SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, westerly flow will be in place this evening into tonight across most of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in far northwest Washington, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Elsewhere across the nation, thunderstorms are not expected, mainly due to the influence of a high pressure system in the central and eastern U.S., which is associated with relatively cool and dry air. ..Broyles.. 02/02/2025 Read more

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 1 20:11:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more