Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 7 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 7 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The Day 2/Saturday fire-weather forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical area based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more