SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of central California eastward into the central High Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery has a pronounced dry slot extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. A mid-level low is located over northern Utah with an associated trough extending southwestward into California. Mid-level moisture is evident across much of the western U.S. from the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening near the low and the associated trough. Additional isolated storms could develop to the east of the low near a subtle shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Instability across the western U.S. is very weak which should keep any storm that develops below severe limits. ..Broyles.. 03/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more