SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 8 20:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 03/08/2025 Read more

MD 0156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081352Z - 081545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible through the morning. The southward extent of development is uncertain. DISCUSSION...The elevated supercells that earlier moved across parts of north-central into northeast TX have weakened somewhat, though a couple strong cells persist near the northeast Metroplex, while a small elevated bowing cluster is approaching the ArkLaTex region. The 12Z SHV/FWD soundings depict relatively cool profiles and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, though both also depict weak lapse rates in a saturated layer above 600 mb. With effective shear remaining favorable for organized convection, the ongoing storms may persist and at least occasionally pose a localized threat of hail and strong gusts, before generally moving into less-favorable instability with eastward extent. Farther south, rich low-level moisture (with mid/upper 60s F) is in place near and south of a cold front draped from central into northeast TX, with MLCAPE expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg later this morning. Recent HRRR runs depict storm development near and just south of this front later this morning into parts of east-central TX, possibly in response to a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across central TX. Should development occur in this area, deep-layer shear will support organized storms, with a somewhat greater conditional severe potential compared to areas farther north. The scenario of storm development this morning near the front or within the warm sector remains quite uncertain, but will continue to be monitored. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33419640 33449496 33229416 32519367 31619395 30969504 30689662 30959736 32559761 33419640 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more