SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day, moving through the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of this wave, moving through Upper MS Valley late tonight/early tomorrow. Evolution of these two waves will help sharpen the cyclonic flow aloft over much of the Upper Great Lakes region and vicinity. At the surface, a low attendant to the central Plains shortwave trough was recently analyzed over central IA. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across southeast KS and western OK to another low over northwest TX. The central IA surface low is forecast to track eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period in the northern Lake Erie vicinity. As this low moves eastward, the attendant cold front will progress eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are expected along this front as it moves eastward. A few isolated thunderstorms also possible across northeast TX and the Arklatex late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here, a few elevated storms are possible behind the surface front, amid modest low/mid-level moistening and convergence along the 850-mb front. ...Mid-South into the Middle OH Valley... Limited moisture return is anticipated ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, but mid 50s dewpoints could be in place from southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN prior to the passage of the cold front. Cooling mid-level temperatures and surface temperatures in the upper 60s will combine with this limited low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this modest buoyancy, beginning around 21Z across the southeast MO vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along the front as it moves across the OH Valley, with the increasing large-scale ascent aiding the development of deep convection into areas where surface dewpoints are lower and buoyancy is scant. Deep-layer flow is strong enough to support some updraft organization, but the limited buoyancy is expected to keep updraft duration too short for much organization. As such, the severe-weather potential is low. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D6/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. ...D7/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Aloft however, there is significant disagreement regarding the amplitude of the larger scale wave on Tuesday. The less amplified GFS seems to be the outlier, with a more amplified solution preferred by most other extended range guidance. However, even the GFS would pose a severe weather threat across parts of East Texas into the Mid-Lower Mississippi Valley. The inherent uncertainty in a Day 7 forecast and the modest spread regarding the mid-level trough evolution make specific factors such as severe hazards and storm mode nebulous at this time. However, there is enough confidence in at least mid-60s dewpoints well inland with an ejecting large scale trough, to introduce broad 15% severe weather probabilities on D7/Tuesday from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. ...D8/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... Some severe weather threat will likely exist on Wednesday ahead of a squall line that may be ongoing along or ahead of the cold front. Uncertainties in the mid-level pattern on Tue/D7 will be further exacerbated on Day 8. In addition, it is unclear whether full moisture recovery will occur across the eastern Gulf ahead of the cold frontal passage. This will have significant implications on the moisture quality ahead of the front on Wed/D8 and thus the instability available. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... A closed upper low will approach the southern California coast on Friday. Model spread remains high for the location of this upper-level low. A ECMWF/GEM/EPS solution bringing the upper-low into southern California is preferred. As temperatures cool aloft, weak instability will develop across parts of southern California with isolated thunderstorms possible. The greatest thunderstorm potential will be late Friday night and early Saturday when the coldest temperatures aloft are expected to overspread southern California. Farther east, northerly flow will be present across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which will move through Thursday night. This northerly flow will slacken through the day which will prevent further scouring of Gulf moisture. However, this moisture will remain well offshore and thus, instability will remain weak across the eastern CONUS. No thunderstorms are anticipated east of the Rockies on Friday. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... A closed upper low will approach the southern California coast on Friday. Model spread remains high for the location of this upper-level low. A ECMWF/GEM/EPS solution bringing the upper-low into southern California is preferred. As temperatures cool aloft, weak instability will develop across parts of southern California with isolated thunderstorms possible. The greatest thunderstorm potential will be late Friday night and early Saturday when the coldest temperatures aloft are expected to overspread southern California. Farther east, northerly flow will be present across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which will move through Thursday night. This northerly flow will slacken through the day which will prevent further scouring of Gulf moisture. However, this moisture will remain well offshore and thus, instability will remain weak across the eastern CONUS. No thunderstorms are anticipated east of the Rockies on Friday. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level ridging is forecast to intensify today and tonight as split westerly flow develops over the CONUS. A low-latitude shortwave trough and enhanced flow aloft will overspread parts of the Southwest, while a cold front moves across the Great Plains. Dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the Southwest and behind the cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly flow aloft will overlap with dry and warm conditions across parts of southern AZ and NM. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels are around the 75th percentile for dryness with no recent precipitation. With afternoon RH below 15% and wind gusts of 15-25 mph several hours of elevated fire-weather potential appear likely within dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the cold front moves southward over the Plains, gusty northerly winds are expected over parts of southeastern CO and western OK/TX and KS. Afternoon min RH values of near 25% will overlap with gusts of 20-30 mph before temperatures begin to cool and RH increases. Some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible across the southern High Plains for a few hours later this afternoon. While area fuels are not overly receptive and should limit the broader fire-weather risk, little recent rainfall may support some fire-weather concerns within denser dry grasses over portions of OK/TX. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. ...Discussion... A mid-level jet streak across the Upper Midwest at 12Z Thursday will move quickly through the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and amplify the mid-level trough approaching the eastern CONUS. As this trough sharpens and the surface front becomes more defined, some weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of this surface front as temperatures warm into the 60s with dewpoints approaching 50F. The combination of weak instability and convergence along the cold front may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected. ..Bentley.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon an evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. Ahead of these features, dew points will increase into the mid to upper 50s into the Ohio Valley. The steady increase in moisture along with mid-level cooling from the trough will allow a narrow region of instability ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop from western Kentucky, southern Indiana north and eastward into the Great Lakes along the front and move eastward through the afternoon and evening. A stronger storm or two along the front in western Kentucky/southern Indiana could produce gusty winds, however, a relatively narrow corridor of instability and meager moisture will likely keep this threat low. Overall, mainly scattered sub-severe storms are expected. ..Thornton/Guyer/Lyons.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon an evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will shift eastward across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. Ahead of these features, dew points will increase into the mid to upper 50s into the Ohio Valley. The steady increase in moisture along with mid-level cooling from the trough will allow a narrow region of instability ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. Shower and thunderstorm activity will develop from western Kentucky, southern Indiana north and eastward into the Great Lakes along the front and move eastward through the afternoon and evening. A stronger storm or two along the front in western Kentucky/southern Indiana could produce gusty winds, however, a relatively narrow corridor of instability and meager moisture will likely keep this threat low. Overall, mainly scattered sub-severe storms are expected. ..Thornton/Guyer/Lyons.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the northern/central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...01z Update... Modifications were made to thunder to account for ongoing thunderstorm activity across South Dakota and Nebraska and to remove thunder chances across Colorado. As a shortwave impulse continues eastward this evening, cooling aloft and steep lapse rates will allow for sufficient instability for a few additional thunderstorms to develop across Nebraska and into portions of western Iowa/southern Minnesota. These are not expected to be severe. ..Thornton/Broyles.. 02/26/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 25 23:56:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 25 23:56:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0426 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 051200Z Overall fire weather concerns will generally remain low through the rest of the work week as a cold front and surface high progress southward into the Southern Plains and Rockies through D3/Thursday. The synoptic pattern will begin to transition late this week into the weekend. An upper ridge over the western CONUS will be impacted/broken down by a Pacific cyclone late this week, as it moves onshore near southern CA. Attendant to this feature, surface cyclogenesis will commence D5/Saturday across the Southwest over AZ and western NM. Confidence is now high enough to introduce low critical probabilities from southwestern NM into far southeastern AZ, where the associated pressure gradient will tighten and increasing mid-level south-southwesterly flow in the base of the low are expected. Similar conditions appear possible D6/Sunday into West TX and southern NM, though there are still uncertainties regarding both the progression/compactness of the first cyclone, and the approach of a second Pacific trough. Given the lack of recent rainfall across these regions, fuels should remain receptive to fire starts and spread regardless of exact weather conditions, and subsequent forecasts may result in the introduction of additional low probabilities D6/Sunday. Early next week, specifically D8/Tuesday, the aforementioned mid to upper trough is expected to impact the Rockies and Southern Plains. Widespread, increasing westerly downslope appears likely by this time. However, differences in the extended guidance regarding the timing, depth, and location of this feature leave confidence too low for an inclusion of probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern California. ...Discussion... An amplifying mid-level trough will continue to sweep eastward across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the system may support sufficient instability to permit isolated convective development -- and possibly a few lightning flashes. Greater potential for convection -- and associated lightning chances -- will remain offshore over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, a mid-/upper-level low will move eastward into northern and central California overnight. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support sporadic lightning, from within the broader area of convective precipitation. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more