SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...01z Update... Offshore flow, due to the presence of a dominant surface high, has shunted meaningful moisture/buoyancy well south/east of the CONUS. Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 24 21:28:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 24 21:28:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more