SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 20:01:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 20:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0057 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...FAR EASTERN NEW YORK...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Pennsylvania...far eastern New York...Massachusetts...Vermont...New Hampshire Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 291639Z - 291845Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow-squall conditions are possible in stronger portions of a snow band over the next few hours. A rapid onset of moderate snow, gusty winds, and reduced visibility may all occur. DISCUSSION...A low-topped, progressive convective snow band has recently materialized, with a 10 F surface temperature drop, moderate snowfall rates, and half-mile visibility reductions noted on surface observations over the past couple of hours. This band is being driven by a progressive cold front and rapidly ejecting mid-level trough, which is also preceded by at least partially clearing skies. 16Z mesoanalysis shows up to 8 C/km low-level lapse rates downstream of the snow band, suggesting that snow squall potential may increase this afternoon in stronger convective cells. Bouts of at least moderate snowfall rates, as well as a 10 F temperature drop, 25+ kt gusts, and visibility reduced to a quarter mile, may occur with this band until it moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41657666 42767392 44517271 45077227 45297141 45007096 44297103 43157069 42667073 42357092 42067231 41747391 41617466 41617538 41657666 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more