MD 1191 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern OK and north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080327Z - 080530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop later tonight. DISCUSSION...A band of cumulus remains evident late this evening on IR imagery across parts of southern OK into north-central/northwest TX, near a weak confluence zone. One attempt at convective initiation appears to be underway near the Red River, and 00Z CAM guidance continues to indicate potential for storm development later tonight across the region. Aside from modest low-level warm advection, large-scale ascent may remain relatively nebulous, resulting in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and duration into the overnight hours. However, rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and favorable deep-layer shear will support a conditional supercell threat if any storms can become sustained within this environment. Watch issuance is possible if development of multiple severe storms appears to be imminent. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34249545 33319538 32919541 32789590 32729718 32669805 32369922 33009995 33459994 34079966 34329769 34349587 34249545 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389... FOR ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of northern MS/AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389... Valid 080429Z - 080600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated severe storms may continue into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to potentially severe storms are ongoing in a corridor from southern AR into northern MS. The environment remains favorable for supercells, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg, and 40+ kt of effective shear. However, midlevel lapse rates are rather weak with warm temperatures aloft, and most storms thus far have struggled to maintain severe intensity. Some increase in storm coverage remains possible with time within a modest low-level warm-advection regime, including the potential for occasional supercells with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. With time, some severe threat may spread out of WW 389 to the east and south. Some local expansion of WW 389 may eventually be needed (where possible), but additional watch issuance into a less unstable environment across AL is uncertain, and will depend on short-term observational trends as storms approach the edge of the watch. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34259480 34609199 34849030 35128843 35188766 34488750 34008752 33688756 33288757 33028775 32669129 32619392 32859433 32939467 33249483 34259480 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST IL...SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern IN...western KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080450Z - 080615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out into the early morning. DISCUSSION...Small rotating cells have occasionally developed tonight along the southern periphery of a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving across parts of IL/IN. Midlevel lapse rates are quite weak across the region, and very little recent lightning activity has been noted with ongoing convection. However, earlier cells produced some damage across southeast MO, and the KPAH VWP depicts strengthening low-level flow and enlarging hodographs within a relatively moist environment. Ongoing convection may be capable of producing a brief tornado and/or localized wind damage into the early morning, before remaining convection eventually subsides. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 37438917 38038861 38728706 38718633 38558597 38038607 37418641 37118704 37058826 37078905 37438917 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061- 069-073-077-079-081-091-095-099-103-107-109-133-139-080440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA PHILLIPS PIKE SEVIER UNION MSC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-051-053-057- 071-081-083-087-093-095-097-103-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137- 139-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-080440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN ATTALA BENTON Read more

WW 389 SEVERE TSTM AR MS OK TX 080025Z - 080700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Far Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 725 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this evening along and south of an outflow boundary from earlier convection. The strongest activity may become supercellular and pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear possible, especially if one or more clusters can form over the next several hours. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of De Queen AR to 30 miles north northeast of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...WW 387...WW 388... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1188 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... FOR PARTS OF SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388... Valid 080136Z - 080300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 continues. SUMMARY...Some wind-damage threat may continue eastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS has continued to produce strong to locally severe gusts this evening, with a recent 52 kt gust observed at KCAE. While there has been some apparent decrease in convective vigor and lightning with this system, the presence of a well-established cold pool moving through a relatively warm, moist, and unstable environment will continue to support a wind-damage threat as the MCS moves eastward across SC. Nocturnal cooling/stabilization should eventually result in a more definitive weakening trend later tonight, though some isolated wind-damage threat could spread east of WW 388 with time. Somewhat more isolated convection along the southern periphery of the remnant MCS could also pose an isolated severe threat. ..Dean.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34548120 34698061 34598008 34357989 33727982 33397983 33038007 32808036 32728059 32588087 32568122 32668149 32898155 34548120 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW OGB TO 30 S CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC009-017-027-055-061-075-079-085-080340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAMBERG CALHOUN CLARENDON KERSHAW LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW OGB TO 30 S CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC009-017-027-055-061-075-079-085-080340- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAMBERG CALHOUN CLARENDON KERSHAW LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 388 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 072310Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Eastern Georgia Western and Central South Carolina * Effective this Saturday evening from 610 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster will continue to move quickly eastward across parts of western and central South Carolina over the next several hours. Scattered damaging winds will be the main threat with this activity before it eventually weakens later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Columbia SC to 25 miles southeast of Augusta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...WW 387... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of storms will progress across the Carolinas with a continued damaging gust threat. Thunderstorms, accompanied by an occasional wind/hail threat will also persist for a few hours this evening across the Southeast. A brief tornado remains possible with storms across portions of the Ohio Valley. Finally, strong storms may produce severe wind/hail along the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow is overspreading the central and eastern CONUS, with a pronounced mid-level trough currently traversing the Upper MS Valley. A belt of stronger mid-level flow and corresponding deeper-layer shear is overspreading the southern Plains to the southeastern Atlantic Coastline, where moderate to strong buoyancy remains in place. Despite overall weak synoptic forcing for ascent, multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms, driven by mesoscale forcing mechanisms, persist amid the aforementioned favorable buoyancy/shear to support a continued threat for severe convective hazards. ...Southern High Plains... Multiple supercell structures are in progress along the TX/NM border, and these storms will continue southeast along a diffuse baroclinic boundary with a continued severe wind/hail threat. This boundary extends from the central TX Panhandle into central OK. It is unclear if additional storms will form east along the boundary, and further south along the dryline into west-central TX given overall weak forcing. However, south of the boundary and east of the dryline, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE are in place, and modestly agitated CU prevail along the aforementioned boundaries. As such, Slight Risk probabilities were kept in place despite concerns for storm initiation and coverage given the conditional risk for severe wind/hail with any storms that manage to form. ...Southeast States... In the wake of an earlier MCS, ample diurnal heating has allowed for modification of the boundary layer, with surface temperatures able to reach 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding 2000-3000 MLCAPE amid weak MLCINH. Several strong thunderstorms have developed over southern AR and are poised to drift into MS and perhaps western AL into the early overnight hours. Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear overspreading this environment, severe gusts and hail are the primary concerns. ...Carolinas... A long-lived cold-pool-driven MCS continues to advance across SC, with a history of prolific damaging gust production (including measured severe gusts). This MCS is propagating eastward at roughly 40-50 kts, suggesting that the cold pool is still potentially deep/strong, with internal-forcing mechanisms such as a rear-inflow jet present. When also considering the mid to upper 80s F surface temperatures preceding the MCS, along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, ample buoyancy remains for continued damaging/severe gust production for at least a few more hours this evening, perhaps to the Atlantic Coastline. ...Portions of the OH Valley... A few small supercell structures, with a recent history of at least one tornado, persist ahead of a broadening MCV in eastern MO. Given ample buoyancy ahead of these storms across the OH Valley region, including 150+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, and at least modest amounts of vertical-oriented low-level vorticity, these supercell structures may persist with a sparse wind gust/tornado threat for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of storms will progress across the Carolinas with a continued damaging gust threat. Thunderstorms, accompanied by an occasional wind/hail threat will also persist for a few hours this evening across the Southeast. A brief tornado remains possible with storms across portions of the Ohio Valley. Finally, strong storms may produce severe wind/hail along the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow is overspreading the central and eastern CONUS, with a pronounced mid-level trough currently traversing the Upper MS Valley. A belt of stronger mid-level flow and corresponding deeper-layer shear is overspreading the southern Plains to the southeastern Atlantic Coastline, where moderate to strong buoyancy remains in place. Despite overall weak synoptic forcing for ascent, multiple areas of scattered thunderstorms, driven by mesoscale forcing mechanisms, persist amid the aforementioned favorable buoyancy/shear to support a continued threat for severe convective hazards. ...Southern High Plains... Multiple supercell structures are in progress along the TX/NM border, and these storms will continue southeast along a diffuse baroclinic boundary with a continued severe wind/hail threat. This boundary extends from the central TX Panhandle into central OK. It is unclear if additional storms will form east along the boundary, and further south along the dryline into west-central TX given overall weak forcing. However, south of the boundary and east of the dryline, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE are in place, and modestly agitated CU prevail along the aforementioned boundaries. As such, Slight Risk probabilities were kept in place despite concerns for storm initiation and coverage given the conditional risk for severe wind/hail with any storms that manage to form. ...Southeast States... In the wake of an earlier MCS, ample diurnal heating has allowed for modification of the boundary layer, with surface temperatures able to reach 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding 2000-3000 MLCAPE amid weak MLCINH. Several strong thunderstorms have developed over southern AR and are poised to drift into MS and perhaps western AL into the early overnight hours. Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear overspreading this environment, severe gusts and hail are the primary concerns. ...Carolinas... A long-lived cold-pool-driven MCS continues to advance across SC, with a history of prolific damaging gust production (including measured severe gusts). This MCS is propagating eastward at roughly 40-50 kts, suggesting that the cold pool is still potentially deep/strong, with internal-forcing mechanisms such as a rear-inflow jet present. When also considering the mid to upper 80s F surface temperatures preceding the MCS, along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, ample buoyancy remains for continued damaging/severe gust production for at least a few more hours this evening, perhaps to the Atlantic Coastline. ...Portions of the OH Valley... A few small supercell structures, with a recent history of at least one tornado, persist ahead of a broadening MCV in eastern MO. Given ample buoyancy ahead of these storms across the OH Valley region, including 150+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE, 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, and at least modest amounts of vertical-oriented low-level vorticity, these supercell structures may persist with a sparse wind gust/tornado threat for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025 Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0389 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AUO TO 35 SSE ATL TO 20 SSW AHN TO 25 N AHN TO 50 NW AND TO 40 SE TYS TO 20 NNE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-035-053-059-079-105-119-133-141-145-147-159-169-171- 195-197-207-211-215-219-221-237-257-263-265-269-293-301-317- 080040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BUTTS CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE CRAWFORD ELBERT FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS HART JASPER JONES LAMAR MADISON MARION MONROE MORGAN MUSCOGEE OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM STEPHENS TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR UPSON WARREN WILKES NCC087-099-173-175-080040- NC Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC059-080040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION TXC111-205-359-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HARTLEY OLDHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 387 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 072105Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northeast New Mexico The far northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two are expected to move southeastward off the Raton Mesa through this evening with an attendant threat for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, outflow gusts to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Clayton NM to 35 miles south southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385...WW 386... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC059-080040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION TXC111-205-359-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALLAM HARTLEY OLDHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 387 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 072105Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northeast New Mexico The far northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two are expected to move southeastward off the Raton Mesa through this evening with an attendant threat for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, outflow gusts to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Clayton NM to 35 miles south southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385...WW 386... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1184 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TN INTO NORTHEAST GA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast TN into northeast GA and parts of the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386... Valid 072238Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread eastward this evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with a history of wind damage is moving eastward across northern GA and vicinity early this evening. Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 40-48 kt range, and this system will likely remain capable of producing wind damage in the short term as it moves into northeast GA and western NC. While this MCS does not appear quite as intense as earlier today, the system still has a substantial cold pool and has retained its fast forward motion at generally 40-45 kt. Moderate downstream buoyancy and earlier strong diurnal heating may continue to support a damaging-wind threat as this MCS moves eastward this evening, eventually approaching the eastern edge of WW 386. Eventual weakening is expected later tonight with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, but the wind-damage threat may remain sufficiently organized to support downstream watch issuance in the next hour. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35538400 35778284 35608223 35108179 34648152 34098128 33398132 32928165 32918251 32968315 33058364 33228410 33928399 34668367 35538400 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1185 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of northwestern Mississippi...southern Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072314Z - 080115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initiation of widely scattered to scattered, intensifying thunderstorms appears underway, with the evolution of a couple southeastward/southward moving supercells possible through 7-8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis indicates a zone of weak confluence and warm advection, west-southwest of Memphis into southeastern Oklahoma, where deepening convective development is evident in visible satellite imagery. This is occurring beneath broadly cyclonic, 40-50+ kt west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, in the presence of a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer and modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse supportive of CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. The plume of elevated mixed layer air contributing to the steep lapse rates may also still be contributing to lingering inhibition, but guidance suggests that this is eroding, and the initiation of at least widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development may be underway. The evolution of a couple supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appears possible through 00-01Z, with some potential for a tornado, though low-level hodographs may remain modest. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34829536 34679308 34999135 34969036 34168943 33289110 33659527 34519599 34829536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AUO TO 35 SSE ATL TO 20 SSW AHN TO 25 N AHN TO 50 NW AND TO 40 SE TYS TO 20 NNE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-035-053-059-079-105-119-133-141-145-147-159-169-171- 195-197-207-211-215-219-221-237-257-263-265-269-293-301-317- 080040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BUTTS CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE CRAWFORD ELBERT FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK HARRIS HART JASPER JONES LAMAR MADISON MARION MONROE MORGAN MUSCOGEE OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM STEPHENS TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR UPSON WARREN WILKES NCC087-099-173-175-080040- NC Read more