SPC Jan 18, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 hours 31 minutes ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity. ...01Z Update... Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the southern Rockies. This has been preceded by the east-northeastward acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States. One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday. In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight. Even with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to weak destabilization. Latest model output continues to suggest that this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

7 hours 13 minutes ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

7 hours 13 minutes ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southern California... Within the base of a highly amplified, positive-tilt large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track southeastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, favoring strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will result in a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across southern CA (-6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG gradient), with moderate midlevel support across the area. Given reasonably good agreement in the development of single-digit to lower teens RH and strong/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been introduced for the wind-prone Santa Ana corridor (much of Ventura County, northern/western Los Angeles County, and portions of northern San Bernardino County) for Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. From Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, another shortwave trough should track southeastward across the Great Basin and Southwest, while an upstream ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. While noteworthy differences are evident among the medium-range guidance regarding this overall evolution, current indications are that surface high pressure will once again strengthen over the Intermountain West, favoring the potential for another dry offshore wind event across southern CA. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become more clear. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 hours 23 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 hours 23 minutes ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to the thunder line to reflect recent convective trends across central OK and trends in recent guidance. ...Central/Eastern OK... Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across southwest to central OK over the past few hours - likely the result of strong synoptic ascent/mid-level cooling within the left-exit region of the upper jet over central TX (which is also evident by steady surface pressure falls across OK/KS). Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible through late afternoon and the evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into AR and far southern MO. ...Eastern AL/far western GA... Recent HRRR solutions continue to suggest a slight increase in coverage of weak thunderstorms during the 10-12 UTC period early Friday morning across far eastern AL. Forecast soundings from other guidance seem to corroborate this trend with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into far western GA during this period. Given the convective signal and favorable environment, the thunder line was shifted east to account for low-end, early-morning thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

10 hours 6 minutes ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

10 hours 6 minutes ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of weak thunderstorms may exist over the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will dominate the pattern across the CONUS on Sunday. A continental polar airmass will be in place across the majority of the CONUS which will limit thunderstorm potential. The only exception will be the Florida Peninsula where some moisture will remain ahead of a southward moving cold front. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through the morning, but forcing will shift well north of the area by the afternoon which will likely bring an end to any thunderstorm potential. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

11 hours 31 minutes ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Tomorrow (Saturday), a high-amplitude mid-level trough associated with a cold airmass is forecast to overspread much of the central and eastern US. This trough will be accompanied by a strong jet maximum moving southward across the Intermountain West, which will bring dry and windy conditions to portions of Arizona and New Mexico. However, with generally cooler temperatures and a lack of receptive fuels, any fire-weather threat should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 hours 56 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

11 hours 56 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Northern Florida/Florida Panhandle... A large upper-level trough will amplify through the period on Saturday with eventual phasing of the southern stream and polar jet across the Southeast by 12Z Sunday. Low-level flow will be mostly weak through the day Saturday which will keep better low-level moisture offshore. Saturday night, low-level flow will start to strengthen which may bring mid 60s dewpoints inland across the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula. As the upper-level jet phases and consolidates, a surface low will start to deepen across the Southeast with a sharpening cold front. Thunderstorm activity is expected in the vicinity of this front Saturday night into early Sunday. If any storms can remain along or ahead of the surface front, a strong to isolated severe storm may be possible. However, the orientation of the front would seem to favor mostly anafrontal convection. Given the relatively weak instability forecast, elevated thunderstorms will likely not pose any severe weather threat despite the strongly sheared environment. ..Bentley.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 24 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

12 hours 24 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Despite the development of breezy/gusty surface winds across portions of west TX this afternoon, near/above-average fuel moisture should limit the potential for large-fire spread. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet will progress eastward from the southwestern US into the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a surface low developing and translating across the Southern Plains. Dry and gusty downslope winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into West Texas, followed by a cold front, with 20 - 30 MPH sustained winds and sub-20% relative humidity values. While the meteorological conditions are typically supportive of fire-weather highlights, ERC fuels guidance indicates that fuels are not particularly receptive to wildfire ignition or spread at this time. Any threat for wildfire spread will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

12 hours 45 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

12 hours 45 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day. As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley this evening and overnight. Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as well. ...Eastern OK into AR... Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL... Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above 900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

16 hours 50 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. ...Eastern OK into AR... Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are not expected. ...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast... As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB 500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the 50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting any severe threat. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Jan 17, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

19 hours 32 minutes ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storms are not forecast through the Friday/D8 time frame, with generally cool and stable conditions persisting. The large longwave trough will shift east out of the central CONUS especially on Tuesday D5, while additional waves or amplifications are expected from the Rockies into the Plains again from Wed/D6 into Friday/D8. Bouts of high pressure will be maintained over much of the CONUS as a result of this pattern, with little to no chance of appreciable low-level moisture return or destabilization over land. Read more
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