansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 120725Z - 121330Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma overnight, with precipitation rates locally exceeding 0.10 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery near the Four Corners. This feature will move quickly eastward across the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains late tonight into the early morning hours. Large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave will increase across the southern Plains, which will aid the expansion and intensification of precipitation that is already ongoing. At the surface, cold air advection is occurring over much of the southern Plains. Surface temperatures are currently below freezing in most of western and northern Oklahoma into parts of central Oklahoma. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop over the next few hours, as an area with heavier precipitation moves east-northeastward across Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor late tonight have a warm layer of +2 to +4 C between 700 and 800 mb. With sub-freezing surface temperatures, this will result in freezing rain over much of Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates are expected to locally exceed 0.10 inches per hour within the heavier convective showers. Short-term model forecast suggest that the precipitation will eventually move into parts of the western Ozarks near or after daybreak, where precipitation may change over to moderate snow, with the development of heavy snow possible. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35039600 34529795 34419886 34419939 34489971 34729995 35120007 35619997 36049962 36449896 36899706 37319469 37319385 37149347 36759323 36279333 35949376 35659437 35039600 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Saturday... Model guidance continues to forecast a strong upper-level trough moving through the southern Plains and into the Southeast. Some modest slowing of the trough has been noted, however. The trough will promote the deepening of the surface low in the ArkLaTex vicinity during the afternoon with further deepening expected into the evening as it generally progresses north-northeastward within the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Moisture return will have begun Friday evening and will continue Saturday. Guidance shows a consistent signal for mid 60s F dewpoints extending into much of Louisiana/Mississippi, and Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible closer to the Gulf Coast. Very strong wind fields are anticipated throughout the troposphere. Shear will be strong and, despite more modest mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy will be more than adequate for severe storms. The current expectation is for warm advection precipitation to be ongoing early in the period and for it not to make much, if any, southward progress until the late afternoon. A Pacific front in East Texas/Sabine Valley into the ArkLaTex may be the initial zone for stronger convective development. By the late afternoon onward, the cold front will begin to surge south and east. The low-level jet should remain strong into the afternoon and then increase to 50-70 kts during the evening. As the cold front surges, shear vectors will acquire a greater cross-boundary component. This strongly forced line will be capable of scattered to widespread damaging winds along with the threat for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. One of the main questions that remain will be the degree of the tornado threat, which would increase with any discrete activity ahead of the cold front. Given the weak capping and strong forcing, pre-frontal discrete storms are plausible. The ECMWF shows some hint of this from central Louisiana into adjacent Mississippi. The eastern and northern extent of the greatest severe threat are also in question, but the intense low-level jet could produce severe-caliber gusts even with relatively shallow convection. The overall pattern, along with signals in both deterministic and ML guidance, suggest 30% severe probabilities are warranted for Saturday. ...Day 5/Sunday... The strongly forced line will continue into portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind-fields will remain in place. The main question will be the degree of destabilization that can occur. The current forecast guidance suggests the line may move through these areas late morning/early afternoon. Uncertainty in the thermodynamic environment precludes severe probabilities at this time, but areas of eastern Virginia into parts of the eastern Carolinas will continue to be monitored. ...Day 6/Monday Onward... With cold air moving into much of the CONUS east of the Divide, severe potential appears low during the remainder of the period. Some moisture return could occur in coastal Texas next Tuesday, but a cold front is expected to quickly push back offshore. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will give way to strengthening southwesterly flow as a strong trough moves through the Southwest on Friday. Late in the period, moisture return will begin within the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. A surface low will evolve southward from the central High Plains to the Red River region by Saturday morning. Warm advection will intensify as the trough nears the southern High Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are expected from the ArkLaTex into Mid-South/lower Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms are possible farther south into East Texas and Louisiana, but warm air aloft leads to less certainty in development. Increasing shear and elevated instability will potentially promote a few stronger storms. However, modest mid-level lapse rates and plentiful storm interactions are expected to limit the severe threat. Small hail may occur, but the coverage of marginally severe hail appears too uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plain...Western and Central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120808Z - 120915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat, with strong wind gusts and hail, is expected to develop late tonight into early this morning across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into parts of western and central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains late tonight. In response, moisture advection will continue across the Texas Coastal Plain. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near Laredo northeastward to northwest of Victoria to near College Station. The stronger convection is located to the west of this boundary. The RAP has MUCAPE varying from around 500 J/kg in southeast Texas to near 1500 J/kg in south Texas. As low-level moisture advection continues overnight, instability will gradually increase. Most RAP forecast soundings to the west of the front have a low-level temperature inversion, with effective shear above the inversion in the 50 to 60 knot range. This could support a marginal severe threat with the stronger elevated cores, with hail possible. As convective coverage increases, surface-based storms may develop near the front. The stronger cells could have marginally severe gusts, in addition to hail. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29239601 28519726 28309777 28319806 28439815 28759808 29459760 30319671 31089569 31789456 32109386 32199334 32219289 32139262 31899240 31509247 31109280 30819317 30539368 29989481 29239601 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough and associated strong jet streak will move through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England through the day on Thursday. Strong flow will extend southward into the Southeast and North Florida. In California, a strong upper trough will impact the northern/central coast late in the period. A cold front is forecast to be near the Alabama/Georgia border in the morning and move eastward and offshore by the afternoon. A few thunderstorms may occur in the southern Appalachians/Piedmont before weakening as they encounter less stable air to the east. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern/central California as strong forcing and cold temperatures aloft move inland. Severe weather is not expected in either area. ...Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama/Georgia... A line of convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. Waning instability should generally limit the overall strength of the line and low-level wind fields will be weakening with time as well. However, at least a few hours of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are the expected hazards. There is some uncertainty as to where the line of convection will be. The current probabilities attempt to capture the envelope of model solutions. Adjustments will likely occur as confidence increases in placement. ..Wendt.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts will be the primary concerns. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S. during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels, a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast. Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions (e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs. a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL. Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime. ..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 12 02:30:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of the Texas-Louisiana border vicinity through tonight. ...TX into LA... Early evening surface analysis places a front across south Texas into the coastal shelf waters south of Galveston Bay and into south-central LA. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly east across northwestern Mexico and through the base of a larger scale trough over western North America. This mid-level disturbance is forecast to move into central TX by 12/09z and east TX by mid morning tomorrow. A corresponding intensification of flow fields and QG ascent is expected late tonight across south TX and eventually near the Sabine Valley towards 12/12z. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 7.3 deg C/km on the 12/00z Corpus Christi, TX upper-air sounding) and ample moisture will facilitate storm development later tonight. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms beginning initially near the Rio Grande and spreading east while increasing in coverage. A few of the stronger storms may exhibit rotation and perhaps yield an isolated risk for hail/wind. Elsewhere, the northeast extent of the TX frontal zone is located over the central Gulf Coast this evening. The gradual diminishing of instability and convergence with the front will likely promote continued weakening of convection this evening from the central Gulf Coast into central AL. Have removed low-severe probabilities to account for this observed and likely continuation of storm weakening in the short term. ..Smith.. 02/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 11 22:37:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0082 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111949Z - 112345Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to 0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later this afternoon. ..Moore.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39697503 39597727 39497808 39297861 39027876 38647871 38157822 37727772 37477737 37357681 37327624 37597546 37947527 38287504 38927472 39397424 39607435 39667473 39697503 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... By the end of Day 3/Thursday, a longwave trough is expected to be over the northeastern CONUS while a shortwave trough begins to move onshore near southern CA. This feature will traverse the Southwest and Southern Plains this weekend. Increasing mid-level flow near the base of this trough, and the surface pressure gradient on the western periphery of an associated cyclone, should support breezy west-northwesterly surface winds across much of the Trans-Pecos and the Big Bend of TX Day 5/Saturday. Confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities within this area, where fuels will likely remain receptive to fire starts. However, some initial cold air advection accompanying a Pacific front may keep RH above critical thresholds and an increase in probabilities has not been considered at this time. A modified Arctic air mass encompassing most of the CONUS east of the Rockies and generally weaker surface winds will limit the overall fire weather threat into Day 6/Sunday. Increasing orthogonal mid-level flow across the southern Rockies D7/Monday, however, will induce lee pressure falls. A return to relatively dry southerly surface winds across the Southern Plains, and increasing westerly downslope over eastern NM and the Trans-Pecos are anticipated by this time. Confidence isn't high enough to warrant low probabilities for these areas yet given the timing and depth of another approaching Pacific shortwave trough, though this area will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. A similar scenario and low confidence may apply to Day 8/Tuesday across far southern NM and the western Trans-Pecos ahead of another cold front. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... By the end of Day 3/Thursday, a longwave trough is expected to be over the northeastern CONUS while a shortwave trough begins to move onshore near southern CA. This feature will traverse the Southwest and Southern Plains this weekend. Increasing mid-level flow near the base of this trough, and the surface pressure gradient on the western periphery of an associated cyclone, should support breezy west-northwesterly surface winds across much of the Trans-Pecos and the Big Bend of TX Day 5/Saturday. Confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities within this area, where fuels will likely remain receptive to fire starts. However, some initial cold air advection accompanying a Pacific front may keep RH above critical thresholds and an increase in probabilities has not been considered at this time. A modified Arctic air mass encompassing most of the CONUS east of the Rockies and generally weaker surface winds will limit the overall fire weather threat into Day 6/Sunday. Increasing orthogonal mid-level flow across the southern Rockies D7/Monday, however, will induce lee pressure falls. A return to relatively dry southerly surface winds across the Southern Plains, and increasing westerly downslope over eastern NM and the Trans-Pecos are anticipated by this time. Confidence isn't high enough to warrant low probabilities for these areas yet given the timing and depth of another approaching Pacific shortwave trough, though this area will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. A similar scenario and low confidence may apply to Day 8/Tuesday across far southern NM and the western Trans-Pecos ahead of another cold front. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into parts of Mississippi and Alabama through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments to the thunder area. A well-defined cold front, quickly moving over the southern Plains and western MS valley, will likely continue to undercut the modified Gulf air mass over parts over southern TX. Increasing large-scale ascent over the western edge of the moist sector and cold front will support a gradual increase in convective coverage over south-central and west TX this evening and into the overnight hours. Weak to moderate elevated buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear could support a few organized elevated supercell or bowing structures with a risk of hail or an isolated damaging gust over south TX tonight. Weak buoyancy will also likely extend across northern OK and the Ozarks supporting a risk for scattered thunderstorms. Have extended the thunder area farther northeast for lightning potential late tonight. Across the southeast, recent model guidance suggests storms may persist a bit farther east into parts of AL/GA. While buoyancy will be very weak, inland advection of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints could sustain some elevated thunder potential late tonight. ..Lyons.. 02/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/ ...South TX to MS/AL through tonight... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface cold front in the Houston area, on the edge of surface temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints near 70 F. The proximity VWP from HGX shows modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature and stronger flow above 5 km AGL, with some potential for organized storm structures within the band. However, the cold front is also tending to undercut the storms, which casts doubt on the severe storm potential in the short term. Farther east, warming temperatures in cloud breaks and a gradual increase in low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization through the afternoon. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor, though surface temperatures of 75-80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Shallow convection is likely in the open warm sector, but thunderstorm potential will be focused along the front where low-level ascent will be maximized later this afternoon/evening. Assuming a couple of storms can form along the front, there will be the potential for isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, thunderstorm coverage should increase along and immediately north of the front across south central TX, as a midlevel shortwave trough near Baja ejects east-northeastward. Midlevel lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range and moistening atop the frontal surface will support MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, while effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt/long hodographs will be sufficient for elevated organized/supercell storms capable of producing isolated large hail and possibly wind damage. Read more