WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BPT TO 20 WNW POE TO 20 E ELD TO 15 SSW LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-041-043-069-079-139-041840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN UNION LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-049-053-059-061-067-069-073- 079-083-111-113-115-123-127-041840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND UNION Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AR LA TX 041415Z - 042100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 300 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken squall line will continue east into the Watch area this morning. A destabilizing airmass near and immediately ahead of this strong to severe thunderstorm activity will aid in a severe risk continuing eastward through the early afternoon. Scattered severe gusts and a risk for tornadoes will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Pine Bluff AR to 60 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW UTS TO 30 W TXK TO 30 NNW DEQ TO 20 WNW FSM. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-113-127-133-041540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER POLK SCOTT SEVIER OKC001-079-135-041540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR LE FLORE SEQUOYAH TXC037-067-073-183-203-315-343-401-459-041540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CASS CHEROKEE GREGG HARRISON MARION MORRIS RUSK UPSHUR Read more

MD 0129 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 18... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 18... Valid 041222Z - 041445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues. SUMMARY...A squall line with history of damaging winds may remain severe as it approaches the Arkansas border. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front remains over northeast OK and extending southward roughly near the OK/AR border. Pressure falls are currently strong in this region with over 2 mb falls per hour noted. As such, it is likely that the low-level jet is transporting higher theta-e air northward, perhaps just off the surface. Therefore, while surface observations otherwise indicate weak/marginal instability extending into the northwest AR area, it is not inconceivable that the line remains severe into those areas with damaging wind potential. Depending on storm trends, an additional small watch cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34919399 34539419 34389508 34209577 34819575 35529579 35799602 36229565 36349505 36409407 36259392 34919399 Read more

MD 0130 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ARKLATEX INTO THE SABINE VALLEY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Arklatex into the Sabine Valley and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041349Z - 041545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind, and eventually tornado risk exists over the area, ahead of the cold front and near and south of the warm front. A watch may be considered. DISCUSSION...Although a greater threat of severe storms including tornadoes is expected into the afternoon, some severe risk may persist with the ongoing early day activity as a line of storms continues east out of TX and eastern OK. 12Z soundings indicate a capping inversion near 700 mb, by virtue of relatively cool surface conditions near the warm front. However, very strong southerly winds above the surface with the low-level jet, as well as areas of daytime heating will allow for a growing area of concern across the developing warm sector, including much of LA and into MS. In the near term, robust storms persist along the cold front over northeast TX, with a few counties width of warm sector west of the warm front. At least a few hours of severe risk likely remains in this area, prior to expected diurnal maximum, and a watch will likely be needed to address this early threat. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31159476 31429509 31829522 32449501 33549478 33809458 33929411 33919374 33819323 33569266 33149227 32349199 31639206 31169219 30919278 30899330 30959413 31159476 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0020 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N CLL TO 30 SW TYR TO 40 NNE TYR TO 25 E PRX TO 40 SW RKR TO 30 SSE MKO. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-113-127-133-041440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER POLK SCOTT SEVIER OKC001-021-079-089-135-041440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC001-037-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-315-343-387-401-423-449- 459-041440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP Read more

WW 18 TORNADO AR OK TX 041010Z - 041700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 18 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southern and Southeast Oklahoma Central into North and Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 410 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A mature squall line will continue to quickly move eastward across the Watch area this morning. The potential for severe gusts (60-75 mph) and a tornado risk will accompany the squall line. A possibility also exists for a few storms to develop ahead of the squall line and a threat for tornadoes and large hail may occur with this potential activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Poteau OK to 25 miles southeast of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-043-097-109-119-145-209-213-041440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY OKC041-097-115-041440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 19 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 041245Z - 041700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southwest Missouri Far Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning from 645 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue northeast into the Watch area, and likely pose a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps a threat for a brief tornado, with the more intense portions of the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Muskogee OK to 20 miles northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

MD 0128 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 18... FOR NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...north Texas into southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 18... Valid 041113Z - 041315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds likely to persist across north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. A brief tornado remains possible as well. DISCUSSION...A squall line has gained strength and speed over the past few hours, and will continue to push east across northern TX and southeastern OK. Widespread strong to damaging winds are likely, with substantial/cold downdrafts augmenting the already strong boundary-layer wind gusts well ahead of the line. Recently, a gradually deepening line of convection was noted near Waco, stretching north and intersecting the squall line as it moves into the Metroplex. This intersection may prove favorable for enhanced severe winds over 75 mph, along with stronger cyclonic shear. Given the continued push to the shortwave trough and strong low-level jet, this line should remain severe for several more hours. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31599658 31309751 31259839 31429844 31959805 32479772 33319745 33969720 34689705 35239640 35189583 34679553 33429577 32459603 31969629 31599658 Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0018 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more