SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of far east Texas into much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats. A few strong tornadoes are also possible. Intense thunderstorms should develop by late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Strong low-level warm advection has encouraged elevated thunderstorms early this morning from parts of AR into the Mid-South and TN Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe, with poor mid-level lapse rates hindering updraft strength and hail potential. A pronounced upper trough over the Southwest this morning will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains today, eventually reaching the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast late tonight. A broad area of surface low pressure is forecast to consolidate through the day, with the primary surface low expected to deepen as it develops east-northeastward across the Mid-South and lower OH Valley this evening. An attendant cold front will eventually move east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley and much of the Southeast this evening and overnight. Ahead of the approaching upper trough and deepening surface low, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the lower MS Valley. While lapse rates aloft should remain fairly modest, filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening will aid in the development of around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon. Current expectations are for robust, surface-based thunderstorms to develop by 20-22Z along or just ahead of the cold front from far east TX towards the Mid-South. While this activity may initially be supercellular, nearly all guidance suggests a quick transition to a more linear mode by early evening. Even so, very strong 0-3 km shear, aided by a 45-55+ kt low-level jet, will easily aid updraft rotation and organized severe thunderstorms. Ample low-level shear will support a threat for several line-embedded tornadoes from late this afternoon through early Sunday morning. The potential for supercells ahead of the line remains unclear. But, any supercells embedded within the line could produce strong tornadoes given the enhanced low-level shear. Otherwise, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds will likely occur with the line of convection as it spreads eastward across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Gulf Coast states this evening and overnight. Isolated significant severe gusts appear possible where the best overlap of strong low/mid-level flow and adequate buoyancy is forecast, mainly across parts of the ArkLaMiss into western TN. Some adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends, including across parts of AL/GA where a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will likely continue through the end of the period as the line advances eastward in a weak but sufficiently unstable airmass. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An Arctic cold front is expected to surge south and east across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Day 4/Tue. Some thunderstorm potential is possible across the TX Coastal Plain ahead of the front as southerly low-level flow allows northward transport of Gulf moisture. Some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will exist across southeast TX during the late afternoon/evening. However, current forecast guidance suggests convection may be elevated due to poor low-level lapse rates and convection becoming quickly undercut by the surging front. Currently, the overall threat appears limited in space and time, though some low-end probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. An Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Day 5/Wed, resulting in very cold and stable conditions through the end of the period. This will preclude thunderstorm potential beyond Day 4/Tue. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to dig across the western U.S. while quasi-zonal flow emerges east of the Rockies on Monday. At the surface, strong high pressure will encompass much of the CONUS, with a prior cold frontal passage penetrating south across most of the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture over most of the country. Some modest moisture may return to coastal TX as a lee low develops near the southern High Plains in response to the deepening southwestern U.S. upper trough. However, thunderstorm chances are not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Behind a departing trough, high pressure will build in aloft with height rises across much of the western/central US. In addition, a post-frontal cool air mass will be in place across much of the central US on D2 - Sunday, supporting higher relative humidity across the southern Plains. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor analysis shows a mid-level trough currently located across the southwestern US. A deepening surface low is also noted across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle, with gusts to 20 to 40 mph already occurring across much of the central high/southern Plains. The western trough is expected to eject across New Mexico today into the southern Plains, with an increase in surface winds expected as the surface low and attendant cold front shift eastward. Behind the front across portions of southwestern and far western Texas, dry conditions are expected with strong westerly to northwesterly flow around 20-25 mph (gusting around 40-50 mph) and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10%). Though a few hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent fuels guidance suggest ERCs are largely below the 50th percentile. The exception would be a small portion of Big Bend and areas west of Pecos right along the Mexico border. Though fuels are expected to experience drying, small overlap of sufficiently dry fuels with the highest likelihood of sustained critical meteorological conditions leads to low confidence in including any Critical areas at this time. Locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the lee of the high terrain. ..Thornton.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z. Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity, severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by 21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore. ..Leitman.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas and Mid-South into much of the Southeast. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb jet is currently digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley. This feature is forecast to translate into far West TX early in the period, then increase in intensity as it ejects into the downstream side of the upper trough during the overnight hours. Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to overspread much of the lower MS/TN Valley region, with upwards of 210m expected across northern areas by the end of the period. This evolution will induce a surface low across north-central TX early which will track into eastern AR by late afternoon, then deepen as it lifts into the OH during the overnight hours. LLJ should respond markedly and focus across the lower MS Valley during the first half of the period. Boundary-layer air mass is currently cool/stable across this region with modified Gulf air just now approaching the upper TX coast and southern LA. Until this air can advance inland any thunderstorm activity should be elevated in nature, and likely sub-severe. Latest thinking is boundary-layer recovery will occur across east TX into southern AR by late morning, then further destabilization should contribute to surface-based buoyancy that will support potentially robust thunderstorms ahead of the aforementioned surface low/cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong shear across this region with 0-3km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2. Supercells are expected to develop along a corridor from northern LA into western TN from the afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes are expected. Additionally, given the strength of the wind fields, and very dynamic, fast-moving trough, there is a risk for strong tornadoes. Frontal convection should expand in areal coverage as the boundary surges southeast. During the latter part of the period, a secondary corridor of concentrated severe may evolve from southeast LA, across southern MS into southern AL. Strong LLJ will shift east overnight, and somewhat higher theta-e air mass should have advanced inland into this region ahead of the surging cold front. While damaging winds can be expected with the more linear convection, some risk for strong tornadoes does exist with more discrete supercells. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Great Basin into the central High Plains. More widespread weak thunderstorm activity is likely across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley this evening and overnight. ...01z Update... Strong mid-level jet is digging southeast across the lower CO River Valley toward northern Mexico. Cooling/steepening profiles, north of this jet, have resulted in a fairly large area of at least weak buoyancy from the Four Corners region into southern WY. As a result, isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms are currently noted, largely aided by diurnal heating. Additionally, weak convection over the central High Plains has recently attained heights necessary for lightning discharge, immediately ahead of the surging cold front. Have adjusted thunder probabilities to account for lightning with this activity for the next several hours. Downstream, low-level warm/moist advection is contributing to increasing elevated instability across east TX into the lower MS Valley. Parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will gradually become more unstable overnight, likely exhibiting more than 500 J/kg MUCAPE, and more than adequate for lightning. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 14 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 14 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z An upper-level bifurcated trough will move into and over the West late Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday as deep upper-level troughing exits the eastern US. The two smaller troughs are likely to merge over the central US mid-week, with a strong upper-level jet oriented northwest to southeast over the Rockies. A strong cold front will push south down the Plains and into the Southeast and Southwest Day 4/Monday - Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Southwest through the southern High Plains will receive little to no precipitation in the next week. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest onto Southern High Plains... Lee troughing will develop across the southern High Plains Day 4/Monday with strong westerly flow aloft. Gusty westerly winds amid critically low RH is expected to develop from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into far southwest Texas Day 4/Monday. A cold front pushing south down the Plains into the Southwest will limit the spatial extent of critical fire weather conditions on Day 5/Tuesday. However, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are possible from southeast Arizona into the Trans-Pecos. Additionally, gusty northerly winds amid low RH is likely in the Lower Colorado River Valley. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm development is likely across parts of the southern Great Basin into Four Corners vicinity, and across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, late this afternoon into evening. More widespread weak thunderstorm development is probable across Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley late this evening into early Saturday. ...20Z Outlook Update... Above a residual cold/stable boundary-layer, a moistening southerly return flow is in the process of developing off the western Gulf Basin. Associated destabilization, rooted around the 850 mb level, has supported the initiation of some thunderstorm activity within a broader convective band across parts of southern Louisiana into southeastern Texas, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by warm advection. However, warming farther aloft is ongoing, and likely to increasingly suppress thunderstorm development near northwestern Gulf coastal areas into this evening. To the north-northeast of this regime, strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and destabilization are likely to support a more concentrated area of thunderstorm development focused across the Arkansas into lower Ohio Valley vicinity, downstream of the significant short wave trough forecast to dig across the southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the northern Mexican Plateau by 12Z Saturday. Beneath the mid-level cold core of this trough, ongoing insolation is contributing to boundary-layer destabilization across the southern Great Basin through Four Corners region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles will become supportive of widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning, before this potential diminishes during the evening with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will advance from the Southeast to Coastal Carolinas during the day Sunday while a strong surface low will continue to deepen across the Northeast. A strong cold front will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast during the daytime period. ...Carolinas to North Florida... A line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the southern Appalachians to the central Florida Panhandle. Ahead of this line, in the lee of the Appalachians, cold air damming will start to erode with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints in place and weak instability. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level flow will be in place which could result in some damaging wind gusts mixing to the surface within the squall line. By late morning, some heating could result in greater instability across the eastern Carolinas which could lead to some re-intensification of the squall line before it moves off the coast during the afternoon. Farther south across southern Georgia and north Florida, somewhat greater instability will be in place which may maintain a damaging wind threat through the morning and early afternoon. However, forcing will be weaker across this region which should limit the overall threat. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The Elevated area was expanded based on the most recent high-resolution forecast guidance. Dry and windy conditions will extend ahead of a cold front during the afternoon from the Trans-Pecos into portions of central Texas, with wind gusts of 25-50 mph and minimum RH of 12-25% expected. Locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Elevated area, but uncertainty exists regarding the duration and spatial coverage of critical conditions to introduce a Critical area. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Saturday morning to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. As this trough becomes negatively tilted after 00Z, the surface low will rapidly deepen by 10+ mb as it moves from central Arkansas to northeast Ohio. A cold front will extend southwest from this surface low and sharpen through the evening before advancing east during the late evening and into the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An expansive region of strengthening low-level flow will advance a broad warm sector northward across the Gulf Coast states Saturday morning. North of this warm front within a 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms are expected. Weak instability and shear should result in mostly sub-severe storms, but isolated large hail may be possible. Expect persistent thunderstorm activity along the diffuse cold front from far East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the morning to early afternoon with mostly sub-severe storms. However, richer theta-e will interact with the frontal zone by mid-to-late afternoon which should result in deeper, more robust updrafts. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread the warm sector, promoting stronger deep-layer shear. Supercells are anticipated from southeast Arkansas to southwest Tennessee by this time with a threat for all severe weather hazards including the potential for a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. However, this window of more discrete storm mode will likely be fairly limited as the cold front starts to surge east around 00Z and a squall line develops. The environment ahead of this squall line will remain favorable for severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes through the evening. Eventually this squall line will encounter weaker instability across central/eastern Tennessee and Alabama and the severe weather threat will likely start to wane. One exception may be across far southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle. After 06Z, some influence of the approaching mid-level vorticity maximum could result in more robust convection across this region where greater instability will remain. The low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen across the region during this timeframe with STP values peaking perhaps around 2 to 3. 12Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for some pre-frontal development late in the period, but they are not overly strong at this time. If more robust pre-frontal storms become likely, in addition to the QLCS threat associated with the squall line, greater tornado probabilities could be needed across this area. ..Bentley.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the West. This feature will amplify through late tonight as a 100-kt 500mb speed max moves through the base of the trough and into northern Sonora and Chihuahua. A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend downstream of this upper trough into the southern Great Plains northeastward through the OH Valley. The gradual moistening of a low-level conveyor belt from the northwest Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley will facilitate shower/thunderstorm development beginning late this evening but mainly into the overnight. Despite lee cyclone development initially over eastern CO today but evolving into western OK tonight, a cool low-level airmass of continental origin will only slowly modify across the Mid South. As a result, the poleward transport of moisture atop a cool boundary layer will promote elevated buoyancy ranging from around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE over southeast OK to 250 J/kg in the lower OH Valley. Relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates will probably limit overall updraft vigor and thereby limit hail potential (perhaps locally sub severe) with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more