SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Trans Pecos. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager low-level moisture. As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours. Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm advection and related lift should encourage showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the marginal thermodynamic environment forecast. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the northern Rockies/Plains through much of the Midwest on Day 4/Mon. A prior cold frontal passage into the Atlantic and Gulf waters will leave a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. An upper trough will deepen on Day 5/Tue, moving from the Southwest and Great Basin to the Atlantic coast by Day 8/Fri. A weak surface low may develop across Texas on Day 5/Tue ahead of the upper trough, allowing some moisture return across southeast TX. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, but severe potential appears limited. The Arctic front will continue to progress eastward, moving offshore the Gulf coast by Day 7/Thu morning. A very cold and dry airmass in the wake of this system will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS late in the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will develop northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A large area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east through the day, moving offshore the Atlantic coast and into northern/central FL in the 21-00z time frame. Mid-60s F dewpoints will likely remain confined to the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA, with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints developing northward into the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Diurnal heating will remain limited, and lapse rates are forecast to be weak. However, strong deep-layer flow and modest instability (up to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) may be sufficient for strong gusts at the surface, even in the absence of much lightning. While instability will be somewhat stronger further south across FL/southern GA, large-scale ascent will rapidly lift northeast of the area during the morning, but vertical shear should still be sufficient for some organized convection. While overall severe potential appears limited given a generally poor/weak thermodynamic environment, strong background flow should support at least sporadic strong/locally damaging wind potential. As such, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced ahead of the cold front across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity. Given uncertainty in frontal position at the beginning of the period, and how much northward destabilization may occur, some adjustment to the outlook area in subsequent outlooks may be necessary. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to shift eastward and deepen across the southern Plains on D2 - Saturday. Moisture return will be ongoing across portions of eastern/central Texas eastern Oklahoma and the southeastern US. Further west across far western Texas, windy and dry conditions are expected amid a warm/dry westerly downslope flow regime. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and sustained winds 20-25 mph will overlap. Recent fuel guidance would suggest that fuel moisture is above normal in this region, though some drying can be expected on D1 - Friday. As a few additional hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions are forecast on D2 - Saturday, additional response in drying of grasses and fine fuels will support maintaining an Elevated risk across portions of far western Texas. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the overnight hours. ...Mid-South and Southeast... An upper trough will migrate east across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow, characterized by a 500 mb jet streak around 80-100 kt, will overspread the region, mainly near/after 00z. As stronger height falls approach the ArkLaTex and MS Valley, a low-level jet greater than 50 kt will develop from LA into TN/KY. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly low-level flow will allow 60s F dewpoints to march northward, reaching as far north as western TN. Boundary-layer moisture into the mid-60s F is expected to remain south of the MS/TN border. A surface low is expected to deepen during the afternoon into the nighttime hours as it tracks from AR to OH. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep east/southeast from late afternoon into early Sunday. Warm advection across this boundary will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms from east TX into the Lower OH Valley for much of the day. This will limit the northward extent of the advancing warm sector, with a warm front expected to stall across TN into northern GA. Large-scale ascent is not expected to overspread the region until evening, so open warm sector convection likely will remain limited diurnally. By late afternoon, more robust convection is expected to develop along the sharpening cold front from eastern AR into east TX/western LA within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and strong vertical shear. A QLCS producing a swath of damaging gusts is likely to move across the region through the overnight hours. Favorable low-level shear, characterized by enlarged, looping hodographs suggests tornadoes also will be possible with mesovortex formation along the line, in addition to any line-embedded supercells. A more conditional threat exists with any supercells that can develop ahead of the line in the open warm sector, something that remains uncertain at this time. Any cells that do develop ahead of the line will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts, and could also pose a risk for increasing tornado potential as they interact with the QLCS. The north and east extent of the severe risk areas remains a bit uncertain, in part due to cold air damming into the southern Appalachians and how much this is able to erode. A general decrease in boundary-layer moisture and instability is expected with northeast extent during the overnight hours. However, the expected intense deep-layer wind field will likely maintain some damaging wind and tornado risk into AL and perhaps parts of western GA. ..Leitman.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the western trough moves inland across the Great Basin today, westerly flow aloft will overspread the central and southern Rockies. As a result, a lee cyclone will develop east of the Rockies, with an increase in surface winds across the southern/central Plains. Relative humidity reductions are expected to be limited, largely remaining above elevated and critical criteria. Some limited elevated concerns may be possible across portions of far southern New Mexico, especially in favorable downslope regions in the lee of the higher terrain, where lower relative humidity will be possible. Overall, marginal relative humidity reductions will limit the fire-weather threat. ..Thornton.. 02/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive longwave pattern will be highlighted by an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin/Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies, with lee cyclogenesis occurring across the central and southern High Plains. A few thunderstorms may occur mainly this afternoon across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners, while thunderstorms are expected to increase tonight across the Ozarks/Mid-South to Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. ...Ozarks/Mid-South... Initial height falls and cyclonically influenced westerlies will reach the region late tonight, with a substantially increasing and east/southeastward-shunting low-level jet and related robust elevated moisture transport. Parcels should gradually reach their LFC with scattered elevated convection (generally based 800-900mb) becoming increasingly capable of lightning overnight. MUCAPE could reach 750+ J/kg coincident with a long/semi-straight hodograph in the cloud-bearing layer. However, mid-level lapse rates will not be overly robust with relatively tall/thin elevated buoyancy. While some hail could occur early Saturday morning (9z-12z/3-6am CST) in areas spanning northern/eastern Arkansas to western Tennessee, current expectations are for hail magnitudes to generally remain below severe thresholds given the marginal thermodynamic environment. The overall severe hail potential is currently expected to remain below 5 percent. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur this evening across coastal southern California. ...California... Some convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur across coastal southern California this evening in association with a low-topped organized convective line ongoing near the LA Metro area. Local WSR-88D VWP data suggests around 40-50 kt west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, while the 00z observed sounding from Vandenberg sampled around 100 J/kg SBCAPE. Otherwise, the potential for some stronger storms over the interior valley of central California is expected to steadily diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools and the parent shortwave trough continues eastward tonight toward the Great Basin. ..Guyer.. 02/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 13 22:50:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS, with a surface low deepening across the eastern CONUS on Day 3 (Saturday). Downslope westerly surface flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southwestern Texas Saturday afternoon, overspreading drying fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS as surface high pressure and associated colder air overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions through much of next week. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across southern portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into southwestern Texas. However, confidence in widespread Critical conditions is low at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Central Valley of California... Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s, with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range, supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Southeast... The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast. Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front, deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken, with additional weakening expected through the rest of the afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the Southern Plains on Saturday and eventually into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. During this period, a surface low will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley with an extensive warm sector across the Southeast. ...Southeast... The warm sector will be rapidly destabilizing Saturday morning across the Southeast as mid 60s dewpoints surge north off of the Gulf. As elevated thunderstorm activity expands within a broad area of isentropic ascent across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a large region of precipitation will develop and likely mark the northward extent of the warm frontal surge. This appears to be somewhere near the MS/TN border into southeast Arkansas. South of this warm front, a moderately unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as temperatures warm into the 70s. However, forcing should be weak across the warm sector with the majority of thunderstorms expected to remain along the frontal zone. Severe diurnal thunderstorm activity will likely be located from East Texas into western Louisiana where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present within a confluent region along/ahead of the surface front. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Eventually, likely after 00Z when the stronger mid-level forcing arrives, a squall line will start to advance east across the Southeast. This squall line will pose a threat for widespread severe wind gusts and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the cyclonically curved and long low-level hodographs. Some pre-frontal convection may develop ahead of the line late in the period, but lesser instability by this time will likely limit the intensity of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern/central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, promoting breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. While this may favor pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are modestly receptive (portions of west TX and southeast NM), marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas. ...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South... As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South. Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear, but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited. Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection. ...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners... Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy will be minimal and severe weather is not likely. ..15_ows.. 02/13/2025 Read more