SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC MD 143
MD 0143 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of western and central Iowa into southern Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050517Z - 050915Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should occur for at least a few more hours. Occasional blizzard conditions remain possible. DISCUSSION...A surface low over northern MO continues to deepen while tracking toward the Great Lakes. Across the northwest quadrant of the surface low, surface observations from western IA into southern MN have shown north-northwesterly surface winds exceeding 35 kts amid heavy snow and visibility reduced to at least a half mile in spots. These conditions should continue across the northwestern quadrant of the surface low for at least a few more hours, as also suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44109207 42059332 40649425 40119454 39959500 40169562 41069612 41569616 42939607 43749573 43949535 44739408 45219303 45169243 44919209 44109207 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of western and central Iowa into southern Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050517Z - 050915Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should occur for at least a few more hours. Occasional blizzard conditions remain possible. DISCUSSION...A surface low over northern MO continues to deepen while tracking toward the Great Lakes. Across the northwest quadrant of the surface low, surface observations from western IA into southern MN have shown north-northwesterly surface winds exceeding 35 kts amid heavy snow and visibility reduced to at least a half mile in spots. These conditions should continue across the northwestern quadrant of the surface low for at least a few more hours, as also suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44109207 42059332 40649425 40119454 39959500 40169562 41069612 41569616 42939607 43749573 43949535 44739408 45219303 45169243 44919209 44109207 Read more
SPC MD 144
MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23... FOR FAR EASTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern Alabama and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23... Valid 050536Z - 050730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected along the surging squall line. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line continues its eastward progression at roughly 30kt. While buoyancy remains weak, very strong ESRH is noted ahead of the convection. Latest 1km VAD winds at FFC are 70kt and this may continue to favor stronger flow mixing down as the linear MCS advances east over the next few hours. With time, forecast soundings do suggest convection will gradually weaken, perhaps limiting the downward transfer of flow. Until then, damaging winds are likely along the line. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 32268529 34688492 34598395 32078440 32268529 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern Alabama and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23... Valid 050536Z - 050730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected along the surging squall line. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line continues its eastward progression at roughly 30kt. While buoyancy remains weak, very strong ESRH is noted ahead of the convection. Latest 1km VAD winds at FFC are 70kt and this may continue to favor stronger flow mixing down as the linear MCS advances east over the next few hours. With time, forecast soundings do suggest convection will gradually weaken, perhaps limiting the downward transfer of flow. Until then, damaging winds are likely along the line. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 32268529 34688492 34598395 32078440 32268529 Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears neglible. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by 12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night. This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. ...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies... A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and orographic forcing for ascent. ...Cape Cod vicinity... Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm advection may still be contributing to elevated convective development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday, before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning, and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY. The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible, with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA where low-level moisture will be greater. ...VA south to north FL... A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH. While instability will likely be greater with southward extent, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 22 Status Reports
WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 22 Status Reports
WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PNS TO 10 E MGM. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-035-039-041-051-053-101-050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA MONTGOMERY FLC033-091-113-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ633-634-635-636-650-655-050540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PERDIDO BAY AREA Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 22
WW 22 TORNADO AL FL CW 042340Z - 050700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 22 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and South-Central Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential including the risk for tornadoes will increase through early/mid-evening especially across southwest Alabama, and eventually parts of the western Florida Panhandle and south-central Alabama. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of Mobile AL to 45 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 22 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and South-Central Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential including the risk for tornadoes will increase through early/mid-evening especially across southwest Alabama, and eventually parts of the western Florida Panhandle and south-central Alabama. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of Mobile AL to 45 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 Status Reports
WW 0023 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MGM TO 30 WNW AUO TO 30 WSW CHA. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-015-017-019-027-029-049-055-081-087-109-111-113-123- 050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE DEKALB ETOWAH LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC015-045-047-053-055-057-063-067-077-083-089-097-111-113-115- 121-123-129-143-145-149-197-199-213-215-223-227-231-233-255-259- 263-285-295-307-313-050540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MGM TO 30 WNW AUO TO 30 WSW CHA. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-015-017-019-027-029-049-055-081-087-109-111-113-123- 050540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE DEKALB ETOWAH LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC015-045-047-053-055-057-063-067-077-083-089-097-111-113-115- 121-123-129-143-145-149-197-199-213-215-223-227-231-233-255-259- 263-285-295-307-313-050540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DEKALB DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23
WW 23 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 050325Z - 050900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Western Georgia * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 925 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk for wind damage, and possibly a brief tornado risk, from eastern Alabama into western Georgia. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Rome GA to 20 miles east southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Western Georgia * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 925 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk for wind damage, and possibly a brief tornado risk, from eastern Alabama into western Georgia. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Rome GA to 20 miles east southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 24 Status Reports
SPC MD 140
MD 0140 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050120Z - 050515Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to become more common through early tonight. Sustained winds over 40 mph are possible amid intermittent bouts of moderate to heavy snow and quarter-mile visibilities. DISCUSSION...A surface low, analyzed just east-northeast of the Kansas City metropolitan area, continues to drift northeast while gradually deepening. The northwest quadrant of this low continues to overspread portions of extreme eastern NE into western IA, where deep-layer cold-air advection is supporting the transition from rain to snow. Surface observations and correlation coefficient data from KOAX NEXRAD radar indicate the rain/snow transition line roughly from Crawford to Fremont Counties in IA, with surface northwesterly winds intensifying to over 30 kts west of this line. The expectation is for sustained surface winds to reach 40 mph in spots, with increasing snowfall rates (perhaps briefly reaching 1 inch/hour) over the next few hours. Such conditions may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less. Additionally, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus suggests that blizzard conditions are most likely across western IA in the 02-08Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40249688 40929684 41939659 42419633 43079549 43309480 43189418 42959391 42589392 41989430 41179480 40699525 40339576 40109647 40249688 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050120Z - 050515Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to become more common through early tonight. Sustained winds over 40 mph are possible amid intermittent bouts of moderate to heavy snow and quarter-mile visibilities. DISCUSSION...A surface low, analyzed just east-northeast of the Kansas City metropolitan area, continues to drift northeast while gradually deepening. The northwest quadrant of this low continues to overspread portions of extreme eastern NE into western IA, where deep-layer cold-air advection is supporting the transition from rain to snow. Surface observations and correlation coefficient data from KOAX NEXRAD radar indicate the rain/snow transition line roughly from Crawford to Fremont Counties in IA, with surface northwesterly winds intensifying to over 30 kts west of this line. The expectation is for sustained surface winds to reach 40 mph in spots, with increasing snowfall rates (perhaps briefly reaching 1 inch/hour) over the next few hours. Such conditions may reduce visibility to around a quarter mile or less. Additionally, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus suggests that blizzard conditions are most likely across western IA in the 02-08Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40249688 40929684 41939659 42419633 43079549 43309480 43189418 42959391 42589392 41989430 41179480 40699525 40339576 40109647 40249688 Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 Status Reports
SPC Tornado Watch 22 Status Reports
WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MOB TO 35 WSW SEM TO 25 SSE TCL. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-021-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-065-085-097-099- 101-105-129-131-050340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA HALE LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-050340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-050340- Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MOB TO 35 WSW SEM TO 25 SSE TCL. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-021-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-065-085-097-099- 101-105-129-131-050340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CHILTON CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA HALE LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-050340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-050340- Read more
SPC Mar 5, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will continue into the evening and overnight hours across portions of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A strongly forcing QLCS will continue to move across portions of southern MS/southeast LA and AL this evening, shifting east into the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. While instability will remain modest, very strong deep-layer flow fields will support robust damaging wind potential. Likewise, strong low-level shear, as evident in regional VWP data indicates potential for a few tornadoes. Tornado potential will mostly be confined the Gulf coast into southern AL where at least some potential for surface-based convection exists amid dewpoints in the low 60s F. Otherwise, strong to damaging gusts will be possible near the QLCS, with diminishing potential with northward extent as instability wanes toward northern AL/TN/KY. ..Leitman.. 03/05/2025 Read more
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