SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening, posing some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific into western North America. The confluent eastern periphery of this regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified, seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more anticyclonic. As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains, in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin. ...South Central Great Plains... Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale ascent. It appears that this will be provided by the lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain. This may include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late Sunday afternoon. Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear, it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening. ...Central California into Great Basin... Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating, probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 28 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 28 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. An active and progressive mid-level flow pattern will result in multiple strong troughs passing over the southern US through this weekend and next week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels. The presence of very strong winds, and multiple days of low RH will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains... A series of strong mid-level troughs will rapidly progress eastward over the Southern Plains late this weekend and early next week. The first trough (D3/Sun) will move rapidly across the TX Panhandle and western OK as a strong surface low deepens. In the wake of the low, southwesterly low-level flow, aided by a 60-80 kt 500 mb speed max, will likely reach 25-30 mph with higher gusts. Post-dryline conditions will support low RH through the afternoon. Given the presence of very dry and locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading, widespread, potentially significant, critical fire-weather conditions are likely. Some uncertainty remains on the exact corridor of critical conditions given differences in the track of the surface low and the potential for some precipitation Sunday evening. Westerly flow aloft will quickly strengthen again D4/Mon as the second larger trough rapidly deepens over the Four Corners. The strengthening flow aloft will overspread a very warm and dry air mass across eastern NM and western TX. The very strong kinematic fields will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late D4/Mon into D5/Tues. While the exact details on the placement and strength of the low remain unclear, widespread and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern NM and western OK to central TX given the state of ongoing drought. Through the remainder of the week fire-weather concerns should be lower as cooler temperatures and some precipitation look to temporarily dampen fuels. ...Eastern US... As western US troughing intensifies through the week, eastern ridging should also steadily build, supporting a period of warm temperatures and dry conditions. As the strong trough/low move eastward over the central US D6/Wed, some strong winds along the cold front may overlap with the dry fuels. At least some risk for localized fire-weather conditions will be possible. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more