SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude flow aloft is forecast to persist across the U.S. Wednesday, while a short-wave trough initially over the Colorado vicinity progresses east-northeastward into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. At the surface, a very weak surface wave -- along the persistent west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward from the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley area -- is forecast to move eastward along the boundary with time. Some minor northward wobble of the boundary may occur ahead of the low, but little overall frontal progression is expected through the period. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... As the aforementioned, weak surface wave moves east-northeastward, ahead of the associated upper disturbance, low-level southerly flow across the eastern U.S. will result in isentropic ascent of higher theta-e air atop the persistent surface baroclinic zone. As DPVA spreads eastward, the increase in quasigeostropic ascent combined with weak/elevated destabilization will result in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Most of the convection is expected to evolve during the second half of the period, spreading into the central Appalachians overnight. At this time, it appears that weak lapse rates will offset the increase in low-level theta-e advection, resulting in only minimal elevated CAPE atop the strongly stable boundary layer. Though shear will be plenty sufficient to otherwise support organized storms, the lack likelihood for any surface-based risk, and insufficient elevated instability to support large hail, suggests that severe risk will be minimal through the period. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, mid-level flow is west to west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. At the surface, pressure is relatively high over much of the nation. The resultant dry and cool conditions will make thunderstorms unlikely across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more