SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK/TX... A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100 knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large scale lift overspreads the area. Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a significant short wave trough pivots northeastward away from the Mid Atlantic coast, models indicate that strong secondary cyclogenesis may occur across and north of the Canadian Maritimes late this week. In its wake, it appears that a confluent mid-level flow regime will generally prevail, downstream of large-scale troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast. As this troughing continues eastward, models indicate that one emerging short wave impulse may support fairly strong renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies on Thursday into Friday. It appears this will occur before western Gulf boundary-layer modification can support appreciable low-level moistening on southerly return flow. As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime, models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast, the severe weather potential still appears relatively low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America. Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis. Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying large-scale mid/upper troughing. A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late Tuesday night. Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while developing eastward through the day. Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to support extensive convective development across the interior U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells. Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster developing along/above a maturing cold pool Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential, particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today and eject into the Southern Plains tonight, encouraging rapid development and deepening of a surface low over the central Plains through the period. During the day and especially evening hours, a strong southerly low-level jet will develop across the southern and central Plains as an 80-100 kt 500 mb jet streak pivots around the mid-level trough and overspreads the low-level jet axis. At the same time, modified boundary-layer moisture will advect northward, promoting marginal instability across the warm sector ahead of the surface low. The net result will be increasing deep-layer ascent, supporting thunderstorm development amid strong unidirectional shear profiles. A squall line should develop later tonight and promote severe potential, with all severe hazards possible. ...Central and southern Plains this evening into tonight... A southerly 850 mb jet increases to well over 50 kts after sunset, overspread by at least 80 kts of southerly 500 mb flow, contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. A surface cold front will surge eastward after 00Z across western OK/TX, supporting thunderstorm development. While supercell structures may develop initially, rapid upscale growth is expected given linear forcing (e.g. unidirectional vertical wind profiles above the boundary layer). The best chance for large hail will be with the more discrete storm structures, thereafter, severe gusts become the primary concern with squall line development. Overnight, low 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of TX into central OK beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates as temperatures above the boundary layer cool with the approach of the upper trough, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, boundary-layer lapse rates appear to be poor in some deterministic guidance, raising some concerns as to how much appreciable surface-based buoyancy can materialize tonight. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with a noticeable degree of curvature in the 0-3 km layer, potentially yielding up to 500 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Such shear profiles amid marginal instability would favor a QLCS tornado threat if said instability can become surface-based. At the moment, confidence is not overly high in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. However, higher severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if greater boundary-layer buoyancy becomes apparent. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more