SPC Feb 19, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure and a cold, Arctic airmass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture behind a cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 19, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today through tonight. ...West-central coast of FL Peninsula... An organized QLCS is expected to evolve just off the MS River Delta over the north-central Gulf by 12Z this morning. 00Z HREF guidance is consistent in depicting this QLCS moving southeastward along the northern periphery of the Loop Current, with a weakening trend as it progresses across the cooler waters of the northeast Gulf. Remnants of this MCS should reach the west coast of the FL Peninsula, roughly centered on the Tampa Bay area at peak heating in the afternoon. Despite favorable time of day, poor lapse rates above a shallow boundary layer and modest large-scale ascent owing to dampening of the parent low-amplitude shortwave trough should help mitigate an appreciable severe risk. But with an increase in low-level flow accompanying the decaying MCS, locally strong gusts along the immediate coast are possible. ..Grams/Thornton.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 19, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and localized severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... Overall forecast scenario appears to be evolving as anticipated. Elevated convection over southeast TX/southwest LA will have the best chance at producing marginally severe hail along the eastern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates, sampled upstream by the 00Z FWD sounding. An increasingly predominant cluster convective mode is anticipated with time tonight, limiting the hail threat amid weaker lapse rates with eastern extent across LA. Guidance continues a slightly southward trend to placement of the warm front overnight near the LA coast as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf. With ongoing convection curtailing northward displacement of the stable surface air mass inland, these trends suggest the wind/tornado threats should remain spatially confined along the immediate coast near the MS River Delta. ..Grams.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 19, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTH LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across south Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and localized severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast TX and south LA... Overall forecast scenario appears to be evolving as anticipated. Elevated convection over southeast TX/southwest LA will have the best chance at producing marginally severe hail along the eastern periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates, sampled upstream by the 00Z FWD sounding. An increasingly predominant cluster convective mode is anticipated with time tonight, limiting the hail threat amid weaker lapse rates with eastern extent across LA. Guidance continues a slightly southward trend to placement of the warm front overnight near the LA coast as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf. With ongoing convection curtailing northward displacement of the stable surface air mass inland, these trends suggest the wind/tornado threats should remain spatially confined along the immediate coast near the MS River Delta. ..Grams.. 02/19/2025 Read more

SPC MD 116

3 months ago
MD 0116 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190001Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee. Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK... LAT...LON 36199081 37389042 37878993 38068914 37978804 37858767 37538701 37378687 36828672 36458661 35628715 35118774 35078876 35158957 35399041 35479063 35929094 36109086 36199081 Read more

SPC Feb 18, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... In the wake of a cold front exiting the Florida Peninsula, strong surface high pressure (1040+ mb) and an Arctic air mass will settle over much of the CONUS on Thursday. Prevalent cold and stable conditions are expected to considerably limit thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 18, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Low-level warm-air and moisture advection are already underway across coastal portions of TX and LA, as indicated by 19Z mesoanalysis. Current thinking is that the low-level warm-air/moisture advection will continue to increase and boost elevated CAPE to 1000 J/kg along the coast with the approach of a mid-level impulse currently situated over NM. Elevated thunderstorms should develop later this evening. Mainly hail is expected given elongated hodographs. However, if any supercellular structure can materialize along the southeast LA coast and become rooted in the boundary layer tonight, a damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Read more

SPC MD 114

3 months ago
MD 0114 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS...FAR NORTHEASTERN OK AND THE OZARK PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern KS...far northeastern OK and the Ozark Plateau Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 181820Z - 182345Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across portions of eastern KS and the Ozarks over the next few hours. Rates of 1-1.5 in/hr are expected within the heavier banding. DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and surface observations showed a broad area of winter precipitation ongoing over the Plains and beginning to shift eastward toward the Ozark Plateau. A pronounced band of heavier snow has slowly coalesced over the last couple of hours across portions of southeastern KS and northeastern OK. Likely supported by 850-700 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent, heavy snow with rates over 1" per hour have been observed. As ascent from the upstream shortwave trough continues to intensify, so to should the snow band as it gradually shifts eastward into parts of MO and northern AR. Hi-res model guidance and area RAP soundings generally agree with observational trends and suggest strengthening of the band is likely over the next several hours. Very cold low-level temperatures (teens to single digits) will support efficient dendrite generation with snow to liquid ratios in excess of 15:1. Confidence is highest that the heavier rates will occur generally along and south of I-44 across parts of northern AR and southern MO through this evening. ..Lyons.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 38309384 38089168 37839048 37408956 37318946 36628951 36489018 36119161 36009271 36159440 36839512 37789510 38199456 38309384 Read more

SPC MD 115

3 months ago
MD 0115 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into central Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 181833Z - 182230Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet are possible from east-central Oklahoma into portions of central Arkansas. Deeper cold air will push into the region by this evening and a transition to primarily snow is expected at that time. DISCUSSION...A band of precipitation driven by warm advection continues to increase along and near a low-level boundary. The 18Z observed LZK sounding showed a small increase in the strength of the warm nose near 800 mb as compared to the observed 12Z sounding. Some low-level dry air remains, but this should saturate with time. Given the depth of the cold air, some mix of sleet and freezing rain appear possible. Sleet will be more likely with any more convective elements as steeper mid-level lapse rates were noted on the observed soundings. Into southeast Oklahoma into southern Arkansas, temperatures are above freezing currently. Some locations could see temperatures at or below freezing as precipitation starts and diabatically cools the profile. By evening, colder air should push into the region and a transition to primarily snow will likely occur. ..Wendt.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 34469189 34349212 34409294 34499327 34619402 34939517 35039546 35199587 35559600 35889608 36179583 35779386 35339200 35159161 34829141 34469189 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited across the country for the extended period. An arctic air mass over central portions of the country and widespread recent rainfall across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will continue to limit fuel status for most locations east of the Rockies. Long-range ensembles shows limited potential for widespread precipitation across southern AZ/NM and into the southern High Plains, which may result in some drying/curing of fine fuels through the end of the work week. Periods of localized elevated conditions appear possible as a weak upper disturbance passes over the region later this week, but, weak signals for 20+ mph winds coincident with dry conditions in both deterministic and ensemble solutions suggests limited potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited across the country for the extended period. An arctic air mass over central portions of the country and widespread recent rainfall across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will continue to limit fuel status for most locations east of the Rockies. Long-range ensembles shows limited potential for widespread precipitation across southern AZ/NM and into the southern High Plains, which may result in some drying/curing of fine fuels through the end of the work week. Periods of localized elevated conditions appear possible as a weak upper disturbance passes over the region later this week, but, weak signals for 20+ mph winds coincident with dry conditions in both deterministic and ensemble solutions suggests limited potential for critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed; fire weather concerns appear minimal for Wednesday across the country. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed; fire weather concerns appear minimal for Wednesday across the country. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 18, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 18, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 18, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 113

3 months ago
MD 0113 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OK into northwest AR and extreme southwest MO Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 181348Z - 181645Z SUMMARY...Light to locally moderate freezing rain and/or sleet is possible this morning. Increasing snow rates are possible by late morning across northeast Oklahoma and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Light precipitation is gradually increasing this morning across parts of central/eastern OK, in response to warm advection near/above 850 mb atop a southward-advancing arctic airmass. The 12Z OUN sounding depicts saturation primarily below a notable temperature inversion around 700 mb. In the short term, given the relatively shallow saturated layer and lack of deeper ascent above this layer, a period of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will be possible, with relatively efficient ice accretion in areas where near-surface temperatures fall through the 20s F. With time, deeper/stronger ascent will result in locally heavier precipitation rates later this morning. This may be accompanied by an transition to sleet and snow (especially with northward extent), due to continued near-surface cold advection and wet-bulb cooling of the initially dry layer near 700 mb. Snow rates may begin to increase by late morning across northeast OK and vicinity, with locally heavy snow possible this afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35729755 36679734 37079643 37039450 36179406 34359354 34229401 34719468 34859503 34789559 34549622 34219700 33929779 34189828 34879786 35269768 35729755 Read more
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